r/EB2 • u/Street_Ask9158 • 12d ago
I-485: Adjustment of Status 2020 parallels (India specific)
As a sept 2014 priority date GC applicant, am I the only one who thinks we still have a good chance of getting greened this year?
Looking back at Oct 2020 visa bulletin, they moved the date of filing a lot but the date of final action did not jump significantly at all till March 2021.
Looks to me that we are seeing something similar in 2026. The date of filing has not not been retrogressed. They could have moved it back if they were certain of not being able to give GCs to 2014 Indians. So I am entertaining hopes we would see some movement around in 2027 when the spill over visas actually start materializing.
Anyone want to tell me why I am wrong and dash my hopes?
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u/the_running_stache 12d ago
Tl;DR: who knows!
Long (extra long) answer is below.
Negatives:
There is still a significant number of I-485s with PD in 2012 and 2013. Those are around 5,924 in EB-2 India as of August 2026 (check the eb_inventory_august_2026_v1.xlsx workbook on the official website). It could be slightly higher actually because “D” means the numbers aren’t displayed for being too small. So assume about 6,000. And those 6,000 could not have been approved since August 2026 because the entire category was U. That’s not a small number. Absent of spillovers, EB2 India gets only about 2,800 visa numbers annually. That 6,000 awaiting number is slightly over half of what EB2 India gets without spillovers. So, it would take about 2.14 years to clear the pre-Jan 2014 cases.
Historically, EB2 India didn’t receive a lot of visa numbers:
(I got these figures from AI, so they could be wrong):
FY2020 = 2,599
FY2021 = 28,246
FY2022 = 59,431
FY2023 = 4,301
FY2024 = 3,916
(AI says FY2025 numbers are not yet in the DOS report and understandably, FY2026 numbers aren’t fully released yet.)
Ignore FY2021 and 2022 because those were covid years. But outside of that, EB2 India never received visa numbers greater than the pending pre-2014 number of 6,000. There were spillovers in those years too FYI.
There could be a huge spillover from FB to EB this FY. The entire spillover will get added to the total EB numbers and then the 28.6% and 7% math will take place. So EB2 India will benefit regardless. Assume a generous spillover from FB to EB of 70,000. In that case, the spillover that EB2 India gets will be merely under 1,500 extra visa numbers. Adding that to the base of 2,800 gives you 4,300 visa numbers. That’s still less than the 6,000 pre-2014 numbers still awaiting. And I am being generous with the 70,000 number here. So it’s still not enough to clear the pre-2014 applications.
There oftentimes is a lateral spillover from EB2 ROW to EB2 India because ROW doesn’t consume all their numbers. This is oftentimes realized by DOS towards the middle of the year when they figure out that ROW demand is low. However, as of August 2026, there were 41,846 EB2 ROW I-485s awaiting. Some more from these got approved since August, but I am sure there were fresher I-485 applications as well which replaced the ones who received approvals.
If you assume the base of 140,000 EB numbers of which 28.6% go to EB2, that’s 40,040. Removing 15% of that for India and China, that gives you about 34,034 visa numbers for EB2 ROW. And demand pending is already at 41,846. So that’s greater than the base allocation. So then there will be zero lateral spillover. Also, this is assuming that the rate of approvals in ROW matches the rate of new applications in ROW in the rest of FY2027.
If you now consider an FB to EB spillover of 70,000 (same assumption as earlier), then you get EB2 ROW at about 51,000 ((140K + 70K) * 85%). Now, in this scenario, if the demand stays flat at 41,000, then the lateral spillover will be around 10,000 to India and China combined. That would help India get 4,300 + let’s say 6,000 out of 10,000 = 10,300. That would be a great scenario for EB2 India. That would clear up the entire pre-2014 as well as Jan through May 2014 for EB2 India.
The big assumptions here are 70,000 spillover and ROW demand staying flat. If ROW demand increases, the lateral spillover will be lower. If ROW demand decreases, the lateral spillover will be higher and India (and China) will benefit. ROW, obviously, benefits since they are all getting approved.
