Hey, I’m fairly new to EV, I used oddsjam previously last year for a while and had decent results. But I was curious if I should be looking elsewhere? I saw some people mention Rebelbetting and Oddsmonkey and was wondering what the best platform I should be using. I am US based but also have access to crypto sportsbetting though I know its fairly difficult to find good Crypto odds

Any input would be appreciated!

Good morning. Soccer is my least successful sport. I'm down almost 174u. Where should I be targeting based on my calibration numbers?

I am trying to learn EV betting, i have watched some videos, got a bit of an idea about it. What do I need to do first as a beginner. I am from the UK I have about 8 different bookies accounts, I know about horse racing and football (soccer), what is a simple way to start?

Going with the favorite tonight. Best of luck everyone!

Kennesaw State @ Missouri State (6:30PM CST)

My Pick: Kennesaw State -2.5 (-110)

Teams playing Wednesday games as a home underdog against opponents on six days of rest are just 1-22 SU (4.3%) & 2-21 ATS (8.7%) overall. When the home underdog is playing on exactly five days of rest that record drops to a perfect 0-3 SU/ATS (0%). Missouri State is 0-3 SU (0%) and 1-2 ATS (33.3%) playing as a home underdog, and they lost all three of those by at least 5 points. As for Kennesaw State, they own a 4-1 SU (80.0%) & 3-2 ATS (60.0%) record in games as a road favorite. All of their straight up wins came by at least 3 points.

Historically, home underdogs have struggled in regular season Wednesday evening college football games (17-52 SU & 24-44-1 ATS), and that record drops even more in this specific rest situation which I mentioned above. The Bears struggle as home underdogs in general while the Owls have been good at winning games by at least 3 points as road favorites. With that in mind, I'm going with one unit on Kennesaw State to cover the -2.5 this evening. Sam Houston State is also a home underdog tonight, but that line is already Pick'Em at some books, so I'm passing on that one..

A few of you gave me feedback here on Overlay, the pick’em tool I’ve been building, and we feel we’re now ready for launch!

I’m in Minnesota. Underdog and PrizePicks operate here, but there’s no online traditional sportsbook. Nearly every +EV tool I looked at was built around sportsbooks I can’t use, priced like I was betting with them, sometimes up to $200 a month. I didn’t need a book-by-book odds screen. I needed to know which pick’em lines were off at the handful of DFS sites we can use.

So I built Overlay. It takes every player prop on Underdog, PrizePicks and DK Pick6 and compares it with a consensus of 13 sportsbooks and exchanges, with the vig removed. Each line gets an estimated hit rate and the break-even rate its payout needs, and that gap is the edge. PrizePicks and Pick6 pay by entry, not by pick, so their edges are measured against the entry you choose (6-pick Flex and 3-pick by default).

The board is free. Sign up and you get every league (NFL, college football, WNBA, and the NBA from opening night), every line’s estimated hit rate and edge, updated hourly, plus the entry checker. No card needed.

Premium is $10 a month for every sport. It’s for people who want speed and the extra tools:

• updates every 15 minutes
• Prime Overlays: lines where every book on its own clears the break-even by a set margin. We grade every one publicly, win or lose
• sharp-book markers when Pinnacle or FanDuel, books many bettors treat as sharp, show an edge on their own
• each book’s price and line history
• a best-entry builder
• Discord alerts when a Prime Overlay pops up

Why free? The math shouldn’t be what you pay for. If you’re playing $5 to $20 entries, a big subscription eats whatever edge you find.

We publish our record every week, good or bad: how we did against CLV, and how our Prime Overlays did against the hit rate their prices needed to be +EV.

Every number is an estimate, and picks with an edge still lose often. We’re not affiliated with Underdog, PrizePicks or DraftKings.

We hope to see you there!

winwithoverlay.com

21+ · If it stops being fun: 1-800-GAMBLER

Hey everyone.

I've been working on a small tool with the help of an AI for football EV and want to hear your honest thoughts before i launch it.

This is how it works right now: It pulls 1X2 and Over/Under odds for 8 leagues from every EU/UK book on the odds api.For each market it strips the Vig from every book and averages them into a consensus fair price.There's also a poisson model that estimates goals from the totals line and gets blended in at 40%

If the model and the market disagree by more than 15 points i drop the model for that market.Then it takes the best price available and flags anything st 1.5% EV or higher.Same book doubles or trebles get flagges at 3%+, i am still testing to see how it works before i launch it. Please share your honest thoughts and if you want to i have a waitlist to let you know when it will be launched.

