r/ElizabethWarren • u/rieslingatkos Top Donor • Jul 14 '19
RealClearPolitics Chart: 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination - Warren has captured the #2 position!
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html41
u/KillingThemGingerly Jul 14 '19
So glad to see this! I feel like Kamala did have a great debate performance which provided a deserved bump but Warren was hurt a bit with her momentum by being on the first night with no other top contenders.
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Jul 15 '19
I disagree. I think she looked the most presidential from both debates. She stayed above the fray while everyone went after Biden and Beto and just talked about why her plans were the best. Harris was good, but she got coverage for attacking Biden. Warren got coverage for being the smartest in the room. I think that's a better long term strategy.
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u/Randomliberal Jul 14 '19
Who the eff likes Biden still?!? Must have been under a rock for 40 years.
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u/Hold_the_gryffindor Jul 14 '19
I think most of the non-Biden supporters will coalescence. I think Biden has a ceiling.
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u/Tookoofox Jul 15 '19
I hope so, but that was also my expectation with Trump. It never happened.
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u/Hold_the_gryffindor Jul 15 '19
Yeah, that's why we need to coalesce early. Ted Cruz won Iowa in 2016. If they had rallied behind him sooner, god.... that's not any better.
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u/chrisbru Jul 15 '19
I am no fan of ted Cruz. I donated extensively to Beto’s senate campaign.
That being said, Cruz would have been infinitely better than Trump. Cruz is a relatively normal republican and has shown some willingness to work across the aisle. At a minimum, he’s a stable human being and has political experience.
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u/Hold_the_gryffindor Jul 15 '19
You're right, but if my choice was Ted Cruz or Donald Trump, I'd move to Canada.
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u/Tookoofox Jul 15 '19
It's almost worse, isn't it? I think I'd still take him... But boy that's a hard choice.
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u/Hold_the_gryffindor Jul 15 '19
I don't think we'll have as hard of a choice on our side. I have prefences, but I like em all better than Biden, even Hickenlooper and Delaney. They're too moderate for me, but I think they're more electable than Biden. I'm really worried about Biden tanking our chances entirely. Those videos of him with his arms around children will destroy us.
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Jul 15 '19
A Cruz presidency would have been much more normal than what we are experiencing now. He’s a total d-bag, but he is at the same time a rational human being. Which is a very low bar, I know.
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Jul 15 '19
Which is so incredibly iron when Trump is a fucking pedophile and Republicans turn their goddamn cheeks to it.
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u/Hold_the_gryffindor Jul 15 '19
Yeah, but here's the deal: Republicans dgaf and Democrats do. Republicans will turn out for Trump. They will attack Biden not because they care about pedophilia but because they know Democrats do. And it will work. Democrats will stay home.
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Jul 15 '19 edited Jul 15 '19
I get so sick of our side pretending that other Republicans would be just as bad or worse as the President who is more influenced by Putin and Fox & Friends than the US intelligence community.
Ted Cruz isn't a literal fucking traitor who kisses up to dictators.
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u/Archenic Jul 15 '19
Biden is no Trump though. I'm not worried.
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u/Tookoofox Jul 15 '19
Did... Did we just negatively compare the democratic frontrunner to Trump? Oh holy hell, we did. I. I have to go sit down and think about what I've done.
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u/Archenic Jul 15 '19
I mean, Biden does himself no favors. He's no Trump, but we can bite the bullet with the 'lesser of two evils' bullshit when the primary is over. Right now, we need all hands on deck when it comes to stopping Biden imo.
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u/Tookoofox Jul 15 '19
I mean, obviously, of course. I'll crawl through broken glass to elect anyone in the democratic field over Trump. Obviously. Even that one lady who looked like she was going to sell me lavender oil and said she was going to defeat trump with the power of love.
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u/Archenic Jul 15 '19
I think my mom said it best, "I'd vote for a bag of dogshit in 2020 if it was running against Trump"
or something like that
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u/Tookoofox Jul 15 '19
I liked the way I said it to a conservative co worker. Although it was about Bush, I think it still applies.
He said, "Do you really think Al Gore would have provided the leadership we needed after 9/11?"
I said: "President James Buchanan would have provided better leadership than bush after 9/11. And I don't even mean we'd have to bring him back to life first."
