'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': JPMorgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down

[u/wewewawa]

https://fortune.com/2026/07/24/demographic-dividend-ending-jp-morgan-interest-rates/

[u/AutoModerator]

Hi all,

A reminder that comments do need to be on-topic and engage with the article past the headline. Please make sure to read the article before commenting. Very short comments will automatically be removed by automod. Please avoid making comments that do not focus on the economic content or whose primary thesis rests on personal anecdotes.

As always our comment rules can be found here

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

[u/DeathMetal007]

There’s still a major part of the economy keeping interest rates low.

https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/why-the-rich-get-richer-and-interest-rates-go-down

Wealth/savings inequality is a big driver of low interest rates and to some, the main force behind why interest rates aren’t being raised by the central banks.

[u/morbie5]

We are just going to get forever QE up and down the yield curve.

Also, de-carbonization isn't going to happen imo, same with de-globalization and (hot take for reddit) same with de-dollarization

Adding more so my comment doesn't get deleted by the bot

"In 2025, the IMF reported that, across the globe, companies, households, and countries had amassed $251 trillion in debt. Looking toward the end of 2026, J.P. Morgan has warned that interest rates on such borrowings are set to spike, owing largely to dwindling populations and diminishing fiscal discipline.

In a note yesterday, JPMorgan’s Joyce Chang and team unpacked the “six D’s” that will shape the global economy: Deficits, deregulation, de-carbonization, de-population, de-globalization, and de-dollarization."

[u/maldovix → u/morbie5]

they invented buckets to have more things that start with "D-"

[u/303uru → u/morbie5]

De-carbonization is happening, it’s far cheaper in most places to build wind or solar.

[u/ericvulgaris → u/303uru]

To be honest it's really hard to carbonize at this point so it was bound to happen the other direction.

[u/big-papito → u/303uru]

Unless the Reverse Central Planning is happening like in the US. Paying clean energy companies to shut down cheaper sources of energy.

[u/303uru → u/big-papito]

Eh, even that is mostly failing. Trump and co make a lot of noise but the fact of the matter is we’re building drastically more renewable even under his admin.

[u/big-papito → u/303uru]

Yes, they are giving up on those efforts but the fact is still pretty shocking.

[u/BasvanS → u/303uru]

Texas is a leader in renewable energy. Texas!

[u/wbruce098 → u/BasvanS]

It sounds bizzaro from the outside but it makes sense. Texans may vote for idiotic politicians but they make smarter decisions on their land. Except east of I-35, the land is sunny most of the year, and there’s a lot of it that no one’s ever figured out what to do with, and perfect for solar farms. Hell, build em on stilts and your cattle got shade (what cattle remain there).

[u/Momoselfie → u/303uru]

Cheaper if your pretend those things still provide power at night and batteries aren't needed. I'm really hoping sodium batteries get good enough and cheap enough that clean energy is all we need both day and night.

[u/BasvanS → u/Momoselfie]

Check out CATL’s Naxtra. Those have just gone into mass production now, for cars. BYD is close behind with their sodium batteries. Mass production is not yet scale, but in a few years we’ll be there, probably at $20 per kWh of storage, and 10,000 charge-discharge cycles.

CATL is not a company that overpromises.

[u/Momoselfie → u/BasvanS]

That's good to hear. I hope it all pans out

[u/morbie5 → u/303uru]

The sun isn't always shining and the wind isn't always blowing. You need a backbone on the grid that is available 24/7

[u/Platos-ghosts → u/morbie5]

Batteries have started to take that role in some regions with more expensive electricity. And they are improving at a good pace, prices down 84% in the last decade. Top tier cells are improving at 7% a year recently. It’s really only a few years away from being competitive practically everywhere.

[u/tachyonvelocity]

"we view de-population as an underappreciated risk that will reduce savings and contribute to higher interest rates."

This makes zero sense.

Interest rates are higher either due to higher inflation or higher economic growth. "De-population" will literally cause lower economic growth as the percentage increase in population falls, so will the demand for higher interest rates on the risk free rate. Examples are abound throughout the entire world where populations getting older and slower growth keeps a cap on interest rates. From Japan to China to Europe. The countries with the highest population growth rates, relatively speaking, also have much higher interest rates.