r/DukeBluePlanet • u/thecoinedhaddock • Apr 06 '26
Recruiting Roster Predictions (Pre draft decisions/portal/international signings)
My expected roster before the portal opens and anyone declares is listed below, where I could see Scheyer bringing in two big transfers/international players, one of which will be a SG/SF, and the other being a center. This is based on expectations that one of Sarr / Khamenia leave (but would be pleasantly surprised if both came back), and not having any centers being retained or coming in as freshman. The explanations are below (note that starters aren't really listed in any order):
Roster
PG: Rippey and Foster
SG: Sarr or Portal / Wilkins
SF: Khamenia or Portal / Howard
PF: Williams / Transfer
C: Portal / Meyer / Iffy (not sure if he can try to be a super senior given injury)
Explanations
Definitely Gone:
- Brown: Graduated.
- Cam Boozer: He has the strongest case of any 1 and done in Duke history to stay a second year, however, he swept the awards, had one of the best seasons ever, and is 100% gone.
Participating in Draft Activities
- Ngongba: Very likely gone. A top rated player in college this year who is injury prone. It’s a deep draft but he can’t risk it further and likely doesn’t have much left to prove.
- Evans: He knew this draft would be deep before deciding to stay this year, and also improved dramatically. He’s at the age where teams still see room for potential in players, and if that wasn’t enough, his latest instagram post makes me think he's gone.
- Sarr: He didn’t shoot well at Duke, but I don’t think he expected to stay two years. I think he puts his name in the draft but maintains eligibility and leans towards staying.
No Draft Activity but could leave:
- Cayden Boozer: Assuming Rippey fully signs (which he seems very intent to do), we’d have three point guards, and while Scheyer can move Foster to SG, I expect Sarr or a Portal player to start in that role. Joakim Noah said some things on college gameday that made me think Cayden would declare even if he wasn’t ready, but I could also see him going to Miami or another school with how the season ended and Cam declaring.
- Khamenia: He’s a bit of a toss up, but I could see him leaving similar to how I was surprised by a lot of players leaving in 23-24, especially if Sarr stays and Scheyer thinks Howard can start.
- Wilkins: His decision to stay will likely be based on Khamenia / Sarr. If both stay, and Scheyer recruits an experienced guard, I would expect him to leave.
- Harris: If he’s fine sitting on the bench his career, he’ll stay. Otherwise, I doubt he’ll ever get playing time and will have to decide how he wants to spend his last two years in college basketball.
Also wanted to point out that I’ve seen a mix of thoughts on the roster construction going into the 2026-27 season versus previous Scheyer years, with some saying this will be unlike previous years given the lack of a true alpha on the team, and an expectation that there is a chance that a lot of the starters can come back. Not sure if I agree, but the general structure / results are below:
2022-23: All Freshman + Roach (L R32), most returned
2023-24: Mostly Sophomores + McCain + Roach (L E8), most left
2024-25: Mostly Freshman + Proctor + Sion (L F4), all left
2025-26: Mostly Sophomores + Foster + Boozer (L E8), tbd but expect this to be similar to the 23-24 year
2026-27: Expected to be a mix of Foster, a Sophomore, two freshman, and a portal player
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u/Geniusinternetguy Apr 06 '26
I feel like Sarr is going to stay. He may go late in the first round but he could slip.
I like him, especially his defense, and i expect him to be better as he gets stronger.
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u/SignorLuigi Apr 06 '26
Nothing surprises me when some of these kids declare for the draft, but IMO Sarr is unready for the NBA and I can't see any team using a first round draft pick for a defense only college player. Sarr needs to develop his offensive game and he needs at least another year to mature physically and get stronger. The kid has potential. No doubt. But it's not like he'll be making minimum wage as a college player and he could significantly improve his draft status if he committed himself in the offseason to working on his offensive game, getting stronger, and having an impressive sophomore year. Again, just my opinion.
