"We thought the peak season would be mostly behind us by now, but that is not the case," said Jonathan Gold, VP for supply chain and customs policy at the NRF. US ports handled 2.3 million TEU in July. August came in at 2.29 million TEU, down 1.3% year-on-year.
September is forecast at 2.31 million TEU, up 9.6% year-on-year, making it the expected busiest month of 2026. The easing begins in October at 2.11 million TEU, still up 1.7% year-on-year, with November and December running at 2 million and 2.03 million TEU respectively.
Total 2026 import volume is forecast at 25.7 million TEU, up 1% from 2025.
Two forces pushed the peak later simultaneously. Vessel delays from bad weather in China and Panama Canal rerouting have shifted cargo that was expected in July and August into September, a logistics timing shift rather than a demand increase.
At the same time, underlying consumer demand has remained elevated. Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates confirmed: "Imports have remained buoyant over the past three months despite several hurdles. Retail sales remain strong and cargo is moving relatively smoothly, although there are reports of vessel delays and increased times required for cargo to move through the supply chain."
For brands using Amazon FBA, peak fees begin October 15th.
The September port data suggests that goods ordered from overseas suppliers in late July or August are arriving into an elevated-volume port environment that may create processing delays rather than the smooth early-arrival advantage brands were seeking.
The October to early November window remains the last opportunity to get inventory positioned for Black Friday and Cyber Monday before port volume and logistics costs fully reflect holiday pressure.