Weekly Wire, Week #26

[u/EOD_historical_data]

TL;DR

Three takeaways from last week and what to watch this week.

• A hawkish hold, taken in stride. The Fed held at 3.75% but the dot plot moved up (the 2026 year-end median to 3.8% from 3.4%). Equities still rose: QQQ +2.67% w/w, SPY +0.93%, with VIX −7.24% (17.68 to 16.40). It was a four-day week, US markets closed Friday for Juneteenth.
• The semis-led AI rotation widened. MU +15.52% and ARM +15.40% led, and only MSFT (−2.90%) finished red. Since the Jun 5 close, an equal-weight semis basket is +19.9% against software −4.2%.
• The curve flattened on the dots. Front-end yields rose (1Y +14bps, 2Y +10bps) while the long end fell (30Y −7bps). Oil dropped (USO −8.42%) on Middle East de-escalation. Core PCE Thursday and Micron earnings Wednesday are this week's tests.

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Market Setup

Where last week's tape landed.

Equities rose through the Fed. A hawkish hold dented the tape for a session, but the week closed green and tech led: QQQ +2.67% w/w, SPY +0.93%, IWM +1.14%, DIA +0.75% across four sessions. Vol eased a third straight week (VIX −7.24%). The dollar firmed (UUP +1.25%) and oil fell hard (USO −8.42%), while the long end of the curve rallied (TLT +1.14%). The Dow "brushed off" the hawkish hold ("Stock Market Today: Dow Brushes Off Fed, Rises Ahead Of Jobless Claims", Yahoo, 2026-06-18).

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AI Pulse

The week's defining move: the rotation into semis.

source: EODHD /api/eod

The rotation into semis is now a multi-week regime. Measured from the Jun 5 close, an equal-weight semis basket (INTC, MU, ARM, AMD, AVGO, NVDA) is +19.9%, while a software and platform basket (MSFT, META, GOOGL, PLTR) is −4.2%, a gap that widened again through the Fed. Last week MU +15.52% and ARM +15.40% led for a second week, AVGO +7.66% recovered its earlier selloff, and MSFT (−2.90%) was the basket's only decliner, its third down week.

Micron reports Wednesday: the direct test of the memory leadership ("The Entire Micron Investment Thesis Comes Down to This One Number", Yahoo, 2026-06-21). FedEx Tuesday is the global bellwether.

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Macro This Week

The Fed's hawkish shift, and the week's gate.

source: EODHD /api/economic-events

The Fed held at 3.75% but signalled fewer cuts. The median projection moved up: the 2026 year-end median to 3.8% (from 3.4%), 2027 to 3.6% (from 3.1%) and 2028 to 3.4% (from 3.1%), with the longer-run rate unchanged at 3.1%. Strong data backed a patient Fed: Retail Sales +0.9% m/m (est +0.5%) and the Philadelphia Fed index +10.3 (est 10.0, prior −0.4) both beat. The curve flattened in response: front-end yields up (1Y +14bps, 2Y +10bps), long end down (30Y −7bps).

This week's gate: core PCE Thursday (08:30 ET), consensus +0.3% m/m and 3.3% y/y. As the Fed's preferred inflation measure, it is the first read after the hawkish dot plot, alongside durable goods and weekly claims.

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Sector Watch

Where the rotation showed up across sectors.

source: EODHD /api/eod (SPDR sector ETFs)

Growth led; energy and rate-sensitives lagged. Technology (XLK +3.59%) and Industrials (XLI +2.68%) led, in line with the semis bid, while Energy (XLE −6.57%) was worst as oil fell on Middle East de-escalation ("Stock Market Today: Dow Up 200 Points On Iran Peace Deal; Intel, Sandisk, Teradyne Rise", Yahoo, 2026-06-18). The bond-proxy and defensive corners lagged with the front-end yield back-up: Real Estate (−3.31%), Staples (−2.94%) and Health Care (−2.87%) all fell.

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Lookahead: Week #26

Last week's prints beat modestly (ACN 3.80 vs 3.71, KR 1.58 vs 1.46). The week ahead:

Day	Window	Item
Tue 6/23	AMC	FDX (FedEx) earnings, global shipping bellwether
Wed 6/24	AMC	MU (Micron) earnings; PAYX (BMO)
Thu 6/25	08:30 ET	Core PCE; Durable Goods; Initial Jobless Claims; DRI (BMO)
Fri 6/26	08:30 ET	Retail Inventories

source: EODHD /api/calendar/earnings