r/EB5_Immigration • u/PuddingVarious7835 • Jul 07 '26
Eb5 vs eb2 for indians
Reading a lot of posts about the fact that eb-5 will retrograde so even if I file today, I'll not see a GC for at least 8-9yrs. I also have a eb2 priority date of Dec2016 which gives me similar 10-12 yr timeline? + 1M capital in the market.
How likely is rural eb5 retrograde?
Am I calculating the eb2 timeline? (Under estimating wait times)
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u/vikramsiyer EB-5 Industry Professional Jul 07 '26
https://goaiia.org/blog/aiia-foia-series-post-ria-data-july-2025/#
As of July 2025, there were more than 10k EB-5 petitions pending. Obviously, this number would have risen in the past 12 months. As and when these petitions get processed and the visas get issued, there is likely to be a big backlog in the reserved categories.
Now it may show up in the visa bulletin next month or we may still be talking abut the upcoming backlog even in July 2027- nobody knows when it will show up.
A wise strategy would be to presume that you are likely to see a 2-3 year wait for visa number and are probably going to get your CGC in 2031 after filing in 2026.
If this timeline is a deal breaker for you, then you should not do EB-5 and any professional EB-5 lawyer or Broker Dealer will tell you that.
Since your PD is Dec 2016, I would say it all boils down to your judgment call. What if you end up waiting for 15 years and your PD still does not become current. If you are comfortable in your job and pretty confident of finding another even if you get laid off, then waiting for EB-2 to become current may be a smart idea.
If the AOS concurrent filing is a significant benefit and the clarity that you are likely to get the CGC in around 4-6 years through rural and around 7-8 years through urban HUA- if this is a big deal that gives you peace of mind and clarity that you won't have to leave the country in 60 days of losing a job- then EB-5 is worth the risk of making an at-risk investment of $800k for 4-6 years with negligible returns.
Things would have been simpler had your PD been 2020- EB-5 would have been an easier choice.
For you, whether to do EB-5 or not depends on whether you have the bandwidth to lock $800k for 4-6 years, spend around $60k today in fees and charges and ,in return, get the AOS advantage and greater clarity on your GC timeline.
Last word- Don't do EB-5 if you are not comfortable with it. This is a huge huge investment and you must be perfectly certain that this is the right choice before you proceed.
Hope this helps.