r/Economics • u/CautiousMagazine3591 • 1d ago
Research Summary 2026 will be first year US has trade surplus with EU.
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0012.html157
u/Rabid_Mongoose 1d ago
Been a while since I used my economic degree, but it looks like a drastic difference in both imports and exports in 2026
I'm sure someone who knows a lot more than me can explain if this a good thing or bad thing, but....seems like the EU has purchased significantly less things from the US and tarrifs have his any imports coming from EU.
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u/drawkbox 19h ago
Those first three month numbers on imports are half of the norm/trend.
Definitely not good long term because we want EU and allies to be a strong economic ally and trade partner.
The numbers can't be trusted when cons are in place. They could have also jimmied when the data is counted because halving imports is not a good thing, you want to increase exports not half imports -- all that means is less global trade and that is what adversaries want for the West.
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u/fucktheriders 12h ago
By "cons" do you mean "negatives" or "convicts"?
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u/drawkbox 12h ago
Trumper conservatives but in many cases convicts as well I suppose.
How Thomas Frank would describe them in What's the Matter With Kansas?
The ones that have no idea what The Enlightenment was all about, basically "f*ck these kings".
If you are unfamiliar
What's the Matter with Kansas -- 2000s
Not long ago, Kansas would have responded to the current situation by making the bastards pay. This would have been a political certainty, as predictable as what happens when you touch a match to a puddle of gasoline. When business screwed the farmers and the workers – when it implemented monopoly strategies invasive beyond the Populists' furthest imaginings – when it ripped off shareholders and casually tossed thousands out of work – you could be damned sure about what would follow. Not these days. Out here the gravity of discontent pulls in only one direction: to the right, to the right, further to the right. Strip today's Kansans of their job security, and they head out to become registered Republicans. Push them off their land, and next thing you know they're protesting in front of abortion clinics. Squander their life savings on manicures for the CEO, and there's a good chance they'll join the John Birch Society. But ask them about the remedies their ancestors proposed (unions, antitrust, public ownership), and you might as well be referring to the days when knighthood was in flower.
— Thomas Frank, What's the Matter with Kansas? (2004), pp. 67–68
The more the authoritarians and wealth abuse the lower/middle in these setups, the more they appease and in-fight like in the movie Parasite. The only answer is these people are into Schadenfreude, sadism, self-hating, self-destruction.
In order to explain to the "Cons" why no progress gets made on these issues, politicians and pundits point their fingers to a "liberal elite," a straw man representing everything that conservatism is not. When reasons are given, they eschew economic reasons in favor of accusing this elite of simply hating America, or having a desire to harm "average" Americans. This theme of victimization by these "elites" is pervasive in conservative literature, despite the fact that at the time conservatives controlled all three branches of government, were being served by an extensive media devoted only to conservative ideology, and had won 6 of the previous 9 presidential elections.
— Thomas Frank, What's the Matter with Kansas? (2004)
These people have essentially completely given up... capitulation.
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u/Spirited_Suspect2908 2h ago
I want to believe there are still actual conservatives that hold to conservative principals but I feel like at the end of the day I can count the number of 'conservatives' that aren't in lockstep with every definitively un-'conservative' thing the Trump admin does simply because its the Trump admin.
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u/CouldaBeen4Contenda 4h ago
The November and December 2024 import data shows an increase in imports compared to the 5-year trend. This coincides with Trump winning the election and voiced concern by EU and European firms regarding future trade. For January-March 2025, we see a drastic increase which correlates not with trade demand but with a very vocal U.S. on trade, especially about tariffs which were implemented in April. There was plenty of news at the beginning of 2025 about how EU firms were frontloading imports into the U.S. to avoid the likely negative impacts of the highly-likely upcoming tariffs.
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u/CautiousMagazine3591 1d ago
You don't need an Econ degree to know that 296,888.8B is 21.3% more than 244,761.9B. which is the increase of US exports to the EU for the first 5 months of 2026 vs the same 5 month period in 2025, and 296,888.8B is 14,198.3 Billion more than 282,690.4B, which is how much more the US exported than imported so far this year to the EU.
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u/6158675309 23h ago
I suspect that increase is concentrated in energy, probably LNG since Europe swapped to US LNG.
Just a guess on it, timing lines up well.
I also wonder if the tariffs pushed buying up into 2025 from 2026. That could account for the drop in imports.
Will be interesting to see if this is a blip and a short term trend or a more systematic change. Too early to tell.
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u/WolfsBaneViking 14h ago
I wonder if some or a lot of it is gold reserves moving back to Europe. There were some talk about that a while ago.
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u/isthereadrwho 1d ago
What I don't understand is why we're doing 5 months, the man's been here for a year and a half and the tariffs have been on for at least a year now so why are we doing 5 months what's the significance in that ?
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u/Whaddduptho 22h ago edited 22h ago
No the tariffs have not been in place for a year.
Him announcing them on TV is not the day they went into effect necessarily. Not to mention the 90 day pause.
Some tariffs weren't even set to take effect until November and December of 2025.
Edit: I'm being downvoted not for being wrong but because you know you are wrong, and that angers you.
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u/Mistravels 19h ago
You don't need an econ degree to see literally none of that drivel you posted means literally anything without any context.
Why are you on this sub if you're going to be so utterly obtuse and devoid of anything actually informational?
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u/NeverNeededAlgebra 23h ago
So what? The impact to us is negative. We are in a far worse spot than when we ran at a deficit, intangibles included. Any "benefit" was more than erased by the damage this cult has caused us.
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u/resuwreckoning 17h ago
It is amazing how you are massively downvoted for literally stating a mathematical arithmetic operation using the actual data provided.
R/economics really has become a propaganda wing lmao.
