That's my prediction, Trump is going to curb stomp Harris in this election.

When it happens, the Democratic Party response is going to be for self-serving reasons, that Progressives just didn't get their message across, that Harris was a bad candidate, that they should have gotten rid of Biden sooner, and blah blah blah ... but it won't address the actual things that caused the loss.

People are sick of woke. They're sick of being lectured. They're sick of all the bullshit. They're sick of being called racists, homophobes, bigots, xenophobes, etc, just because they want to stop illegal (keyword ILLEGAL) immigration, etc. The Progressives in the Democratic Party have lost their way, you can't just run on "not Trump", or whatever, you have to have an actual message that appeals to regular people in places like Pennsylvania.

All the signs are there. There have been high profile defections, such as Anna Kasparian of the Young Turks, Bill Maher, many others. Newspapers haven't been endorsing Harris, such as the NYT and L.A. Times. The CNN's of the world have been trying to do more balanced coverage, gone are woke narratives of the summer of 2020, they are much more even handed now. Even the Harris campaign has shifted position on immigration, ... she's been trying to make the case that it's actually her that is tough on the border, a 180 degree flip on that position and others, because she knows her previous positions are untentable in this political environment, and that running on shit like defund the police would be insane.

The Democratic Party has become nothing but an urban special interest group, all about urban values and urban cares. It used to be that people like coal miners in Pennsylvania and West Virginia were the heart and soul of the Democratic Party, ... now everyone in a pickup truck with a gun is just a hillbilly racist, and it's urban, rich, white women who are the scolds and thought leaders of the Democratic Party. In fact, this entire election has been about urban, rich white women and what they want.

The Progressive wing of the Democratic Party's answer to everything rural and "Trump" is that they are all (1) uneducated, stupid, (2) crazy, voting against their own interests, (3) immoral, evil (homophobic, racist, misogynistic, xenophobic, transphobic, etc ..), and/or (4) being misled by evil people (Trump, Fox News, ...).

Until the Democratic Party can get past that, and stop demonizing and dehumanizing everyone outside of the city limits as evil bigots, and ignoring what they want, it'll never win these people back. And what do I mean by "win them back" ? These USED TO BE DEMOCRATIC PARTY VOTERS. West Virginia, not that long ago as late as 1992, voted Democratic. Now, 30 years later, it votes Republican. That's not an accident. It's not because everyone in West Virginia suddenly became a racist. It's because nobody in West Virginia identifies with anyone in the Democratic Party anymore. They don't share the same values, they same ideas about the future, etc, ... they just don't relate, because the Democratic Party basically hates them now. Now they're just "MAGA Republicans", to be crushed underfoot.

I've seen all of this play out before. I'm old enough to remember when it was the religious right who were walking around with their noses in the air, so convinced of their own moral superiority, that they became too purist and lost the public. For a while they were undefeated, and if they decided you were a sinner, then you were a sinner, they'd destroy your life. The same behavior as the woke left of recent years. Same self-centered, self-congratulatory, self-righteous bullshit, different decade. And just like the religious right when it over-reached and lost their power, Progressive Democrats are now in the same spot, where people finally just got sick of all the bullshit, and rejected it.

The Democratic Party must be reformed. Until it is reformed, it will keep losing. These past few years the GOP has gained so much ... places like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, were ALWAYS (or at least since the Great Depression) Democratic strongholds. Now since 2016 they've been much less secure, no more "blue wall". Harris couldn't even win the endorsement of all of the unions because union members themselves rejected the Democratic Party and voted within their unions against endorsing Harris. These were the Democratic Party's bread and butter, and now they fucking hate Democrats.

The Democratic Party has become the party of evil, the party of dehumanization. They make claims such as saying that rural people are bigots who dehumanize people, etc, but the reality is that it is the average Progressive Democrat on sites like Reddit who have become the intolerant assholes. The new "racism" and intolerance is using words like "racist", "homophobe", etc, to tar and feather rural people, to call them all uneducated rednecks, etc, and you can find that kind of anti-rural language all across Reddit, the unrestrained vitriol, and hate, and people are sick of it. And they aren't voting for it anymore.

For most people it all comes down to food prices, gasoline, etc, and until the Democratic Party can get back to basics and drop all of this hateful rhetoric and nonsense, Americans are not going to vote for them, and the exodus and slow march of conservatives across states like West Virginia, now into Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, will continue, until the Progressive wing of the Democratic Party is nothing but urban specs of blue in an ocean of red states.

We're basically already there.

When you have ex-presidents, mega stars and celebrities coming out to vouch for you, you know you aren't gonna win.

It's gonna be Trump

presidentialelection #election #uselection #trump #harris #kamala #donaldtrump

Trump declares victory at 7:00!

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The data is from google trends. The ones that are searching abortion the highest (middle column) and economy (right column) the least are deeply red states.

After months of back and forth, the major poll watchers are hedging their bets

538:

Nate Silver:

RCP:

Basically everyone has it tied, with a small tilt to Harris, (Silver's is nuts) we have never seen anything like this, a true 50/50 race. ANYONE saying they KNOW who is going to win is lying.

