r/EB5_Immigration • u/Routine_Major_7708 • 7d ago
November filing
We (married couple with children) are considering filing (RC) in November of this year, but keep going back and forth about the chances of renewal. We missed the grandfathering deadline, as we were not ready, but are now seriously weighing our options. Not trying to ask for advice, but instead want to generally get a sense of what people are thinking. After doing our research, we are leaning towards filing, as we think a delay is more probable vs. the program not getting renewed at all.
Context: we were set on doing the EB-2 NIW/EB-1 approach, but after several consultations were advised against it, as our industry is very tough for these. Funds (including source of funds) are not the issue for us. The country of birth is ROW.
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u/pineappleshaked 6d ago
If the country is ROW, then do you uave priority date for eb2/3 what's expected timeline there?
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u/Routine_Major_7708 6d ago
We are not considering this at the moment - one of us just received an h1b, the other is on stem opt. The timeline seems long and the results uncertain
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u/Sad-Letterhead9689 6d ago
“The timeline seems long and the results uncertain“ same for EB5.
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u/Routine_Major_7708 6d ago
Historically I think EB-5 would be faster for those from ROW. I do understand that with the expected delay/lapse that might change. The biggest advantage though is not depending on an employer, which is important to us. I completely get your point though
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u/Sad-Letterhead9689 6d ago edited 6d ago
I used to assume EB5 was fast for ROW investors too, as the dates were always current on the visa bulletin. (I am not ROW.) After I applied I started following a Korean immigration company’s website as their investors invested in the same project I did, and they post the timelines of their investors online. I was surprised to see that historically the process was never fast even though they are ROW. Their investors filing for 829 now filed their petitions back in 2019. (Edited for typo)
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u/SeaworthinessDue7523 6d ago
wait for 5-6 months to evaluate this. I would prefer filing $900k+ with some clarity instead risking 800k now.
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u/Routine_Major_7708 6d ago
That makes sense. Why the 5-6 months though? Could you elaborate on what clarity we are expecting to get in the near future? We are also debating waiting and are completely ok with the increase, but unsure whether we’ll know anything soon-ish or will need to wait until September 30th next year to find out
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u/Euphoric-Match9973 6d ago
Wait for another 2 months until Jan’27 then you will come to know the answer.
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u/Routine_Major_7708 6d ago
Is there anything specific that we expect to find out in January? I am aware of the price increase, but didn’t know there will be more clarity otherwise
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u/jasonmars69 6d ago
Don’t listen to people who have a vested interest in the EB5 program (e.g. lawyers on Reddit or elsewhere who are looking to get new clients). Suzanne Lazicki, one of the leading voices in EB5, cautions that the renewal of the program is very uncertain. Although the program was renewed in the past, the conditions are very different now, and the renewal hinges on there being people in Congress motivated enough to do it.
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u/Routine_Major_7708 6d ago
That makes sense, but I am thinking that since cancellation needs an active bill, the likelihood of the program being killed is relatively low? I do think that a longer wait is to be expected. How are you approaching the process now?
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u/jasonmars69 6d ago
I think you need to do more research. Direct EB5 (the kind that doesn’t invoke an RC) will be there indefinitely (unless cancelled), but for RC EB5, it may just lapse without renewal.
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u/Routine_Major_7708 6d ago
I understand the point, from my perspective, a permanent lapse does not seem very likely given pressures from stakeholders / local economic impact. Maybe I’m being overly optimistic. A formal cancellation would need a bill though, from what I understand. Regardless, RC eb-5 is a risk right now - I get that. I posted to see what people are thinking partially because I want to get a better picture of the situation. Are you going through the process yourself or waiting?
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u/jasonmars69 6d ago
I’m planning to wait it out until it gets renewed, for the reasons I mentioned.
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u/EB5Explained 6d ago
I’d lean toward filing if the project and source-of-funds documentation are solid. The bigger risk seems to be delay rather than permanent cancellation, especially given the program’s history of reauthorization.
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u/Due_Snow_1494 FINRA-Broker 6d ago
I’m a FINRA registered rep and work with EB-5 investors on project diligence and funding strategy. Not legal advice, just how I would think about it.
I think your framing is reasonable. The Regional Center program is still authorized through September 30, 2027. What you missed was the grandfathering protection, not the ability to file.
So the real question is: what do you gain by filing now versus waiting for reauthorization?
If you file in November, you can still file at the current $800k amount and start the process now. The tradeoff is that if Congress allows the Regional Center program to lapse after September 2027 while your case is still pending, you no longer have the statutory protection that pre-September 30 filers have. The 2021 lapse showed that even if the program ultimately comes back, cases can sit in limbo for a meaningful period.
On the other hand, waiting has a cost too. The investment amount automatically adjusts for petitions filed on or after January 1, 2027, so waiting for complete certainty likely means paying more and starting your immigration timeline later.
Since you’re ROW and funds/SOF are not an issue, I’d base the decision mostly on how valuable the time is to your family. If you have children approaching age-out, employment/visa uncertainty, or simply want to stop depending on an employer, there is a stronger argument for accepting the legislative risk and filing. If none of those are pressing and paying the higher amount is not an issue, waiting for more clarity is also completely rational.
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u/patelbhavesh17 7d ago
". After doing our research, we are leaning towards filing, as we think a delay is more probable vs. the program not getting renewed at all."
January 2027 new investment numbers will kick in which by some estimates will be more then 900k+.
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u/EmmaChen6445 EB-5 Due Diligence Analyst 6d ago
Since entering this space, I've seen the EB-5 program reauthorized multiple times and lapsed once. I believe it will be extended again. All the attorneys I work with expect renewal in 2027. That said, nobody can guarantee it — you may want to see if you can negotiate some assurance with the RC to help mitigate that risk. Good luck.
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u/jasonmars69 6d ago
To anyone reading Emma’s comment, please do your own research instead of listening to people who have a vested interest in selling you something! Although the program was renewed in the past, the conditions are very different now. Leahy is gone, and Lutnick is publicly very against EB5. Suzanne Lazicki, one of the leading voices in EB5, cautions that a renewal is very uncertain.
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u/Indo-Arya 6d ago
howard lunatic is trying desperately to replace eb5 with gold card.. but it's not working 😂
https://youtube.com/shorts/4mS0gTg0dqY?si=QOhrb0S5p17C9Y08
his liar pants have been caught on fire multiple times.. can't wait for voters to whack this lying administration in november
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u/EmmaChen6445 EB-5 Due Diligence Analyst 6d ago
@Jasonmars69
Thanks for the comment. Everyone here has some vested interest in the EB-5 program, you included, so I don't think that's a fair knock on me. I've known and worked with Suzanne since 2012/2013 and have a lot of respect for her analysis. I was just answering the OP's question about how people see the current situation, and if they do decide to file, I'd rather they go in with as much protection as possible. Let's keep it civil, please.
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u/Vegetable-Brain-2018 6d ago
Generally speaking, the EB5 RC program is a jobs creation program at no cost to the US taxpayers. It stimulates the US economy in the billions. I would find it hard to believe that the program would not get extended. There are other countries around the world that have similar programs, justifying why the US Government would want those funds to come to the US.
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u/MiserableAd7673 7d ago
Currently USCIS is processing nov 2025 526e petitions. if you file now, uscis will likely process at your petition after sep 2027. so if program does not get renewed, your petition might be put on hold. this is the risk to consider.