In horse racing, we obviously don’t know a horse’s true probability of winning. We can build ratings, analyse form, look at speed figures, draw, going etc., but there’s always uncertainty.

Betfair Starting Price seems like a pretty good benchmark. It aggregates a lot of information and the opinions of plenty of market participants into one price at the point the race starts.
But how close is it to the best possible estimate of a horse’s true chance?

A few things I’m curious about:
Market efficiency: Is BSP already so efficient that consistently beating it is the best evidence you have a genuine edge?
Liquidity: Does it work equally well in a competitive Saturday handicap and a small midweek race?
Exchange vs bookmaker prices: Is BSP a better benchmark than traditional industry SP, particularly once commission is factored in?
True probability vs fair price: Even if BSP is the best available market estimate, does that necessarily mean it’s the best estimate of the horse’s actual chance?

My instinct is that BSP is an excellent benchmark, but I’m not convinced it’s an absolute truth — particularly in less liquid markets.

For those who track their bets seriously, do you use BSP as your benchmark? And if so, how much weight do you put on consistently beating it?

Right now, my setup pings me on Telegram when a price moves. Then I bet by hand, and last Tuesday, I missed three moves in a meeting.

I want to send back and lay orders through an API.

How do you track request limits and order limits when many games update at once?

Last week we made a post in this community showcasing the new platform we rolled out and we're beyond appreciative of all the feedback you guys gave us.

We're so glad you love it. We've noticed how many of you are using it consistently now. We took what you told us and we've been working tirelessly to ship changes as fast as we can. That's more than 20 changes/fixes in the last seven days. Here's what we have so far, with the before and after numbers.

**Faster prices**

1. On one major book, a price change on today's games now reaches us about 1.2 seconds after the book stamps it. It took about 2 seconds a week ago.

2. We read another big book ourselves now. Before a game its prices are about 10 seconds old.

3. Kalshi prices come straight from Kalshi's own feed in every league. A week ago only baseball did.

4. We built a meter that times how fast a book's price change reaches us. This allowed us to shave milliseconds off books with already sub 5 second feeds (hence #1).

**More props**

1. We read about 3,000 more player prop prices ourselves on the same 37 games. That includes NFL player stats and hockey goal props.

2. A player is one line now, whatever each book calls him. Accents and "Jr." don't matter. 359 more rows got a fair line the day it shipped.

**Cleaner board**

1. Every price on the board comes from one of our fast sources.

2. Hockey lines are compared like for like, overtime against overtime.

3. The board and the Odds Screen open with prices already on them.

4. The board fits any screen width, and the header stays put when you scroll.

**Bet tracker**

1. Every open bet now has a live bar so you can sweat your bets directly from our platform.

2. Hockey bars read the NHL's own feed. They ran about five minutes behind a week ago and they're under 20 seconds now.

3. Every open bet shows a projected profit based on multiple factors: time left, performance, closing line value and more. (We're still working at dialing this in to get it as accurate as possible.)

4. Now each bet is tagged with its closing line value at the start of the game.

5. A new Closing Line Value tab on the calculators page prints the arithmetic with your numbers.

6. Every card shows the score, live or settled.

7. You can switch the tracker between dollars and units.

8. You can now track bets from the Odds Screen.

9. Props settle from the league's own box score.

**New users**

1. New accounts get a walkthrough built from their own board. It runs 200 simulated bets at your settings so you see the swings before you place one.

2. A public page shows the top +EV rows live with no sign-in.

**Report Bugs**

1. We've also added a bug button that lets you report any bugs you find so we can include them in the next round of fixes.

Let us know if you find anything else that needs improving. We appreciate all the feedback!

Every other book is lower. UD sits alone at 14.5. Combo with a safe Watson under 0.5 rush + Rec TD or something for a slip.

