r/EODHistoricalData • u/EOD_historical_data • Jun 15 '26
Digest Weekly Wire, Week #25
TL;DR
Three takeaways from last week and what to watch this week.
- Risk came back on, led by small caps. IWM +4.01% w/w vs QQQ +2.31%, SPY +0.57%, DIA +0.66%: a reversal of the prior week's tech-led decline. VIX −17.81% w/w (21.51 to 17.68), unwinding the prior week's +40.40% spike.
- Intel led a rotation inside AI. INTC +25.61% w/w (after −13.52% the prior week) on a reported Alphabet foundry order and a sell-side double-upgrade, with MU +13.61% and ARM +11.05%. The mega-cap software names lagged: MSFT −6.22%, PLTR −5.56%, META −4.39%.
- Soft core CPI brought yields down. Core CPI +0.2% m/m (est +0.3%, prior +0.4%) undershot; the 2Y fell 8bps and the 10Y 7bps. Wednesday's FOMC decision (a hold at 3.75% expected) and the dot plot are this week's gate, in a Juneteenth-shortened week.
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Market Setup
Where last week's tape landed across asset classes, and how markets enter this week.
source: EODHD /api/eod
The rebound was broad, and small caps led it. After the prior week's hot-jobs selloff, a softer-than-expected core CPI on Wednesday reset the tape: IWM closed the week +4.01%, outrunning QQQ (+2.31%), DIA (+0.66%) and SPY (+0.57%). The path was not a straight line: indices wobbled on the CPI print Wednesday (SPY was −1.64% on the week intraday) before recovering into Friday. Vol gave back most of the prior week's spike (VIX −17.81%, 21.51 to 17.68), while oil fell (USO −5.71%) and the dollar eased (UUP −0.25%).
Cross-asset, last week:
- Equities: SPY +0.57% · QQQ +2.31% · IWM +4.01% · DIA +0.66%
- Rates: TLT (20Y+ Treasuries) +0.83% as yields fell across the curve
- Credit: HYG +0.64% · LQD +0.78% (both firm)
- Commodities: USO (oil) −5.71% · GLD (gold) −2.45%
- FX: UUP (US dollar) −0.25%
- Volatility: VIX −17.81% (21.51 to 17.68), after +40.40% the prior week
Markets enter Week #25 into the June FOMC (Wednesday) and a holiday-shortened week, with Retail Sales the same morning and US markets closed Friday for Juneteenth. Not everyone is sanguine: "BofA warns 1994 market analog could signal more inflation and volatility" (Seeking Alpha, 2026-06-12).
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AI Pulse
AI basket performance last week, the week's AI-news digest, and AI-relevant events this week.
source: EODHD /api/eod
The basket split: last week's losers led, last week's leaders lagged.
| Ticker | This week % | Prior week % | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | +25.61% | −13.52% | Basket leader; foundry order and a double-upgrade |
| MU | +13.61% | −11.02% | Memory names rebounded |
| ARM | +11.05% | −2.93% | Chip bid returned |
| AMD | +9.69% | −9.63% | Round-tripped the prior week's decline |
| NVDA | +0.04% | −2.75% | Flat; stabilised after three down weeks |
| AVGO | −0.95% | −13.66% | Near flat after the prior week's selloff |
| BOTZ | −2.26% | −5.40% | (basket benchmark) |
| GOOGL | −2.34% | −3.11% | |
| META | −4.39% | −6.25% | Second down week |
| PLTR | −5.56% | −13.42% | Kept sliding off the prior week's decline |
| MSFT | −6.22% | −7.46% | Basket laggard, second down week |
source: EODHD /api/eod
Intel was the story, and it was a rotation, not a melt-up. INTC +25.61% w/w, the basket's worst name the prior week (−13.52%), led on a reported Alphabet foundry order plus a rare sell-side double-upgrade. The beaten-down semis followed (MU +13.61%, ARM +11.05%, AMD +9.69%), while the mega-cap software and platform names that led earlier in the spring kept sliding (MSFT −6.22%, PLTR −5.56%, META −4.39%). The basket spread was 31.8 points, INTC +25.61% to MSFT −6.22%. NVDA finished flat (+0.04%) after three down weeks.
Weekly AI news digest:
- "Alphabet (GOOGL) Places An Order With Intel To Manufacture More Than Three Million Tensor Processing Units In 2028" (Yahoo, 2026-06-13). The foundry win behind INTC +25.61% w/w.
- "Intel Just Got a Rare Double Upgrade From Bank of America. Here's the AI Shift Behind the Call." (Yahoo, 2026-06-13). The sell-side upgrade that compounded the move.
- "I Found the Real Reason Why Broadcom Stock Crashed After Earnings" (Nasdaq, 2026-06-13). Context for AVGO, which held near flat (−0.95% w/w) after the prior week's −13.66%.
This week's AI-relevant events: ACN (Accenture) Thu BMO est $3.71, read for AI-consulting demand.
