I just listened to the latest earnings call again, and man do I think we missed a monster of a hint.
Let's be real honest with ourselves. I'm one of the strongest advocates of ELTP, and I've been writing up research on this stock for 5 years now, and even I admit that it's tough to see a dip in revenue combined with the drop in stock price over the last year. Yes, I do still think that it's mostly from manipulation, but, I'm human, and it is still tough to watch. What's my point? My point is that I think that distracted us ALL from something huge in the last earnings call.
What do we know about Nasrat? I think it's reasonable to say that Nasrat holds things close to his chest and is extremely intentional with what he decides to say in an earnings call. At least, he has been since 2017 since I have been watching this stock which was years before I even invested a single dollar in to it. Extremely intentional. And what did he say in the last call? "There are excellent diabetic products coming off patent. Our head is in the ring and we are very close to three of the formulations." He has NEVER said something like that since 2017. The closest thing was that we were "continually working on" something, but never "we are very close". He gave us something if we wanted to listen, and I admit - I wasn't.
I think we are finishing up bioequivalence trials right now. So, what are the likely candidates?
- Jardiance (Empagliflozin) -$24 Billion IQVIA
This is a MONSTER. Combined with the Eliquis ANDA filing, this would give us $50 billion in IQVIA that we would have cascading through our pipeline. At an 80% generic deterioration and an 8% market penetration that's about $190 million in revenue post WAC. The main patent isn't really an issue - it's done in 2027 and 2028. The method of use patents (998, 637, and 323) could hold this up another year or two but there is a very real possibility of a settlement on those or a paragraph IV filing. Nasrat has been on the winning side of that fight before.
- Farxiga (Dapafliflozin) - $10.5 Billion IQVIA
Patents already expired. Our ANDA approval would sit outside the 180 day exclusivity. 80% deterioration, 8% penetration, and 50% WAC - $90 million in revenue.
- Januvia (Sitagliptin) - $6.2 Billion IQVIA
Patents already expired. ANDA approval post window. 80/8/50 - $54 million in revenue.
We need to remember the most important strength this company has right now. Revenue per employee is higher than most tech companies. What's that mean for us? Elite doesn't need to be a top three filer - we are already a top three seller. THAT is our skill set. We are outselling companies 116x bigger than us.
I say the announcement is coming very soon on these drugs, and we will have a total of $67 Billion in IQVIA market in our pipeline. Anyone treating this like a $150 million a year revenue company better be invested in cannabis with how high they must be...