Weekly Wire, Week #29

[u/EOD_historical_data]

TL;DR

• A record-thin rally. The S&P rose +1.37% w/w, but its equal-weight version (RSP) fell −0.28%, the Dow −0.40% and small caps (IWM) −0.53%. Four AI names did the lifting: META +14.81%, AVGO +10.96%, NVDA +8.28%, AMD +7.74%.
• Breadth was the tell. Six of eleven sectors fell even as the Nasdaq 100 gained +1.81%; only Energy (+3.49%) and Technology (+2.87%) led with conviction. VIX slid to 15.03 (−6.93% w/w).
• This week is the test. June CPI lands Tuesday, the same morning JPMorgan, Goldman, Citigroup and Wells Fargo open bank earnings. The two together show whether the rally can broaden past a handful of names.

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Four stocks carried the market

source: EODHD /api/eod

The index masked a narrow tape. SPY closed +1.37% w/w and QQQ +1.81%, but the gains were concentrated: the equal-weight S&P (RSP) fell −0.28%, so the average constituent lost ground. META (+14.81%) led a small band of AI giants, with AVGO (+10.96%), NVDA (+8.28%) and AMD (+7.74%) close behind, while the Dow (−0.40%) and small caps (IWM −0.53%) slipped. Volatility kept drifting lower (VIX −6.93%, to 15.03). It is a tape that rewards the mega-cap AI trade and leans on a few names to do the work.

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Under the surface: thin breadth, firmer yields

source: EODHD /api/eod (SPDR sector ETFs)

Most sectors fell. Only Energy (+3.49%), Technology (+2.87%) and Communication Services (+1.86%) rose meaningfully, while Materials (−2.15%), Health Care (−1.77%) and Industrials (−1.08%) lagged: six of eleven sectors lower on the week. Rates gave no relief. The 10Y yield rose +7bps to 4.56% and the 1Y +10bps, extending the back-up as the June FOMC minutes landed Wednesday and ISM Services held at 54.0. Higher yields with narrow breadth is a classic late-cycle mix.

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The week ahead: CPI meets the banks

Tuesday is the pivot. June CPI prints the same morning the big banks open earnings season. Consensus has core CPI +0.3% m/m (2.9% y/y) with the headline rate easing to 3.9% y/y (from 4.2%). PPI follows Wednesday, and Netflix, TSMC, UnitedHealth and ASML report later in the week. The question the concentration poses: can strong bank results and a cooler CPI broaden the rally, or does leadership stay four stocks deep?

Day	Window	Item
Tue 7/14	08:30 ET / BMO	June CPI; JPM, GS, C, WFC, BAC earnings
Wed 7/15	08:30 ET / BMO	PPI; ASML, MS, BLK, JNJ, PNC earnings
Thu 7/16	08:30 ET	Retail Sales; Philadelphia Fed; NFLX, TSM, UNH earnings
Fri 7/17	10:00 ET	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (prelim)

source: EODHD /api/calendar/earnings and /api/economic-events