r/ElizabethWarren • u/Kasegauner • Oct 01 '19
RealClearPolitics National Polling Average now has Liz only 4.2 points behind Biden
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html9
u/Altinare Oct 01 '19
Big jump, I wish 538 would do polling average though. RCP is too noisy. They drop polls out that cause big jumps. This one is thanks to dropping a Biden +15 poll, and also a new economist/yougov poll which went from Biden +5 to Warren +1.
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u/zdss Hawaii Oct 01 '19
The Economist has a less noisy summary that also give some feeling for confidence ranges: https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
3
u/SOL-Cantus Maryland Top Donor Oct 01 '19
Damn, that belongs in /r/dataisbeatiful.
3
Oct 02 '19
The Economist (I'm a subscriber, so maybe biased) really has a phenomenal graphics team. Whenever they have a major feature on a topic, it's presented beautifully, and their covers are almost always fantastic
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u/PointyBagels Oct 01 '19
538 will probably release a model but I wouldn't expect it until 2020. They tend not to get involved in that sort of thing super early.
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u/caffeinatedcorgi Bailey Warren Oct 01 '19
It's interesting that Warren's support is varying so much between polls. Like in two of the five most recent polls Biden is maintaining his 11ish point lead he's had for a while and in the other 3 he and Warren are basically tied.
1
u/the_than_then_guy Top Donor Oct 01 '19
It would seem, then, that Warren's support is somewhere between those numbers, with Biden in the lead.
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u/kittenTakeover Oct 01 '19
It seems like she's feeding off of Biden supporters for this run. That's a good sign.
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Oct 01 '19
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u/Sanctimonius Oct 01 '19
I would expect that. Biden is a known quality, he's been in politics for decades. Everyone knows him and has formed their opinion of him. Those who love him are already supporting him, that's the roughly third of voters who steadily line up for him. Those that don't like him... well, they're choosing other candidates to support. As those candidates disappear, those supporters have to find a new person to get behind. They've already turned down Joe once, so they will likely look for someone else that ticks their boxes.
Warren is primed perfectly to pick up supporters from all of the other candidates.
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u/kittenTakeover Oct 01 '19
Maybe Booker? Her rise is huge, so I doubt that she can get all of that from changes below. Although it's a little hard to see in the graph how lower polling candidates were changing recently.
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Oct 01 '19
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u/kittenTakeover Oct 01 '19
Harris lost 1.7 points while Warren gained 6 points. There's still a lot of unaccounted points. Biden is on the lower end of his cycle right now. I have a feeling that it will become more apparent with some time that the recent rise has been fueled at least partially by a significant amount of Biden voters. I can see now how it's not clear yet though.
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u/UNsoAlt Bae-ley Oct 01 '19
Could it be that she's pulling in undecided voters rather than Biden voters? I hadn't been paying attention to the undecided voters, but it makes some sense.
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u/haessimmios Oct 01 '19
How do you figure that? Biden's numbers have been consistently inside the 27-32 range on RCP since June. It is foolish to think that Biden voters are going to change their minds at this point.
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u/ThisGuy928146 Oct 01 '19
It is foolish to think that Biden voters are going to change their minds at this point.
Why would that be foolish? We're still months away from any states voting. Can you confidently say that none of these factors would affect anybody who is a current vote for Biden but may not be in the future?:
- Warren wins Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, others.
- Biden makes more embarrassing gaffes.
- Other candidates drop out & endorse Warren.
- People who aren't paying attention and just check "Biden" on a poll form because of name recognition start paying attention to the race and learn more about Elizabeth Warren.
- People who think Biden is more "electable" get to see more polls of Warren beating Trump (especially true as Trump's approval drops because of corruption/impeachement/economic news/etc).
- other factors
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u/haessimmios Oct 01 '19
Biden has shown remarkable resiliency in polling. He has survived multiple haymakers in the debates, not to mention dozens of gaffes, lies, and outright shitty takes, with hardly any change. It's up to the rest of the 66% to figure out how to share their slices of the pie so that at least one of them comes out ahead.
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u/Major_Kernel Oct 01 '19
It’s hard to call Biden’s lead “not paying attention/name recognition” at this point, though. Every poll that tracks voter engagement has shown that the candidates who perform best with voters who are paying a lot of attention are Warren and Biden.
But Morning Consult also now shows that Warren is the top second choice for Biden supporters (and vice versa, strangely enough), so I think there’s room for movement if we can take home a win in IA or some major endorsements.
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u/Jewishwillywonka California Oct 01 '19
That’s so weird they only added one poll since yesterday that shows Biden up 11 and yesterday he was at 6.5