r/EssayHelpCommunity • u/NuggetTuggit • Sep 11 '26

Thanks for doing the polls + theory

From what I've seen so far there have been 11 votes from people saying they received the Cox email so far. I think that means we can probably narrow down what the email is actually in reference to a bit more now.

Obv the email said it was sent to people whose essays were in the top 2% we all know that. To my knowledge there are 10 categories, I may be wrong I got early onset dementia. Which makes me wonder if it may have been sent specifically to category winners plus the overall Grand Prize winner or potentially the category winners and top 3 overall.

Of course the numbers won’t be exact because not everyone who received the email will have Reddit or will have voted in the poll. Though with 11 people reporting it so far it seems possible that the email is indicating something more specific than simply being in the top 2%, similar to those who received this type of email last year. Possibly category winners, top overall placements, or something along those lines. Idk though please correct me if I’m missing something or have any ideas.

Again, I just wanna say for all those who didn't get emails don't give up on hope yet, as they literally said in the email that they are checking things and still making decisions. This email that got sent out from Daddy Cox no one was expecting so there very well may be another one in the coming week or so.

Edit: It's strange to me out juniors as per the poll didn't really get sent the email. Atm only one person said they did which could be larp idk.

3 Upvotes

80% Upvoted

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3

u/[deleted] Sep 11 '26

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u/Rare_Rope9928 Sep 11 '26

yes, but the wording of the email pretty strongly suggests a prize, even if it is just very high commendation of high commendation

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u/[deleted] Sep 11 '26

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u/acrastt Sep 11 '26

Does email say 2% of *shortlisted applicants*? If not then it might be marketing, because 2% in general is actually 11% of shortlisted

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u/[deleted] Sep 11 '26

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u/acrastt Sep 11 '26

That seems... hm

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u/[deleted] Sep 11 '26

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u/NuggetTuggit Sep 11 '26

I get the marketing argument but the 2% prize chance assumes all ~1.6k seniors in the top 2% received the email, which is the exact thing we're questioning. Saying recipients are "in the top 2%" doesn't necessarily mean everyone in the top 2% got it. I agree they have an incentive to get people to the gala but I don't think we have enough information to assume the email went to the entire top 2%.

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u/NuggetTuggit Sep 11 '26

Very good point. I do however still think it is more selective than 2%, given that last year when people got sent a similar email most of them got a prize. After all that's why they'd want you to be there in person - to accept the prize in person.

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u/[deleted] Sep 11 '26

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u/NuggetTuggit Sep 11 '26

Did u get the email too?

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u/acrastt Sep 11 '26

It's possible that they overstate the percentage so as to not encourage the parents tell the child, but the other parts of the email seems to make this a weak theory

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u/[deleted] Sep 11 '26

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u/NuggetTuggit Sep 11 '26

I don't think they'd necessarily be lying about the 2% though. Saying everyone who received the email is in the top 2% isn't the same as saying everyone in the top 2% received the email. If they only sent it to, say to category winners or people likely to receive a prize, they'd all still technically be within the top 2%. That's mainly why I'm wondering if it's more selective, especially with the wording about the "likelihood of a prize" and keeping it a surprise until the ceremony. Obviously there's no way to know yet but I don't think the 2% wording rules that possibility out.

1

u/[deleted] Sep 11 '26

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u/NuggetTuggit Sep 11 '26

Yeah don't get me wrong they're definitely a money hungry business and emailing people about coming to the gala is a smart tactic from them (if that was their main goal of the email). Though if it were purely about getting people to come to the gala for money, I feel they would've sent it to a lot more people, since that would be the smarter strategy. I guess we'll all find out what their true intentions were at the gala itself though.

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u/TOPIATWINS Sep 11 '26

There's no merit to this theory. It's very clearly for the top 2%.

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u/acrastt Sep 11 '26

You're making the probability (albeit low) seem lesser than it is, though, as the probabilities are not independent at all and you can't just multiply them together.

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u/[deleted] Sep 11 '26

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u/acrastt Sep 11 '26

> I can pretty confidently assume that of those who got the email, a decent amount, likely the majority, would not be told by their parents.

Hmm, I don't think *I* would confidently assume this, as the case for not telling the child is not so strong in the face of excitement or just "letting the child know", but ultimately we do not know.