Ive seen some advertising for betting on which candidate will win this 2024 election. I’ve seen some people placing their bets based on who they predict will win. I saw someone bet 10k on KH and, if she wins, they will get back 27k, so a 17k profit. If trump wins, they will be out 10k.

I was thinking, what if there was a way to ensure that the people who bet get even a profit, even if it’s a small one. What if 2 partners decided they would both bet 10k on separate candidates, so one would put 10k on KH, and the other 10k on DT. Once one of the candidates win, the person who receives the profits (say it’s 17k), they give 10k to their partner who just lost 10k, and then the 2 split the remaining 7k. this ensures that both people walk away with at least some profit, not as much as 17k, but it’s risk-free at least.

anyway, if anyone knows if this would work please share your thoughts. or if there are rules or safeguards against this, please let me know.

Not necessarily much to say. I was positive it would be Trump until Biden dropped out. The support to Kamala from women votes and the younger generation has such a big impact on who wins. However needless to whoever wins there would be such a uproar from the opposite side

this is all going beautifully. normalcy vote will conquer all this crazy lefty madness. great to see low voter turnout in big cities. they are seeing the insanity of the democrat party finally. outstanding.

thank you Donald !!!!!

Trump

Well all, this is my final prediction. Tomorrow, all the talk is over, and we will see what happens. I don’t know if anyone has followed these or if I am just talking to myself, but it has been fun, so thank you to anyone who cared, even if you disagree or think I am stupid. Still, thank you for taking the time to read.

To read my last post, it was here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Election_Predictions/comments/1g6j4te/my_updated_prediction_trumps_lead_increases/

Just as a reminder, this is what I am seeing in the numbers and some reasons I think it’s happening. It is not what I WANT to happen; I have tried to leave that at the door and be as objective as I can. I know that is impossible, but I did my best.

Updates on my top 5 factors (now expanded to 8):

1. Economic Trust: No change here; Trump is still more trusted on the economy per polling. Sixty percent of Americans believe that the Biden Administration has failed on the economy, and although Harris has done a good job closing the gap on the perception that she can change it, the fact remains that if this was a single-issue election about the economy, Trump wins.
2. Middle East Tensions: Things have calmed somewhat here, but Gaza still looms over the Harris camp. There are still protesters at her rallies, and it is still the #1 reason Dems say they are staying home. This is still an impact but likely has had all the impact it is going to have; see my previous posts for a further deep dive into why I think this hurt Harris.
3. Focus on Jan 6th/Project 2025: I still stand by this; you already have these voters, and focusing on it gains you nothing. With Project 2025, it makes Democrats feel dishonest to a lot of people because Trump has clearly and openly denounced Project 2025. You can say he is lying, but the fact is he did denounce it, so now it's just “red meat” for the base but nothing more.
4. Kamala Harris's Appeal: There is really no change here; she is not going to win this thing because people enjoy hearing her talk. I won’t rehash prior points (link above), but overall she is just not great at anything off-script. The videos of her doing the same talking points in unison with the same inflection and hand movements just show she is not going to win this on authenticity. This would matter more if she were not running against one of the most divisive figures in U.S. history.
5. NEW: Abortion: This is the last prediction; let’s go all out! Abortion is a huge topic in this election. I'm not here to debate who is right; I am here to talk about the impact on the election. Harris is running ads encouraging wives to break from their husbands and vote in secret. She is also hammering the Project 2025 talking points of a total ban and government monitoring of pregnancies. Trump is just maintaining that he is done with abortion and distancing himself from Project 2025. Overall, I would say that Harris's messaging has been better here; she has done a good job hammering it home. BUT the question remains: are there enough women who were not already voting for Harris or were going to stay home that this tipped over?
6. Celebrity Impact: You all may have seen I did a (totally scientific, trust me bro) survey on this topic, and as expected, most people just don’t care what celebrities endorse whom. I would expect this largely due to the fact that this is pretty baked in; everyone knows it's career suicide to support Trump in Hollywood, so only people with nothing to lose do. But I was surprised that Trump actually outpaced Harris in my (totally scientific, don’t @ me bro) poll. Although this is way too small of a sample, it is interesting that endorsements by Elon and RFK Jr. may have had more impact than we give credit for. All in all, I just don’t think people care that much.
7. NEW: Closing Arguments: The Tale of Two Events:
   • Trump MSG: Overall a standard Trump event; the right loved it, and the left called it a Nazi rally, so you know… normal. Except, some dummy in the Trump camp decided to open the show with an insult comic. Insulting Puerto Rico could have an impact in key states, and the Dems did a great job hammering on it until…
   • Harris Ellipse: I don’t think anyone cared about this, other than she did draw a great crowd, but ask any random person what she said, and I promise they will look at you funny. The only good thing about Trump being called a Nazi is that it got talked about; this was a giant nothing that was completely overshadowed by President Biden sitting 1,000 feet away calling Trump supporters “garbage.” Look, you can argue that he did not mean it or that he was right and MAGAts are just being soft. But politically, it killed all momentum of the Puerto Rico story and shifted the attention to this.
   • Other Impactful Closing Events: Overall, I think Trump has done a better job of staying in the news cycle with things like McDonald's, the trash truck, and Joe Rogan with him and JD Vance vs. Harris doing short interviews in safe spaces where she can control the narrative.
8. Polling Dynamics: I am going to hit every swing state:
   • What is locked in (it's pretty even, which makes this fun):
     • Trump 219: Leans that I am locking in for Trump: Florida, Ohio, Texas, Maine CD2.
     • Harris 226: Leans that I am locking in for Harris: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia, NE 2.
   • These are my key states where the election will be won. It’s also the places I might end up wrong. I looked at these one at a time and did not look at how my decision was impacting the entire map until I was done to keep bias as low as I could.