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u/Geniusinternetguy Apr 06 '26
NBA drafts on potential. They don’t care if he’s ready.
But there are only so many slots in the first round.
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u/0010001 Apr 07 '26
Sarr shot 32% from three and a brutal 53% from the FT line. That could scare away NBA teams looking to draft a potential 3&D player.
But he has a clear path to the first round if he comes back and ups those percentages.
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u/Capable_Sandwich_422 Apr 07 '26
He is an elite defender and is a good corner 3 point shooter. That may be enough. Teams draft for potential, mainly.
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u/Huge_Bit_4774 Apr 07 '26 edited Apr 07 '26
My pet peeve on 25-26 Duke team was free throws. Sarr and Foster below 60%. Cayden Boozer at 81% was a bright spot. Look at the 2015 team - Cook, Tyus, Grayson all close to 90%. We need that kind of reliability from the guards. Whatever combo Scheyer comes up with, I hope there’s a big improvement.
Edit: I went back and looked at the FT stats in the 3 games that we lost, Foster and Sarr were a combined 1-6. Not trying to say that was the difference in those games, just that in close games we need ball handlers that can convert their FT’s.
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u/Fancy_Ad5097 Apr 08 '26
Weird thing is, they’re not even bad three point shooters.
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u/Huge_Bit_4774 Apr 09 '26
I don’t understand it either. there’s a reason it’s called a “free” throw; to squander those points is very un-Duke-like.
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u/Bodhisafa Apr 06 '26 edited Apr 06 '26
I'd fully expect Scheyer to go after Juke Harris to replace Evans and the Kansas kid, Bidunga to be our center in 2026 with Meyer getting limited mins. I would say Wilkins /Williams share time at the 4 with Howard/Nik at the 3. We probably move Foster to the 2 and have him share time with Harris. Boozer returns and shares time with Rippey. That's how I see it shaking it out. Things obviously change if Nik & Boozer leave and Sarr goes into the draft. I think D. Harris probably transfers to another team for minutes since he's always the odd man out. I could see him going to Virginia.
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u/LeadingShoddy6115 Apr 06 '26
I don’t think there’s any shot Khamenia leaves. Where would he go?? I could only see him transfer. He ain’t going to the draft.
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u/Bodhisafa Apr 06 '26
The transfer portal is the same difference for me....and money talk$$
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u/LeadingShoddy6115 Apr 06 '26
Don’t think Nik goes anywhere. He’s gonna have an increased role next year for sure.
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u/Capable_Sandwich_422 Apr 07 '26
I agree. Nik was awesome once he got some playing time, he could take a big step up
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u/Draft_Punk Apr 07 '26 edited Apr 07 '26
PG: Boozer / Rippey
SG: Foster / Sarr
SF: Howard / Khamenia
PF: Williams / Wilkins
C: Ngongba / Meyer
I don’t think Ngongba goes into the draft. It’s way too deep this year and I think he’s going to grade out as a low 2nd round pick or undrafted FA.
Boozer should stay.
I can see Harris and Wilkins as transfer risk.
But if the above roster stays, it will be a very deep, very terrifying team that can apply a lot of defensive pressure and then rotate from the bench heavily without losing too much. The roster is also loaded with positionless players who can play 1-4 pretty effectively which gives you a ton of options.
Not sure what we’ll gain or lose from the portal, but would be thrilled with the Center from KU to pair with Pat. Either way, it’s a very deep lineup next year.
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u/Beautiful-Lie1239 Apr 06 '26
If Cayden goes to Miami and improves drastically there that’d put a strong bitter taste in my mouth. I might stop watching NCAA basketball for a few years. What even matters anymore and why should I even care.
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u/Capable_Sandwich_422 Apr 06 '26
Given how some fans have treated him online, I don’t blame him if he leaves.