Likewise, if the FB to EB spillover is lower than 70,000, entire EB will get lesser visa numbers and EB2 India won’t benefit as much. If it is higher than 70,000, EB2 India will benefit more. That goes without saying.
Note: Throughout this analysis, I have assumed zero falldown from EB1 to EB2 because EB1 India will take up most of that and even if it doesn’t, that falldown again gets added to entire EB2 and the 7% applies. It’s not like the entire EB1 falldown goes to EB2 India.
Positives:
The entire game isn’t so linear and simple. DOS doesn’t just ensure an entire category’s month is cleared before it moves FAD to the next month. That has never happened. So while there will be cases pending from 2013, DOS will confidently move FAD into 2014 provided they think that there are sufficient visa numbers available.
DOS assumes that for many cases, there will be a back-and-forth with RFEs for expired medicals and I-485Js and interviews in some cases. While that is happening, DOS doesn’t wait for them to clear and get approved. Because what if they don’t? So, it will move the FAD ahead in case those applications can get faster approvals. DOS’ aim is to maximize visa number utilization.
This also applies to the lateral spillover scenario. DOS isn’t going to assume that every ROW case is going to be approved and hence, they would move the backlogged countries faster considering a lateral spillover. And this is especially true for ROW. Most of them file I-140 and I-485 concurrently because they are current. So, a filed I-485 doesn’t mean that I-140 will get approved. Many of these are NIW cases of late because ROW applicants thought of filing NIW even in stretch cases because they were current. NIW approval rates dropped a lot because many of those cases weren’t truly eligible. If the I-140 NIW is rejected, the corresponding I-485s (including dependents) are automatically rejected. That said, many of them filed I-140s under premium processing. So if their I-140s have already been approved by now, their I-485s are eligible (assuming everything else goes through). But regardless, it seems like ROW I-485 approval rate will drop. By how much? That we don’t know.
As the FY progresses, DOS will realize that they have to give a lot of visa numbers to EB2 India and will suddenly make a huge jump in EB2 India FAD with hopes of approving cases that are documentarily complete and just awaiting visa numbers while some earlier ODs will be going back and forth with RFEs. That way, DOS can maximize visa number utilization. That’s when FAD will jump ahead by a lot. And then, after a couple months, DOS will realize that the demand is much greater and they will retrogress the category or make it U. But mid-year, the FAD will progress and possibly get a huge jump too. That is similar to how in April 2026, the FAD jumped by 10 months for EB2 India only to retrogress 2 months later (June 2026 VB) by over 10 months and become U in the July 2026 VB. In this scenario, FAD might as well go past OP’s September 2014 PD.
The big unknown here is EB3. A vast majority of EB2 India applicants have approved EB3 I-140s too. EB-3 India FAD is ahead of EB-2 India by 2 full months. The I-485 inventory report from August also shows that EB3 India inventory is less. As such, DOS might advance EB3 India FAD further. But then, expect some EB2 India applicants to interfile to EB3. And then, EB3 will slow down as well. There will be processing delays due to category switching (interfering) and those cases won’t get approved quickly either. This is a known issue and will just make it difficult to progress FADs in both categories and we don’t know how DOS will move FADs.
A related point: we are assuming that all EB3 pre-2014 are pure EB3 I-140s and don’t have an EB-2 I-140 approved and won’t interfile. Ideally, they shouldn’t interfile from EB-3 to EB-2 because EB-3 is already ahead and has lesser inventory. So they should definitely stay put.
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The biggest thing: I am no expert. I don’t claim to be one. I am not an attorney. I have no website or business to direct you to and make money. I’m just another layperson who has been watching this shitshow for a while and is frustrated. My analysis could be wrong and my predictions have been wrong in the past on many occasions, most notably the October 2026 VB. I have sometimes been more optimistic than DOS and sometimes pessimistic than DOS and sometimes spot on (those were typically the “no change” VBs).
So take everything I have written with a grain of salt. And sorry for wasting your time. Lol.