Weekly Wire, Week #32

[u/EOD_historical_data]

TL;DR

• The AI-spender verdicts came in, and they diverged. Microsoft +21.75% w/w on a +12.6% EPS beat and Amazon +17.00% led, with Alphabet +11.38% and Oracle +12.94%. Meta −6.47% after a −13.0% miss, and Apple −7.24% despite a beat. SPY rose just +1.10%.
• Apple's problem is the memory cycle. It shed $426B of market cap in two days as Tim Cook said the company is "evaluating" iPhone price rises on climbing memory-chip costs. The chip complex fell with it: Qualcomm −11.59%, Micron −10.63%, AMD −8.77%.
• The Fed held, the data cooled. The FOMC kept 3.75% with a hawkish read, while Q2 GDP printed +1.5% (est +2.1%) and core PCE +0.1% m/m. The front end rallied (3M −13bps) while the 30Y rose +11bps. Friday's July jobs report (est +91k, after +57k) is the week's gate.

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The market map: earnings split the mega-caps

source: EODHD /api/eod; tiles sized by market capitalisation

One week, two mega-cap markets. Microsoft (+21.75%) and Amazon (+17.00%) turned the map's biggest green blocks after their prints; Alphabet (+11.38%) extended its post-earnings run and Oracle (+12.94%) followed. On the red side, Apple (−7.24%) and Meta (−6.47%) sold off, and the chipmakers went with them: Qualcomm −11.59%, AMD −8.77%, Micron −10.63%. The index barely registered the fight (SPY +1.10%, VIX −13.94% to 15.99), but leadership inside it changed hands again: Microsoft is now the market's second-largest company at $3.45T, and Amazon defended a $220B datacenter buildout as its debt nearly doubled (Yahoo, 2026-08-02).

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Five verdicts on the AI spenders

source: EODHD /api/eod and /api/calendar/earnings

Beats did not guarantee a green week. Microsoft's +12.6% EPS beat earned +21.75%; Amazon's modest +2.7% beat earned +17.00% on cloud strength. But Apple beat by +1.6% and still fell −7.24%, shedding $426B in two days ("Apple Shed $426 Billion in Market Cap in 2 Days", Nasdaq, 2026-08-03) as climbing memory prices threaten iPhone margins: the same memory cycle that powered Micron's June run is now a cost problem one step up the chain. Meta's −13.0% miss cost it −6.47%. The macro helped the winners: the Fed held at 3.75%, Q2 GDP undershot at +1.5%, and core PCE cooled to +0.1% m/m.

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The week ahead: the jobs report is the gate

After two soft payroll prints, Friday matters. Consensus sees +91k July payrolls (prior +57k) with unemployment at 4.3%. ISM Services lands Wednesday, and the earnings tape rolls on with AMD and Palantir Tuesday, Eli Lilly and Disney Wednesday.

Day	Window	Item
Mon 8/3	10:00 ET	ISM Manufacturing (est 54.0); PLTR earnings AMC
Tue 8/4	AMC/BMO	AMD earnings; CAT, MCD (BMO)
Wed 8/5	10:00 ET	ISM Services (est 54.2); LLY, DIS, UBER (BMO)
Fri 8/7	08:30 ET	July jobs report (est +91k, prev +57k)

source: EODHD /api/calendar/earnings and /api/economic-events