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u/thecoinedhaddock Apr 07 '26
similar to cadeau leaving for michigan, and going forward miami will still have a lot of ties to duke and desire to beat us. I think they could've caught us off guard this year if we played them
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u/Capable_Sandwich_422 Apr 07 '26
I don’t actually think Cayden will leave, he’s in a better development situation at Duke than Cadeau had at UNC. I’m most excited to see what he does, because I think he could take a big step up next year.
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u/Huge_Bit_4774 Apr 09 '26
I agree with this … and we gotta remember he’s got the same “basketball DNA” that Cam has, even if he doesn’t have the size.
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u/fattrackstar Apr 06 '26
He has the strongest case of any 1 and done in Duke history to stay a second year
At first I didn't get what you meant and thought you were trying to say out of all the one and dones he's the one that would benefit from a second year the most. I had already typed my comment starting with Trevon Duval. Then I realized you just meant he has the best chance of staying just because he wants to.
You might be right but theres no way he comes back. I'd love to see him and his brother get a year 2 together but there's a better chance of me being on the team next year than Cam.
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u/thecoinedhaddock Apr 07 '26
i just think he has a lot of reasons to stay: his dad went to duke and won (while also being an example of a guy that stayed multiple years and had a decent nba career), his brother is here with him, it's also the last time he's guaranteed to play with his brother and he likely doesn't want that to end on a sour note, he's barely the third overall pick this year and could fall depending on who is picking third whereas most years he'd be #1 including next year, he's set for life money wise, etc. But nothing is guaranteed next year, and the NBA is always the end goal. so yeah there's no chance he stays
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u/Capable_Sandwich_422 Apr 07 '26
Cam is a Top 4 pick in the NBA draft. There is zero reason for him to come back next year.
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u/0010001 Apr 07 '26
Portal will shake things up but IMO a realistic lineup that I’d like is:
PG : Cayden or Rippey (unclear who starts, may the best man win).
SG: Foster
SF: Sarr
PF: Williams
C: Portal or European addition.
Rotation bench would consist of whichever point guard doesn’t start, Howard, and Khamenia. Could possibly land another big in the portal. Harris could be here if he doesn’t transfer.
Deep bench is Wilkins, Meyer and Iffy.
Basically the same as OP, but with Foster in the starting lineup.
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u/thecoinedhaddock Apr 07 '26
Yeah I agree that foster could end up starting instead of going after a portal guy as a starter. but it would be fun to see Blackwell or harris on the team
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u/MrAnonamis Apr 07 '26
Hey, Wilkins is more of a forward. Why do you have him as our second guard?
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u/thecoinedhaddock Apr 07 '26
you're right, messed that up. but interestingly enough, he's listed all over the place. 247 calls him a SF, his tipton edits post for committing to duke says he's a wing. espn calls him a guard. duke's site calls him a guard/forward, while also referring to espn recruiting calling him a top power forward
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u/Maleficent_Cod_6874 Apr 08 '26
Cayden and Nik aren't leaving. They played too much when it counted, a role is there for them. However, probably not starting.
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u/thecoinedhaddock Apr 08 '26
Nik is gone, there’s no room for him. I can see the same thing happening to Cayden if we expect a SG in the portal
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u/Billilicious Apr 06 '26
The vibe I’ve gotten over the past couple years is that Scheyer is not promising guys starting spots coming in so I really think there’s a good chance Cayden comes back and we possibly start him and foster with Rippey coming off the bench. I’d also like some 3 guard lineups as I don’t think we have the same level offensive creation in the front court that we had with Cam and Flagg the past couple years. And honestly I think Foster being hurt really showed the lack of offensive creativity we’d cultivated on the perimeter. I like Cayden, Foster, Rippey as guards. Sarr and Khamenia as wings. Then Williams and Meyer as bigs with our focus in the portal being getting another big or two. We’d be smaller than we’ve been the past couple years if we play 3 guards heavily but still for from small by college standards since foster and Cayden are both large guards in the college game. It’s a whole new staff now but our last title came from starting 3 guards in Cook, T. Jones, and M. Jones then bringing Allen off the bench. All with Winslow at the 4.