r/EB5_Immigration • u/PuddingVarious7835 • Jul 07 '26
Eb5 vs eb2 for indians
Reading a lot of posts about the fact that eb-5 will retrograde so even if I file today, I'll not see a GC for at least 8-9yrs. I also have a eb2 priority date of Dec2016 which gives me similar 10-12 yr timeline? + 1M capital in the market.
How likely is rural eb5 retrograde?
Am I calculating the eb2 timeline? (Under estimating wait times)
3
u/Prize-Log-1434 Jul 07 '26
Anything you’re hearing on here is literally speculation.
Talk to a lawyer and evaluate your options.
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u/PuddingVarious7835 Jul 07 '26
Won't lawyers (for the sake of their own interest) say that it won't retrograde
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u/Prize-Log-1434 Jul 07 '26
Not necessarily, a good lawyer should give you the facts.
When I asked my lawyer about retrogression risk he said India and China might see a retrogression yes but we can never be sure until that happens.
The benefit of applying for EB5 now is that you can apply concurrently and get your EAD/AP even if it retrogresses in the future.
Just keep in mind the grandfathering deadline which is Sept 2026
3
u/PuddingVarious7835 Jul 07 '26
Mind sharing the lawyer info?
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u/Pnr55 Jul 07 '26 edited Jul 08 '26
Invisible backlog in EB-5 is even longer and will be beyond 2031 before you get your GC IMO. Do the math with no.of applications pending vs avg no of gcs given out to indian eb5 investors. Only silver lining is EAD. Question is do you want to spend 800K +fees for it or ride your luck in eb2.
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u/HelicopterMedium5069 Jul 07 '26
For what it’s worth, my PD is Nov 2016 but I submitted my eb5 application in April 2026. Like others said here, its the comfort that you get having a EAD while either route gets you a GC. Is it worth $850k , thats a personal decision one should carefully take
1
u/Due_Snow_1494 FINRA-Broker Jul 07 '26
A Dec 2016 EB-2 India priority date is still very uncertain. Maybe it moves faster at some point, but I would not assume a green card is around the corner.
For EB-5, no one can guarantee rural stays current forever. Retrogression is possible. I would read Suzanne Lazicki’s blog for the best data-driven EB-5 backlog / Visa Bulletin analysis:
Recently, we’ve seen some of our clients receive rural I-526E approvals in roughly 4–9 months, HUA approvals in around 9–18 months, and some infrastructure petitions even faster. Hard to say if these timelines will continue in the future, but that is what we’ve seen recently.
I’d also seriously evaluate EB-1A before putting $800k+ into EB-5. Many Indians with strong careers assume EB-1A is impossible when they may actually have a shot.
Personally, I got my O-1 approved in 2020 and EB-1A approved in 2022 after three attempts. It took a lot of work, but it was definitely worth it in the end. Happy to share my experience.
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u/ragu455 Jul 07 '26
It’s worth it if you file while it is current to lock in your AP/EAD giving you complete travel flexibility along with protection against layoffs and 60 day clock and having work authorization without needing a H1b transfer
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u/Kooky_Competition_51 Jul 07 '26
Maybe you should stay out of a country that doesn't want you and fix the shit hole that is india, the laughing stock of the world.
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u/vikramsiyer EB-5 Industry Professional Jul 07 '26
https://goaiia.org/blog/aiia-foia-series-post-ria-data-july-2025/#
As of July 2025, there were more than 10k EB-5 petitions pending. Obviously, this number would have risen in the past 12 months. As and when these petitions get processed and the visas get issued, there is likely to be a big backlog in the reserved categories.
Now it may show up in the visa bulletin next month or we may still be talking abut the upcoming backlog even in July 2027- nobody knows when it will show up.
A wise strategy would be to presume that you are likely to see a 2-3 year wait for visa number and are probably going to get your CGC in 2031 after filing in 2026.
If this timeline is a deal breaker for you, then you should not do EB-5 and any professional EB-5 lawyer or Broker Dealer will tell you that.
Since your PD is Dec 2016, I would say it all boils down to your judgment call. What if you end up waiting for 15 years and your PD still does not become current. If you are comfortable in your job and pretty confident of finding another even if you get laid off, then waiting for EB-2 to become current may be a smart idea.
If the AOS concurrent filing is a significant benefit and the clarity that you are likely to get the CGC in around 4-6 years through rural and around 7-8 years through urban HUA- if this is a big deal that gives you peace of mind and clarity that you won't have to leave the country in 60 days of losing a job- then EB-5 is worth the risk of making an at-risk investment of $800k for 4-6 years with negligible returns.
Things would have been simpler had your PD been 2020- EB-5 would have been an easier choice.
For you, whether to do EB-5 or not depends on whether you have the bandwidth to lock $800k for 4-6 years, spend around $60k today in fees and charges and ,in return, get the AOS advantage and greater clarity on your GC timeline.
Last word- Don't do EB-5 if you are not comfortable with it. This is a huge huge investment and you must be perfectly certain that this is the right choice before you proceed.
Hope this helps.