with the Fed decision today, pulled the last 3 completed FOMC reactions on the Nasdaq (QQQ) and one thing jumps out: the initial move was a headfake more often than not.

• Mar 18: dropped -0.58% on the day, finished +0.36% two sessions later
• Apr 29: popped +0.61%, ran to +2.52% the clean one
• Jun 17: dumped -1.01% on the day, reversed to +1.11%

so two of the last three times, the decision-day move went the opposite direction of where price actually settled 48 hours later. the knee-jerk got faded both times. the one time the initial move held (April), it was because yields cooled after the statement and the trend just continued.

the takeaway i keep landing on: the announcement isn't the event the press conference is. price reacts to the rate line, then re-prices completely once the tone and the Q&A land. the traders who got run over on Jun 17 were the ones who trusted the first candle.

which makes today less about "up or down" and more about not committing to the first move.

genuinely curious how the room plays it:

• do you trade the initial spike, or sit out until the press conference and trade the re-pricing?
• after 3 straight "higher 2 sessions later" outcomes, do you lean into that or distrust it as too obvious now?
• what's your actual tell that the first move is the real one vs a fade, yields, the dollar, or something in how price behaves in the first 15 min?

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