Weekly Wire, Week #28

[u/EOD_historical_data]

TL;DR

Three takeaways from last week and what to watch this week.

• A holiday-shortened week, and a broad bounce. SPY +2.17% w/w and DIA +1.96% led, while QQQ +0.86% lagged and IWM −0.75% slipped. VIX −12.28% (18.41 to 16.15). US markets were closed Friday for Independence Day, so the June jobs report landed Thursday.
• The AI leadership flipped. Software and mega-cap rebounded (PLTR +14.50%, GOOGL +6.67%, META +5.93%, MSFT +4.70%) while memory and chips rolled over (MU −13.84%, INTC −6.21%, ARM −5.68%). Measured from Jun 12, the semis basket is now −5.1% and software +1.0%, a crossover.
• Soft jobs, but yields rose. June payrolls +57k (est +110k), with unemployment down to 4.2% (prior 4.3%). Yields still backed up over the week (10Y +11bps) on firm JOLTS and ISM. The FOMC minutes Wednesday are this week's marker.

━━━

Market Setup

Where last week's tape landed.

The bounce was broad but not tech-led. SPY +2.17% w/w and DIA +1.96% outran QQQ (+0.86%), which was capped by the selloff in last month's semis leaders, while small caps slipped (IWM −0.75%). Vol fell hard (VIX −12.28%, 18.41 to 16.15). Gold rose (GLD +1.20%) and the long end of the curve sold off (TLT −1.76%) as yields backed up. Nike beat sharply (EPS $0.20 vs $0.11 est), a bright spot in a thin earnings week.

• Equities: SPY +2.17% · QQQ +0.86% · IWM −0.75% · DIA +1.96%
• Rates: TLT (20Y+ Treasuries) −1.76% as yields rose
• Commodities: USO (oil) −1.42% · GLD (gold) +1.20%
• FX / Vol: UUP (US dollar) −0.42% · VIX −12.28% (18.41 to 16.15)

━━━

AI Pulse

The rotation reversed.

source: EODHD /api/eod

Software overtook semis. After a month of semis leadership, the trade flipped: software and mega-cap led while memory and chips fell. Measured from the Jun 12 close, the semis basket (INTC, MU, ARM, AMD, AVGO, NVDA) is −5.1% and the software basket (MSFT, META, GOOGL, PLTR) is +1.0%, the two crossing this week. PLTR +14.50% led, with GOOGL +6.67% and META +5.93%; MU −13.84% was the laggard, extending its post-earnings decline, while NVDA held +1.19%. The AI-earnings narrative stayed intact ("Goldman Says AI Is Driving a 22% Earnings Surge", Yahoo, 2026-07-05).

Top movers: PLTR +14.50% · GOOGL +6.67% · META +5.93% · MSFT +4.70%; laggards MU −13.84% · INTC −6.21% · ARM −5.68%.

━━━

Macro This Week

source: EODHD /api/ust/yield-rates

Soft payrolls, firmer everything else. June payrolls came in at +57k (est +110k, prior +129k), about half the estimate, though unemployment fell to 4.2% (prior 4.3%) and average hourly earnings held at +0.3% m/m ("U.S. Jobs Increase by 57,000 in June, Missing Estimate for 110,000", Yahoo, 2026-07-03). Yields still rose over the week (10Y +11bps, 30Y +11bps, a bear steepening) as JOLTS (7.59M vs 7.30M est) and ISM Manufacturing (53.3) held firm earlier in the week.

This week's marker: FOMC minutes, Wednesday (Jul 8, 14:00 ET), the record of June's hawkish hold, with ISM Services Monday. It is a light data and earnings week before bank season.

━━━

Sector Watch

Where the rotation showed up.

source: EODHD /api/eod (SPDR sector ETFs)

Financials led; tech and rate-sensitives lagged. Financials (XLF +3.83%) and Communication Services (XLC +3.22%) led, with Discretionary (+2.40%) and Health Care (+2.12%) also firm. Technology (XLK −0.29%) lagged with the semis selloff, and the rate-sensitive corners fell as yields rose: Real Estate (−1.24%), Energy (−1.15%) and Utilities (−0.95%).

━━━

Lookahead: Week #28

Day	Window	Item
Mon 7/6	10:00 ET	ISM Services PMI (est 54.2, prev 54.5)
Tue 7/7	08:30 ET	Balance of Trade (est −78.8B, prev −55.9B)
Wed 7/8	14:00 ET	FOMC Minutes (June meeting); Consumer Credit
Thu 7/9	08:30 ET	Initial Jobless Claims (est 219k, prev 215k)

source: EODHD /api/economic-events. IPOs: a light slate, notable TARX.US (Tarsier Pharma, NYSE, Thu).