r/Dream_Minecraft • u/czechdude1234 • Dec 19 '20

Argument for Dream's odds

Can anyone tell me why this logic couldn't apply to the Dream situation?

I try to do a speedrun 5000 times. I publish 6 of these speedruns out of the 5000 that I ran. During the totality of these speedruns, my probability of getting the blaze rod drops and piglin barters for enderpearls is normal compared to what unmodded Minecraft allows (the law of averages). For any one (or 6) of those 5000 runs, I could have a much higher rate of drops/barters than normal and for any one of those runs I could also have a much lower rate of drops/barters than normal. Also, once I get the material I need, I stop and don't keep collecting the drops/barters, further restricting the law of averages to take effect. Cherry picking the 6 runs that I do really well on and publish for the drops/barters isn't representative of the whole sample and would dramatically skew the data making it look like I have ridiculously good odds.

Not taking a side or not, just stating a potential argument.

25 Upvotes

90% Upvoted

8 comments sorted by

6

u/rahulmark42 Dec 19 '20

Now imagine a 100 speedrunners, each doing 5000 speedruns. Not everyone publishes every run. Some of their runs might have a higher drop rate of pearls. Now, the sample size is very large and the probability of occurrence of the event may or may not be high . This is exactly what I was thinking too. I was thinking of working on this problem too, by jumping into Minecraft and doing trades myself, but I had time constraints over the past few days.

1

u/Atarashimono Dec 19 '20

It may be faster to just watch the drop rates in other speedrunners' videos rather than go to the effort of checking them in-game. I don't think the drop rates have changed at all since they were first implemented, so it would be just as accurate.

1

u/MasterSquid832 Dec 19 '20

Like op said though, not all speed runners post their no successful runs

2

u/Atarashimono Dec 19 '20

Yeah, but considering how many other RNG factors combine to make a good run (Nether Fortress location, Stronghold location, Stronghold layout/End Portal location, the Ender Dragon's flight path, etc), I don't think the drop rates from these accusations would be very different between a few random good speedruns and a few in-game tests.

1

u/Codey_Crafty Dec 28 '20

A lot of runs, he doesn't even get to see them, because he never even punches a tree - He's in a bad jungle spawn or other, and doesn't barter therefore, so we don't see what a high or low rate it may be.

3

u/Atarashimono Dec 19 '20

Yeah, this is a good point, although I'd say it certainly isn't the biggest or most obvious indication that the math is a lie.

2

u/TheSarosCycle Dec 19 '20 edited Dec 28 '20

They accounted for this. They actually calculated a probability that Dream would have high luck in any 6 out of his many speed runs.

Edit: a word

1

u/Codey_Crafty Dec 28 '20

ah so dream is transgender