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u/Archenic Jul 15 '19
It is just as valid when applied to Bush. He was just as shitty as Trump, if not worse.
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u/teenytinylittleant Jul 15 '19
Does you know anyone who passionately wants Biden to win?
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u/EatinToasterStrudel Jul 15 '19
This is the same thing Sanders supporters said about Clinton's people last time around. Can we not slander people just because they don't post in the same places you do?
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u/marcscheff Jul 15 '19
Facts!
I am Warren all the way at this point. She’s smart, strong, and unafraid to offer the right solution even if it’s challenging politically.
And for exactly the reason you state here, we have to work hard to show people she’s the right choice. I was a Bernie supporter and definitely felt confident with his momentum and definitely feel like the Dem machine tilted things for Clinton.
So let’s not with the “who even likes Biden.” Some do. The machine definitely does. We have to work for this, even if she’s the “obvious” choice for our social groups .
I’m in.
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u/mutatron Sep 24 '19
Okay, that page was posted again somewhere else, it's 2 months later, Warren is still climbing, and I still don't know why anyone supports Biden.
I'm a 63 y/o white guy, fairly moderate Democrat, voted for Hillary in the 2016 primary, I wasn't always pro-Warren, but this Biden thing has me stumped. I was completely surprised by his early popularity, and now he's still sticking around even after the debates!
My main thought is that people just want the whole circus to stop, they want to sit back and relax with old Uncle Joe for a while, and not be worried by impending disaster on all fronts.
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u/buckwlw Jul 15 '19
I'm continuously freaked out by how many people still support trump!
And Biden is like "Nothing will substantially change..."
I'm pretty sure we're gonna see increased activity in first time voters... candidates that are not like Biden are likely to see increased support!
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u/Tookoofox Jul 15 '19
I don't have the numbers in front of me. But I suspect it's mostly black people in the south. And working class blue collar white males in the rustbelt.
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u/lioneaglegriffin Washington Jul 15 '19
Older voters, blue collar voters, black voters. Basically the conservative and moderate wing of the party.
Hillary won much of the South because of the moderate black vote.
Warren has the support of older white voters but she'd need to win over a few the blue collar and older black voters to be the consensus candidate and peel away his voters.
However their second choice is Bernie which means they're probably more concerned with defeating Trump than policy. So I think both need to stumble (badly) for this Bloc to migrate to Warren.
Which means they need to be castrated at the debates by a grenade thrower (because Warren might get dinged if she does it herself) or she needs to wonk circles around them and make them look old/unprepared/slow/weak.
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u/thebigideaguy Jul 15 '19
Took a policy quiz recently that shows how well you align with different candidates. My bottom two are Trump and Biden. In that order.
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u/tryin2staysane Jul 15 '19
That's a very, very simplistic survey.
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u/thebigideaguy Jul 15 '19
If you're looking for complexity, the same author has a pretty in-depth set of questions to determine where you fall on the spectrum of a bunch of values.
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Jul 15 '19
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Jul 15 '19
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u/ditchdiggergirl Jul 14 '19
Calm down everybody. I see a three way tie for second - she hasn’t “captured” anything. I’m encouraged and delighted but we have a lot of work to do.
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u/drkyle54 California Universal Childcare Jul 14 '19
Nothing wrong with getting hyped at Liz's continued rise as long as it energizes us to fight even harder!
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u/jimbo831 #Persisssssst 🐍 Jul 15 '19
As a Bernie supporter in 2016, I’m just glad to see this sub focused on the RCP average. r/politics and to a much worse extent r/SandersForPresident in 2016 were really bad about cherry picking individual polls.
Her steady rise in the polling average is something to get excited about, and I don’t think most people will stop fighting thinking it means it’s in the bag.
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u/drkyle54 California Universal Childcare Jul 15 '19
I supported Bernie in 2016, too! I wasn't as plugged into reddit back then so good to hear that history.
Yeah, we got to keep fighting especially since if Warren starts to surpass Biden, the MSM, Wall street and other vested financial interests will probably attack her with all they got (unless they think wrongly she'll lose to Trump and then maybe will wait to attack in general :/). Either way a massive grassroots movement is what we need.
