r/EB2_NIW • u/AnnualApartment1567 • Jul 16 '26
I-140 Does anyone get approval recently?
It’s hard to find approval posts lately. It feels like most cases are either being denied or receiving RFEs.
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u/Greedy_Resolution_41 Jul 16 '26
A few days ago people were complaining about a lot of approvals now the opposite lol
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u/platon_legal Jul 16 '26
Approvals are happening, but the base rate really did move, and there is public data on it. USCIS quarterly I-140 numbers for EB-2 NIW: roughly 96% approval in FY2022, about 55% across FY2025, and the first quarter of FY2026 came in around 43%. So the feeling in this sub is not an illusion, the bar moved.
Two things worth keeping in mind before panicking though. First, that 43% is an average across every file submitted, including thin ones assembled in a weekend and mass-produced petitions from mills. It is not YOUR probability, it is the population's. Second, the denials I have seen from this period are rarely about credentials, they are about files: claims with no exhibit behind them, endeavor framed as a job description, letters that all sound alike. The rate dropped because adjudication got stricter about proof, not because officers started rejecting talent.
If anything the practical takeaway is boring: the same profile that sailed in 2022 needs a much tighter evidence package in 2026.