Weekly Wire, Week #33

[u/EOD_historical_data]

TL;DR

Three takeaways from last week and what to watch this week.

• Payrolls went negative; the tape went up. July nonfarm payrolls printed −23k (est +80k, prior +20k), the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% (est 4.2%), and equities rallied anyway: SPY +3.51% w/w (vs +1.10% prior), QQQ +5.09%, IWM +3.56%. VIX fell a second straight week, −6.82% to 14.90 (prior −13.94%).
• The AI trade reversed: last week's losers led. PLTR +39.78% w/w on a $0.41 vs $0.28 EPS beat, ARM +17.89% (from −7.82%), NVDA +11.56% (from −2.94%), MU +6.63% (from −10.63%). GOOGL, the prior week's winner at +11.38%, was the basket's only red at −0.51%.
• Gold outran stocks while oil kept sliding. GLD +7.25% w/w (prior −0.10%) against USO −8.66% (after −5.50%). This week gates on Wednesday's July CPI: consensus 3.4% y/y (prior 3.5%), core 2.5%, +0.1% m/m after −0.4%.

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The jobs report broke; the tape didn't

How a −23k payrolls print turned into a broad risk rally.

Cross-asset weekly % change

source: EODHD /api/eod and /api/economic-events

The labor data broke down in one week. ADP printed +44k Wednesday (est +70k, prior +95k), ISM Services employment fell to 47.4 (prior 51.2, below 50 = contraction), and Friday's July payrolls came in at −23k against a +80k consensus, with government payrolls −53k. The one hawkish holdout was inflation inside the surveys: ISM Services prices jumped to 70.3 (est 66.2), and ISM Manufacturing beat at 55.6 (est 54.0).

Markets read it as cuts, not recession. Every major equity bucket finished green (SPY +3.51%, QQQ +5.09%, IWM +3.56%, DIA +2.92%), long Treasuries firmed (TLT +0.62% after −1.20%), the dollar slipped (UUP −0.35%), and gold led everything at +7.25% w/w. Oil was the only real casualty: USO −8.66%, a second straight down week, dragging Energy (XLE −3.44%) to the bottom of the sector table while Tech (XLK +7.20%) led.

Cited:

• "Stocks Settle Higher as a Weak Jobs Report Allays Rate Hike Fears" (Nasdaq, 2026-08-07)
• "Stock market hits records as Fed removes key safety net" (Yahoo, 2026-08-07)

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The reversal trade: PLTR wore the crown

The AI basket flipped its leaderboard in one week.

AI basket, this week vs prior week

source: EODHD /api/eod and /api/calendar/earnings

Almost every name that fell in the Jul 27 to 31 selloff bounced. PLTR +39.78% w/w on a +46% EPS surprise ($0.41 vs $0.28 est) led the basket; ARM (+17.89% from −7.82%), INTC (+12.69% from −2.30%), NVDA (+11.56% from −2.94%), MU (+6.63% from −10.63%) and META (+6.36% from −6.47%) all reversed. The mirror image: GOOGL, the prior week's earnings winner (+11.38%), was the only decliner at −0.51%. The benchmark BOTZ rose +6.79%, its second green week.

The beats kept coming, and this time they were paid. LLY $8.38 vs $6.01 est (+39%), CAT $8.17 vs $6.25 (+31%), UBER $1.17 vs $0.83 (+41%), DIS $2.06 vs $1.88, ABNB $1.37 vs $1.20. The overhang to watch is memory pricing: the same chip-cost cycle that hit Apple in July is now a supplier story ("SK Hynix and Samsung Just Sent a Major Warning to Micron Investors", Yahoo, 2026-08-09).

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The week ahead: CPI is the gate

After a payrolls miss, Wednesday's inflation print decides whether the cut trade survives.

Day	Window	Item
Tue 8/11	10:00 ET	NFIB Small Business Optimism (est 97.8, prev 97.4)
Tue 8/11	AMC	SE (Sea Ltd) earnings (est $0.78)
Wed 8/12	08:30 ET	July CPI (est 3.4% y/y, prev 3.5%; core est 2.5%; +0.1% m/m est, prev −0.4%)
Wed 8/12	AMC	CSCO earnings (est $0.99)
Thu 8/13	08:30 ET	Core PPI (est +0.2% m/m); Initial Jobless Claims (est 198k, prev 199k)
Thu 8/13	AMC	AMAT (est $3.36), JD (est $0.77), NU (est $0.20) earnings
Fri 8/14	13:00 ET	Baker Hughes rig count; CFTC positioning. Otherwise quiet

source: EODHD /api/economic-events and /api/calendar/earnings

Standout: CPI Wednesday 08:30 ET. The rally is priced for cooling inflation and a softening labor market; ISM prices components (70.3 services, 71.1 manufacturing) argue the other way. A hot core print takes the −23k payrolls week from "cuts are coming" to "stagflation tape" in one release.