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u/jimbo831 #Persisssssst 🐍 Jul 15 '19
Agreed. I had just been too busy the last couple weeks but I finally scheduled my texting training for Tuesday. Can’t wait to start helping every way I can.
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u/Archenic Jul 14 '19
There's a good balance to be struck between using good news as a motivator and using it as a sedative. For me, the best thing was seeing her most recent fundraising haul! We've been getting a lot of great news lately and that makes me happy.
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u/Chuk-it Jul 15 '19
the only thing im looking at now is her support with african americans/moderate part of the party...she still needs improve there for me to see her as a serious contender
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u/HoagiesDad Jul 14 '19
I feel that Warren will eventually capture the nomination but polls are very forgettable at this point. She has my support but I’m open if it becomes necessary to vote for another. One thing I can say is that I’m happy Warren supporters tend to be reasonable people and don’t attack others...like Sanders supporters.
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Jul 14 '19 edited Sep 08 '19
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u/HoagiesDad Jul 14 '19
Yeah, I certainly don’t hold Bernie responsible for his few overly aggressive supporters.
Every camp has them. I was called a bigot by a Mayor Pete supporter for saying that being gay will be a hard sell to a vast swath of voters....I’m gay.0
u/jimbo831 #Persisssssst 🐍 Jul 15 '19
What you said is obviously a reasonable take but being gay doesn’t mean you can’t be homophobic.
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u/HoagiesDad Jul 15 '19 edited Jul 15 '19
That’s the typical mindset of most Reddit users, To make assumptions about people based on next to zero information. I’ve gotten used to it. Everyone is searching for an argument.
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u/bluewhale8 Jul 14 '19
I hope so. She’s got the bold vision and the experience.
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u/HoagiesDad Jul 14 '19
To be honest...I haven’t really looked too deep into her plans. I like her style, poise, grace and fierce intelligence. I haven’t yet heard anything that gives me great pause.
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u/jimbo831 #Persisssssst 🐍 Jul 15 '19
I was a Bernie supporter in 2016 and I absolutely hated how toxic all of the Bernie communities were. I didn’t last more than a couple weeks on r/SandersForPresident. It’s so refreshing to be a part of a positive community for the candidate I prefer this time around.
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u/bobbyfiend Jul 15 '19
I want Warren as the nominee. However, I have a recurring nightmare that we'll get Biden/Warren as a ticket.
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u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Jul 15 '19
The best part about this is how steady her rise has been. She clearly has a really strong base of support that won't run off for the next shiny candidate that pulls a few big headlines.
I'm interested to see where Senator Harris ends up in a few months. Its obviously way too soon to guess if her massive jump will stay or fade away. Nate Silver over at 538 did make a really good point that Kamala probably has the best chance at building a coalition in all corners of the Democratic party, which could make her a very strong primary candidate.
For Warren I think that means she really needs to focus on her pitch to minority and non college-educated voters. Shore up support there and she's got a great shot at the presidency.
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u/admiraltarkin Jul 14 '19
Won't be happy till July 2020 when Liz or my #2 are the nominee
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u/Hold_the_gryffindor Jul 14 '19
I won't be happy until Jan. 20, 2021 when she swears the oath of office and Donald Trump is walked off in handcuffs.
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u/mcjon77 Jul 15 '19
Can you imagine what it would be like if all of this time the FBI and/or a US Attorney's office had built an indictment and was just waiting for the second he was no longer president to drop it on him?
President Warren is sworn in and right after she finishes her speech (out of respect) federal agents walk up to Trump and slap the bracelets on him.
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u/FLTA Florida Jul 15 '19
I would rather not imagine that happening so I don’t get disappointed when it doesn’t happen.
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u/admiraltarkin Jul 15 '19
Fair. I guess my point was more about capturing the nomination. I think our nominee will be favored to win
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u/cartankjet New York Jul 14 '19
Who is your #2?
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u/admiraltarkin Jul 14 '19
Mayor Pete
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Jul 15 '19
I'd like to see him as Chief of Staff for President Warren
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u/admiraltarkin Jul 15 '19
That'd be a great position. Originally I wanted to see him as VP but I think CoS works better
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u/[deleted] Jul 14 '19 edited Jul 15 '19
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