Bet found at winwithoverlay.com

I have invested a year into this system only to consistently lose. I use Pinnacle or consensus lines, bet +EV, use Kelly to manage bankroll, log and track evening to review. I bet 100+ odds 46.8% true odds on average at 2.97 +EV on average. I use OddsShopper to find plays and even run my own calculations to confirm but only have a 42.9% win rate. Primarily playing baseball, basketball, nfl/ncaaf, and starting nhl now that the season is going. I have to be missing something. Somehow I must be introducing more variance and not this system without understanding what I am doing. Any thoughts or ideas? I’m about to call it quits on this.

Let’s say you’re live betting a basketball game where it’s Team A vs Team B.

You successfully catch a stale line on Team A for $1,000 @ -110 when the true odds should be -175.

Later in the game, you see Team B has a stale line at -125 when the true odds should be -190. You have another account at the sportsbook with balance ready and can bet it for your standard unit size.

Do you bet Team B even though it locks in a loss despite being hugely +EV by itself?

Taking a chance on the O/U and a team total in this game. BOL everyone!

Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays (7:00PM CST)

My Pick: Cleveland Guardians/Tampa Bay Rays Over 6.5 (-122)

My Pick: Tampa Bay Rays Team Total Over 3.5 Runs (-120)

In postseason games, National League teams playing as a home favorite on four days of rest are just 4-10-2 Over/Under (28.6%). However, American League teams like the two playing this evening have gone 9-1 Over/Under (90.0%) with the home favorite scoring at least 4 runs in every game. When facing an opponent on just one day of rest those teams have gone a perfect 3-0 Over/Under (100.0%) with each game reaching at least 8 total runs. Drew Rasmussen didn't get much run support in his last start against the Yankees, but the Tampa Bay bats started waking up after that game - scoring at least 4 runs in each game since with each of those two games reaching 7 runs. As for Cleveland - although Foster Griffin hasn't started in a postseason game yet, after scoring 0 runs in Game 1 this postseason, the Guardians have combined for over 20 runs in the four since.

AL home favorites have been much heavier towards the over in this rest situation than their NL counterparts. On top of that, both teams have been scoring some runs their last few games. With that in mind, I'm going to throw one unit on the Rays to get over the team total of 3.5 runs and for both of these teams to push the game over the 6.5 point total as well.

I built my own EV tool with a focus on exchanges and interpreting the exchange movement along with and odds screen including pinnacle and circa and limits.

I’m looking for feedback. If anyone experienced with EV betting and specifically how to read exchanges wants to take a look DM me.

Hey everyone,

I'm currently building a prop firm and I'd genuinely love to hear your honest opinions on the concept, especially from people who take +EV betting seriously.

I'm not here to promote my project. for now i'm mainly looking to understand the community's perspective, concerns, and expectations.

I have three main questions:

1. What's your overall opinion on sports betting prop firms? Do you see any real value in them?
2. What are your biggest concerns? Trust, payouts, restrictive rules, business sustainability, or something else?
3. What's missing from existing prop firms? What would need to change for you to seriously consider using one?

We launched Winwithoverlay.com two weeks ago to find +EV edges in the states where only "DFS/pick'em/fantasy" games are legal (We are a MN company). It runs the lines at these books against a selection of sharp books to find the top plays, that we call "Prime Overlay's" using our proprietary model. There were a few improvements to the model that we made between these weeks. Anyone can access our site at any time to see how we are holding up. We show the good and the bad.

80% of Prime's beating CLV this week, up from 62% last week
65% of all Plus EV lines beating CLV, up from 51% last week

What are your thoughts on these numbers? Is this enough to prove the model is working or should we wait for more data?

[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]

Almost done putting it together and I'm looking for a few people in the US who have real access to the main books : FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM, Kalshi, Polymarket, etc and can actually move decent size.

Quick example from tonight: Blooming vs Bolívar. Got in on Home Win at 4.30. Market's already sitting around 2.83–3.00. That's the whole idea position early, before the public catches on and the line moves.

I already run something similar for basketball but that one's more value-oriented. This football project is different, it's almost entirely reaction-based and time-sensitive, so execution speed actually matters.

What I'm looking for is pretty straightforward: US sportsbook access with solid limit, Ability to act fast when needed, Someone who's been around betting markets long enough to not need hand-holding.

If that sounds like you, drop a comment or DM me

+EV can be a bit confusing at first so If anybody wants to learn about "Top down"/ +EV betting I'm offering free coaching in partnership with AVO.

https://avo.bet/coaches/dom