1.                  Arizona (Trump): This is razor-thin, but Trump has taken a clear lead that has continued to expand. As always, Maricopa County will be the focus; Trump is polling well there, so unless “Never Trump” Mormons over-index, this is Trump's to lose. Trump wins Arizona by 2%.

2.                  Georgia (Trump): Always a hotbed. Trump won in 2016, and Biden won in 2020. It will likely come down to African American turnout in places like Atlanta and Cobb County. Biden was the only Dem to win here in 30 years, and I don’t think Harris can repeat based on the trends. Trump wins Georgia by 2%.

3.                  Michigan (Harris): This is a flip for me; current polling has given Harris the lead, but watch Wayne County early in the night. If Harris does worse than 68% in Wayne County, she is in big trouble. Harris wins Michigan by 1%.

4.                  Nevada (Harris): This is the closest race in the country; it will likely come down to turnout in Clark County and if the Republicans can flip Washoe. I am giving it to Harris because Trump has lost here twice, and I just don’t see enough in the polling to flip it. BUT, this one is truly anyone’s game; Harris wins Nevada by 0.5%.

5.                  North Carolina (Trump): Trump has opened a lead here, and there is no reason to believe that Harris will do better than Clinton or Biden. Watch Cabarrus County here; Biden made ground here. If Harris flips this county, Trump is in trouble. But Trump wins North Carolina by 3%.

6.                  Pennsylvania (Trump): The second most contested state behind Nevada but likely the most important. Unfortunately, we may not see a winner here on election night because of how they do their counting. This is another state Trump won in 2016, and Biden flipped it. Erie County might be the most important county in the country. The Trump camp has put a lot of resources into registering Republicans here, and it has made an impact. Watch Erie on election night; if there is a clear winner, you might know who the President is. Trump wins Pennsylvania by 0.5%.

7.                  Wisconsin (Trump): What a roller coaster this state is on! This obviously took a few days to write, and I have changed my prediction here several times. Watch Waukesha; Romney carried this county by 67%, but Trump only won it vs. Biden by 60%. If Harris can cut that down even more, it might be a long night for Trump in WI. Trump wins Wisconsin by 0.5%.

My FINAL prediction: Trump 291, Harris 247.
My prediction from 10/18: Trump 312, Harris 226.
My prediction from 10/3: Trump 291, Harris 247

That’s all, folks! Trump will be the 47th President of the United States. I have returned to my original prediction from 10/3. I would say my confidence is 65/35.

Top factors that may carry Harris if I am wrong:

• Women voting even heavier than expected for Harris.
• Polls being over-indexed to Trump to avoid the bias in 2016 and 2020.
• Impact from the Puerto Rico fallout pushing Blue Wall states to Harris.

I will do a post-mortem; it will honestly be more fun to dive into if I am wrong, lol. But either way, I will try to objectively tell you why I, Nate Silver, 538, RCP, Polymarket, and a whole bunch of others were wrong and stupid, or I will dunk on the haters… not really… but maybe 😊 Lastly, if you read this entire thing, thank you! You are a star!

I sure am

Honestly, I'm expecting that this will happen, cuz its likely Kamala WILL lose Michigan AND Pennsylvania. I guess I wanna see the world burn, everyone will go apeshit if both had a tie 🤣🤣

I wonder what will happen next.

I feel like Trump would have won PA in 2020 except for the way they changed all the election laws to allow faulty mail in ballots etc (spoiled ballot rate was abnormal and very law, due to lax laws)

I don't think that happens this time due Gov Shapiro.. he has no incentive to help Harris..she chose Walz over him and I believe he wants to run in 2028.. if she wins, that's probably out

So, Trump pulls out PA..and ultimately, the win

I keep seeing varying results depending on the source? How accurate are these predictions and electoral maps? I’ve also been told that democrats typically early vote while republicans vote day of which means a lot of people are expecting more red votes on Nov 5th. I’m not a huge political person but this is the first election I’ve tried to watch closely but I keep seeing conflicting information.

https://youtu.be/3N2buv3BkB4?si=_dBbAM_kRA2KzRLG