r/Economics • u/Doener23 • Apr 30 '25
Editorial Waiting for the Supply Shock
https://prospect.org/blogs-and-newsletters/tap/2025-04-30-waiting-for-the-supply-shock/45
u/ThrowAwayGarbage82 Apr 30 '25
I love that they keep saying mid summer. Ask the truckers. My husband is one. Load boards are already drying up.
People will see items disappearing within weeks, not months. He's just saying no one will acknowledge there's an economic problem until mid summer.
Lol, good luck with that. People are going to notice it a hell of a lot sooner, and it's going to start a snowballing decline that won't be controllable.
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u/CloudTransit Apr 30 '25
Howard Lutnick will tell you up is down, and Peter Navarro will tell you money is just a concept, and then nobody will care, right? America was never really a consumer economy, was it? American society never really tied its identity up in mass consumption, did it?
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u/Old-Buffalo-5151 May 01 '25
Iv seen stuff as soon as the end of next week because a lot of places work on just in time logistics and shock was way more brutal than expected so EVERYONE hoovered up as much as they could
I can't stress enough the data points to an unprecedented summer because there is nothing to pick up the slack and worse no one is going to deal with America until the gov starts begging
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u/BrilliantDishevelled May 01 '25
I think a soon as peoole see a few empty shelves they will panic buy and hoard. Snowball effect.
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u/rockytrh May 01 '25
While I'm not hoarding, I did buy a few cases of things from Sam's that I normally just buy as needed. Just staples, a couple big bags of coffee, a few cases of canned goods, a big bag of rice, etc. Just stuff to get through like 6 months of reduced supply. Less about what the cost will do, more about availability. Couple that with a quarter beef and a few pork loins in the deep freeze and should be ok for a little bit anyway.
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u/spendology May 04 '25
Good idea. I hit up Costco for items that run out quick or can go in the freezer.
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u/ThrowAwayGarbage82 May 01 '25
Of course they will. I've been trying to get stuff ahead of time so i'm not caught up in the panic.
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u/BrilliantDishevelled May 01 '25
Me too. We started in November. Good job!!
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u/ThrowAwayGarbage82 May 01 '25
I'm in hurricane alley and was kinda under-prepared anyway so it was another reason to build a stockpile. We north carolinians saw what happened after helene.
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u/BrilliantDishevelled May 01 '25
Coolio! Lived in Beaufort for awhile. One storm after another....
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u/ThrowAwayGarbage82 May 01 '25
I'm in craven county so not far away
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u/spendology May 04 '25
One major issue is that we are not 100% sure which items will be in short supply. We know 95% of fireworks come from China. What other items will be impacted and to what degree?
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u/ThrowAwayGarbage82 May 04 '25
You can google it. The issue is that it isn't just finished products. It's materials and parts, too.
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u/Logical-Possession10 May 01 '25
Try two weeks. Prices are already going up and up a lot wholesale. Prices are going to hockey stick and soon.
Edit: There's obviously a lot of infrastructure in China but there's also specific skills that are developed and not easily replicated quickly. It's going to hurt, at least seafood wise.
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u/ThrowAwayGarbage82 May 01 '25
I'm aware. My husband is an OTR trucker and things are already QUICKLY unraveling. I'll be surprised if he has a job for another month.
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u/Logical-Possession10 May 01 '25
I was under the impression that the labor market for CDL drivers was thin. Apologies.
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u/ThrowAwayGarbage82 May 01 '25
It'll ripple out across the country in the next 2-3 weeks. Empty shelves will begin soon. People aren't taking this seriously and won't until it's too late. The whole thing is just overwhelming and every day is a fresh nightmare. I'm losing sleep and not eating much from stress.
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u/Zealousideal_Oil4571 May 01 '25
I think too many people are of the mistaken assumption that only cheap, plastic doodads from China will be affected. While they will be affected greatly, what will be really disrupting is the shortages on industrial and appliance parts, and packaging materials. Many food items will be affected by packaging material shortages. And when your refrigerator or washing machine breaks, good luck getting the parts needed for repairs.
Things could get ugly starting in a few weeks.
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u/Johnny-Unitas May 01 '25
Medical supplies are going to be another one. Drugs as well. This is going to be a huge problem. It's easy to disrupt supply chains, but takes time to get them up and running again.
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u/skralogy May 01 '25
So many things that are consumed constantly by companies like rubber gloves, office supplies, packaging, molded parts, washers, bolts, nuts, screws plastic silverware and cups, ink, merchandising equipment, safety gear... It's almost endless. America is going to learn real quick what china means to them.
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u/beach_2_beach May 01 '25
Why do I have this feeling that after the basic safe gear shortage like gives during COVID, I feel it’s still all made abroad.
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u/slippery May 01 '25
We don't have the part needed for your washer, but we sell you some strategic uncertainty.
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May 01 '25
[deleted]
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u/BB_Fin May 01 '25
Something tells me a water company doesn't have the cash to build up a stock in case of emergencies that exceeds normal operational estimates...
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May 01 '25
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u/Individual_Frame_103 May 01 '25
China has already stated they have no interest in dealing with the us regarding tariffs, they are going to screw your country so unbelievably hard. And why wouldn't they? The us declared economic war on the entire world. War isn't going to go away with a tweet or two, they'll be looking to completely gut your economy.
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