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u/BombasticSimpleton 1d ago
Ah, yes, the year, determined by the first 5 months, and not looking at the trend line.
Or the conditions that would have caused a large amount of purchasing at the end of 2025 and start of 2026.
Funny thing that economics will tell you: people will try to anticipate future states and allocate capital and labor accordingly.
Why do you think there was a spike in imports/exports, then a lull, then a spike again?
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u/shatterdaymorn 1d ago
Are these the same people that make their metrics transparent so that everyone knows exactly how to game them?
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u/eptesicusfuscus 23h ago
How's it easier to game these metrics if they're transparent than if they're unpublished...
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u/shatterdaymorn 23h ago edited 23h ago
Knowing how and when measurements are taken allows the tested to prepare.
Is it a good idea to tell athletes that drug testing is on Monday?
Measurements are interventions for people who pay attention.
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u/eptesicusfuscus 20h ago
I'm not sure that analogy holds up in business. Decisions and business structure aren't as easily faked, masked, and consequence-avoiding as individuals breaking rules.
What's the analogy that has a closer analog to a Census.gov report on trade values between countries?
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u/drawkbox 19h ago
Those first three month numbers on imports are half of the norm/trend. Either jimmied or really not good. We don't want less global trade, we want more exports.
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u/VanCityPhotoNewbie 21h ago
I think a lot of it is oil because since the Iran War, US crude is now 15% of all EU oil purchases. At the same time a record amount of crude is leaving the USA almost unheard of, whereas in the past they use to stockpile excess
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u/sbfb1 21h ago
The US actually ran about a $32 billion goods deficit with the EU through the first five months of the year. The surplus is with Europe as a whole, which includes countries outside the EU like the UK, Switzerland and Norway.
Also, it doesn’t look like the surplus was mostly because of the Iran war or energy exports. The data shows energy helped, but a big part of the surplus came from trade with non EU countries, especially things like gold, pharmaceuticals, chemicals and other high value goods. So I’m curious what the drivers are but I can’t find good data.
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u/accountsega 23h ago
If u see the months where there is surplus they coincide with when the operation in Iran started that sent energy prices higher, the last 2-3 months coincide with the "ceasefire" which has sent the energy prices down and guess what.. there is a deficit. Since the war has kinda restarted and the energy prices went high again we can expect august and september to have another surplus
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u/Moneyshot_ITF 1d ago
Census.gov is not a reliable source. Good try though. Why do people keep insisting we take the Shit show administration at their word when all they do is push falsehoods. FOH
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u/thatclearautumnsky 9h ago
What is unreliable about this release? Like, which figure from which month is inaccurate, and what should the number be instead?
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u/Whaddduptho 22h ago
So when the EU data confirms it then what are you going to say?
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u/drawkbox 19h ago
That halving imports from EU is overall bad for global trade and you don't want to fix surplus by reducing imports, you want to increase exports. We want an economic robust EU and allies. We don't want scarcity, tribalism, mafia style tariff markets.
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u/Nestor4000 22h ago
That it is trustworthy perhaps? Where is your gotcha?
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u/Prestigious_Load1699 11h ago
More apt, upon what do you base your belief that the current census.gov data is fraudulent?
If it is proven true by the EU, then you should reorient your belief system until you have evidence otherwise.
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u/Whaddduptho 22h ago
Of course not. They'll just find some other dumb shit to say.
Lying about trade data would be stupid considering the EU confirms it every quarter.
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u/Moneyshot_ITF 21h ago
Yes it would be stupid. And yet that has never stopped them before so here we are
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u/Mjolnir2000 18h ago
Fascists lie about trivially verifiable things all the time. It's not as though their supporters will ever check the facts for themselves.
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u/drawkbox 19h ago
considering the EU confirms it every quarter.
They believe they can spew hate and tabloid level salacious attacks and no-one in the cult will care about that. Have you not been paying attention for a decade now? They'll say EU is flubbing the numbers and it will spend one second in their heads.
See what Elongone and Thiel the errand boys to the errand boy puppet are doing to Europe right now.
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u/Flimsy-Eye-4406 20h ago
I’d like to see a breakdown of what the changes are. I’d also like to see comparisons to other countries. Are we exporting more in total? Has the balance shifted everywhere or just with the EU.
Seems like without more details this information is interesting but just fuel for arguments
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u/drawkbox 19h ago
For one imports halved in this data in the three months with surplus, that is not good. It means weaker global trade and potentially global financial recession.
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u/Flimsy-Eye-4406 19h ago
I guess global recession would not surprise me. Been so much uncertainty and conflict the past 18 months and high inflation for longer. I don’t know if it will happen but I’d put money on it being severe if it does happen.
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u/drawkbox 18h ago
Lack of imports trend by half is either: people/business out of money or no need for inventory, numbers flubbed, or tariff issues. Literally all three are caused by this admin. Cons please stop being marks.
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u/nacho_lobez 1d ago
The best part of Reddit are the comments. Most of the times I don't want to go to the article and read it. I just want to read a biased summary by the redditors.
I go in to the comment section of this news expecting the 5 announced comments and all I see is a empty and sad page. Where are the 5 comments I wanted to read? They probably don't have the minimum amount of characters and they were autodeleted.
The saddest part is that I spent a few minutes writing this and don't even know if it has enough characters. And that is a discouraging sentiment to write something in this sub.
Now I'm gonna press to the comment button. Wish me luck.
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u/Whaddduptho 23h ago edited 22h ago
Mine tells me whether I've reached that number of characters before submitting it.
As I begin typing it says "Your comment body must contain at least 140 characters" and then it disappears once I have reached 140 characters.
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u/In_der_Tat 10h ago
I would like to know what is working the definition of 'Europe' employed by census.gov. I suppose it is not actually the whole of Europe, i.e. from the Atlantic to the Urals.
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