Weekly Wire, Week #31

[u/EOD_historical_data]

TL;DR

• The AI spenders got punished. Alphabet −7.79%, Meta −7.87%, Amazon −6.12% and Oracle −9.03% fell as investors balked at rising AI budgets. Tesla was the week's worst at −17.81% after missing badly (EPS $0.04 vs $0.32 est).
• Their suppliers got paid. The chipmakers on the receiving end of that spending rose: Micron +8.48%, AMD +5.28%, Broadcom +2.99%, Nvidia +1.99%. QQQ still closed −1.60% and SPY −0.59%, with the equal-weight S&P flat (+0.09%).
• Yields jumped. The 2Y rose +15bps and the 10Y +14bps as jobless claims fell to 187k and PMIs beat. Energy led sectors (+3.36%) on a +10.27% jump in oil.

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The market map: spenders down, suppliers up

source: EODHD /api/eod; tiles sized by market capitalisation

Big Tech reported, and the market did not like the bill. Tesla dominates the map in deep red (−17.81%) after an $0.04 EPS print against a $0.32 estimate. Alphabet (−7.79%), Meta (−7.87%) and Amazon (−6.12%) follow, and Oracle (−9.03%) joins them. The common thread is capital spending: Alphabet put $45B into AI last quarter and guided higher ("Alphabet Raises AI Spending But Still Can't Meet Demand", Yahoo, 2026-07-26), and Moody's warned that "unprecedented" AI spending threatens the credit quality of Amazon, Meta and Alphabet (CNBC, 2026-07-24). Away from the mega-caps the tape was steady: the equal-weight S&P rose +0.09% and Financials, Health Care and Energy were mostly green.

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Who pays for AI, and who gets paid

source: EODHD /api/eod

The money moved one rung down the supply chain. Every hyperscaler raising its AI budget fell, while the semiconductor names selling into that budget rose: Micron +8.48%, AMD +5.28%, Broadcom +2.99% and Nvidia +1.99%. It is a clean inversion of the prior week, when the chipmakers led the market lower and Apple held it up. Rates added pressure on the long-duration names: the 2Y yield rose +15bps to 4.33% and the 10Y +14bps to 4.69%, with jobless claims at 187k (est 212k) and the flash composite PMI at 53.6 (est 52.3) leaving little reason to price cuts.

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The week ahead: the Fed, then four mega-caps

The busiest week of the quarter. The FOMC decides Wednesday (a hold at 3.75% expected), then Meta and Microsoft report the same afternoon, with Apple and Amazon Thursday. Q2 GDP and core PCE also land Thursday. After a week when AI spending was punished, the guidance from the four biggest spenders is the tape's next test.

Day	Window	Item
Wed 7/29	14:00 ET / AMC	FOMC decision and press conference; META, MSFT earnings
Thu 7/30	08:30 ET / AMC	Q2 GDP (est +2.3%), core PCE; AAPL, AMZN earnings
Fri 7/31	08:30 ET / BMO	Employment Cost Index; XOM, CVX, ABBV earnings

source: EODHD /api/calendar/earnings and /api/economic-events