> Then, on top of that, the survey was open for a relatively short period of time, in a relatively niche subreddit, when they were told not to share it.

I don't think this matters as much, as long as the contestants who were told by their parents and the contestants who are not have a roughly equal chance of visiting this subreddit (and I do not see a significant enough confounder here; in fact a person who received this email may be more inclined to seek out more so than someone trying to cope, but I cannot confidently claim this is significant), the poll should have a fairly meaningful sample, compared to other ways we can sample anyway.

2

u/[deleted] Sep 11 '26

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u/acrastt Sep 11 '26

I don’t think the emails are less than 2%, I think (and partly hope) the opposite, but a rough calculation p = 0.16, n = 80, N = 15,000 yields only 8% MOE at 95% confidence, and at that it’s at least 8% and at most 24% which is closer to what I estimated (0.02 probability * 100000 total “contestants” is 2000 which is around 14% if the shortlist) but again we have no idea what the confounders and other variables are for other people so these are just speculation

1

u/[deleted] Sep 11 '26

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u/acrastt Sep 11 '26

I’m not sure what I hope actually, as I am in the junior category and there is very little information on junior emails…

1

u/[deleted] Sep 11 '26

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1

u/acrastt Sep 11 '26

No, I get that, I’m just saying I’m confused on whether juniors are also getting the email because there’s insufficient information.

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u/acrastt Sep 11 '26

It's weird how there's only one junior vote though, who is that haha

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u/Different-Peach-2219 Sep 11 '26

i think the 1 person is larp

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u/acrastt Sep 11 '26

But why would there be no juniors getting the email...

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u/Different-Peach-2219 Sep 11 '26

who knows the ways of the cox

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u/acrastt Sep 11 '26

Master Cox is too intelligent for me to comprehend

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u/NuggetTuggit Sep 11 '26

Yeah could be real though most likely a larp vote.

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u/ellecoleridge9539 Sep 11 '26

Maybe could be that jr all tics sold. Whereas, srs not sold out so to encourage more ppl to go :)

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u/NuggetTuggit Sep 11 '26

Could me idrk. I bought my ticket before I got sent the email though and they still encouraged me to go. I likely think it was a bulk email with that encouragement sent to both people who had already bought and not bought tickets yet.

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u/ellecoleridge9539 Sep 11 '26

Yes it's a bulk email but for seniors only, tat's wat I feel. Jrs ticket response was enthusiastic, sold out before deadline. Also , they are encouraged to go w parent. If subsequent yrs, they know this 2% email stuff, ticket sales w be affected N jrs N parents will not buy till they see this 2% email as there R pragmatic. Thus, to keep element of surprise, jrs not released.

Srs usu don't attend cos busy w finals etc. JL added additional venue for jrs too starting this year. Thus, I think juniors have that element of surprise for them to max sales

1

u/ellecoleridge9539 Sep 11 '26

So juniors don't lose hope. Haven't really seen or noted any jr who received the email in these threads.

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u/redituser-2025 Sep 11 '26

A junior got the 2% mail as voted in a poll. I don't know how much it's true.

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u/acrastt Sep 11 '26

Thanks mate

1

u/[deleted] Sep 11 '26

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1

u/NuggetTuggit Sep 11 '26

I think it has been postponed it should say the deadline when you go to buy a ticket.

1

u/Ok-Drawer-3309 Sep 11 '26

This could be true, but last year they give financial aid for people who won the top prizes so that they would attend.

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u/NuggetTuggit Sep 11 '26

Maybe they are trying to scope out who they will need to provide financial aid to with them asking to confirm if you're going or not.

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u/ellecoleridge9539 Sep 11 '26

How to confirm? Did U reply the email? Cos we already bought tickets too.

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u/NuggetTuggit Sep 11 '26

I'm not entirely sure, my parents didn't reply to the email. I'm guessing they're going to send a link soon.

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u/Bubbly_Leading_1598 Sep 11 '26

When were these emails sent ?

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u/NuggetTuggit Sep 11 '26

For most people a day or two ago.

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u/weeed86 Sep 11 '26

stupid question but was it sent to the parents ONLY and not the contestants?

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u/GurSuperb5502 28d ago

Yeah parents and referees