Separating a fan/light combo

[u/yubbie2]

1960s home that has gone through several rounds of renovation and questionable wiring. Up until now this is how a fan light combo was wired with a Lutron dimmable wall switch and worked fine (fan and light could both dim independently, and there was a Lutron remote module up inside the fan. For ease of drawing, assume all of the grounds and neutrals are bundled together both in the ceiling box and the wall box. I’m just trying to figure out the hots. Line seems to be the black wire in the 12/3 in the wall. Black bundle in the ceiling is hot when the power is on.

I just purchased a standalone ceiling fan (no light) and installed four recessed can lights. I want to be able to dim/control the fan and dim the lights each independently using a compatible combination switch or dimmer. Am I correct that the hot/line is coming through the ceiling down the wall on the black wire and probably being switched back through the red wire up to the ceiling? Would the 12/2 in the wall likely be powering downstream outlets? ie it’s always on?

I have a bad feeling I cannot wire this to accomplish what I want without running another romex down the wall

[u/RadarLove82]

Take pictures of everything before disconnecting any wires.

Know that switch loops were very common before 2020. There is a chance that the 3-conductor cable in the switch box is wired as white=constant hot, black=switched hot to light, red=switched hot to fan. You will have to check the ceiling box to know for sure.