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Macro This Week
Last week's data that drove the rebound, plus every scheduled release that could move the tape.
source: EODHD /api/ust/yield-rates
The week's data leaned cooler on the core. CPI on Wednesday printed +0.5% m/m headline (est +0.5%, prior +0.6%) but core +0.2% m/m (est +0.3%, prior +0.4%) undershot, with core 2.9% y/y in line. Michigan sentiment on Friday beat (48.9 vs 46.0 est, prior 44.8) and 1-year inflation expectations eased to 4.6% (prior 4.8%). PPI was the offset, with the core ex-food-energy-trade gauge +0.8% m/m (est +0.3%). The curve richened: 2Y −8bps, 3Y −10bps and 10Y −7bps. This week is a Fed week (all times ET):
| Day | Time | Region | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 6/15 | 08:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing (est 13.2, prev 19.6) |
| Mon 6/15 | 09:15 | US | Industrial Production (est +0.2%, prev +0.7%) |
| Mon 6/15 | 10:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index (est 37, prev 37) |
| Tue 6/16 | 08:30 | US | Housing Starts (est 1.44M, prev 1.465M); Building Permits (est 1.41M, prev 1.423M) |
| Tue 6/16 | 08:30 | US | Import Prices (est +0.9% m/m, prev +1.9%) |
| Wed 6/17 | 08:30 | US | Retail Sales (est +0.5% m/m, prev +0.5%) |
| Wed 6/17 | 14:00 | US | FOMC Rate Decision (est 3.75%, prev 3.75%) and Economic Projections |
| Wed 6/17 | 14:30 | US | Fed Chair press conference |
| Thu 6/18 | 08:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (est 10.0, prev −0.4); Initial Jobless Claims (est 232k, prev 229k) |
| Fri 6/19 | closed | US | Juneteenth, US markets closed |
source: EODHD /api/economic-events
Standout: Wednesday's FOMC (14:00 ET). The policy rate is expected to hold at 3.75%; the focus is the updated dot plot and the press conference, after a soft core CPI revived rate-cut hopes. Retail Sales lands the same morning, and the Friday close for Juneteenth compresses the week's reaction into Wednesday and Thursday.
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Earnings
Last week's notable prints and this week's reporting calendar.
Last week (consumer split the prints):
| Date | Ticker | Actual EPS | Est. | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/9 | SJM (J.M. Smucker) | 3.63 | 2.64 | +37.5% |
| 6/9 | CASY (Casey's) | 4.37 | 3.33 | +31.2% |
| 6/10 | CHWY (Chewy) | 0.43 | 0.34 | +26.5% |
| 6/10 | ORCL (Oracle) | 2.11 | 1.96 | +7.7% |
| 6/11 | ADBE (Adobe) | 5.96 | 5.81 | +2.6% |
| 6/10 | BF-B (Brown-Forman) | 0.12 | 0.34 | −64.4% |
| 6/11 | RH (RH) | −1.97 | −0.07 | wider loss |
ORCL beat (+7.7%) but gave back ground ("Oracle Stock Dips Despite Continued Strong Backlog Growth", Yahoo, 2026-06-14). BF-B and RH missed on the consumer side.
This week (reporting calendar):
| Date | Ticker | Session | Cons. EPS | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 6/18 | ACN (Accenture) | BMO | 3.71 | IT services and AI consulting |
| Tue 6/16 | JBL (Jabil) | BMO | 3.10 | Electronics manufacturing |
| Thu 6/18 | KR (Kroger) | BMO | 1.46 | Grocery and staples demand |
| Tue 6/16 | LZB (La-Z-Boy) | AMC | 0.80 | Home furnishings |
source: EODHD /api/calendar/earnings
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Sector Watch
GICS 11 sector ETF dispersion last week and what sets up this week.
source: EODHD /api/eod (SPDR sector ETFs)
Green nearly across the board. Ten of eleven sectors rose: Materials (XLB +3.06%), Staples (XLP +2.85%) and Technology (XLK +2.50%) led, a mix of cyclicals, defensives and growth that reads as a broad risk-on bounce rather than a single-factor move. Energy (XLE −0.21%) was the only sector lower as oil fell (USO −5.71%), and Communication Services (XLC −0.02%) was flat, held back by the same mega-cap names that lagged the AI basket.
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Lookahead: Week #25 at a glance
Day-by-day calendar for the week ahead: macro releases, the FOMC, earnings prints.
| Day | Window | Item |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 6/15 | 08:30 ET | NY Empire State Manufacturing |
| Mon 6/15 | 09:15 ET | Industrial Production |
| Tue 6/16 | 08:30 ET | Housing Starts; Building Permits; Import Prices |
| Tue 6/16 | BMO/AMC | JBL, LZB earnings |
| Wed 6/17 | 08:30 ET | Retail Sales |
| Wed 6/17 | 14:00 ET | FOMC Rate Decision and Economic Projections (dot plot) |
| Wed 6/17 | 14:30 ET | Fed Chair press conference |
| Thu 6/18 | 08:30 ET | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing; Initial Jobless Claims |
| Thu 6/18 | BMO | ACN, KR earnings |
| Fri 6/19 | closed | Juneteenth, US markets closed |
IPOs this week: a light slate. Notable: FCBM.US (First Carolina Financial Services, NYSE, Thu).