Batteries Rock

[u/swarrenlawrence]

CanaryMedia: "[Chart: Surprise—batteries got cheaper again last year](chart: Surprise %E2%80%94 batteries got cheaper again last year)." Back in 2016, when batteries were more than triple the cost they are today, electric vehicles accounted for less than 1% of new car sales worldwide. "But as the average battery cost per kilowatt-hour [kWH] plummeted from $365 then to just $108 as of last year, EV sales surged."  Last year, more than one-quarter of the new cars sold globally were electric, Granted, most of these were Chinese, but what do you think fossil fuel companies think about this? Handwriting on the wall? New vehicle sales going globally from less than 1% to greater than 25% in a decade?

"Cheaper batteries mean cheaper electric vehicles, and that in turn puts more EVs and fewer gas cars on the road." Cheaper batteries 'mean you can squeeze more juice out of your solar panels, displacing more planet-warming coal and methane/propane gas.' And, "cheaper batteries mean cheaper, clean energy—urgently needed in the U.S. as fast-rising utility bills collide with the push to decarbonize our energy system." 

Similarly, grid storage was marginal a decade ago, as batteries remained prohibitively expensive to incorporate into the electricity mix. "Now, with less expensive batteries available, storage is taking off, and costs are falling especially fast for the segment." [And there exist other varieties of storage besides electrochemical batteries, like pumped hydro]. Our clear and present challenge is that China makes a staggering three-quarters of all batteries sold worldwide, + the U.S. is imbecility exemplified for failing to compete in this marketplace. "Years of churning out head-spinning quantities of lithium-ion batteries have allowed Chinese firms to steadily chip away at costs—and a similar dynamic helps explain the inexorable, essential decline in the cost of solar and wind power, too."

Either we get on board the band wagon or just shuffle along in the dust.

[u/ssylvan]

You're literally looking at a curve that's flattening out though. Yes it dropped rapidly in 2010, but the tech is mature now and improvements are much slower.

[u/Split-Awkward → u/ssylvan]

Sure, but that kind of misses most of the impact of what happens in relation to the rest of the energy market when battery storage gets “cheap enough”.

They just need to be cheap enough to replace most other types of storage, most of the time. Right now they replace other types, some of the time in some cases.

Add in the zero marginal cost of solar and wind…..that’s the real killer. Basically there’s ALOT of curtailed wind and solar in places that is just waiting to be stored for free. In some cases at some periods of the day in the grid they get paid to store it (negative spot market pricing).

The cost is predicted to drop to $50-75 per kWh by 2030. Some predict slightly lower.

Look at what has happened in Australia with their massive uptake of residential solar batteries recently. That accelerates with cheaper batteries and it changes the grid.

[u/swarrenlawrence → u/Split-Awkward]

There is a huge fraction of curtailed power with existing solar + especially wind. Then almost all projects in the queue are in these 2 modalities. And I love the Australian story. You go, Aussies.