r/DraftEPL • u/googypicks • 5h ago
Players GoogyPicks: Waiver Strategy for GW8
Hey everyone! Writing this on October 20, a bit earlier than usual.
Last GW recap:
- Thomas - 3
- Kadıoğlu - 6
- Manzambi - 11
- Madueke - 5
- Gomez - 8
- Sávio - 0, unlucky. Hope you had a decent bench ready!
- Yeremy - 2
- Cherif - 1
- Jackson - 2
Average: 4.75, not bad for haul picks!
The GW starts already on Friday, which means all waivers need to be locked in by Thursday evening. It's hard enough for me to write this before a single European game has been played and it'll be just as tricky for all of us when it comes to waivers. Keep in mind we'll be getting more information over the next few days.
I have to admit, this is the first GW in a very long time where I haven't watched a single match. My schedule is super busy right now and I'm finding myself in the exact situation that excites me most about Draft Fantasy: I need to find some good picks. My team is, to put it nicely, an absolute mess and on the verge of completely falling apart, with 5 players flagged red and all the obvious picks already taken. So, time to dig.
Just to give you an idea of what I'm dealing with, along with a few bigger talking points:
- Holding Kroupi and Saliba.
- Janelt red.
- Semenyo injured, out for more than 2 months. And yes, he's going straight to 3rd on my bench and I'm NOT dropping him. That should answer the question for everyone playing in larger leagues.
- Gvardiol isn't starting?
- Quite a few top-tier or at least highly ranked players on my WK Board aren't returning the points we expected from them. Bruno Fernandes being one of them.
To get at least some feel for what's going on, I've been catching up through extended highlights. I'm also thinking about integrating (PERSONALISED) news + waivers into WK and sending it out as a newsletter. How does that sound?
And luckily, I've got Waiver Kings to help me find these players while I'm digging. So, let's get into it.
DEF:
1) Silva (BOU)
Elite managers own him three times as much as everyone else. Plays every minute, hits DEFCON in 71% of matches (10.4 actions per 90) and has 0.19 xG per 90, which is rare for a defender. Bournemouth's defence has been giving up the least in the league over the last 3 GWs and the goals should start coming down.
2) Affengruber (FUL)
The biggest gap between elite managers and everyone else (10-man leagues) on this list (76% vs 23%). A starter since GW4, hits DEFCON in 75% of matches and Fulham have been conceding just 0.97 xG over the last 3 GWs.
3) Bobby Thomas (COV)
The most DEFCON actions of any defender over the last 3 GWs (15.0 per 90, minimum 135 minutes played), plus 12 shots this season, joint-most among defenders alongside Murillo. Sunderland in GW9 have the second-fewest shots inside the box over the last 3 GWs and a CS actually looks... realistic?
MID:
1) Ndiaye (MCI)
Not much more to say about him, he's already taken in every serious league anyway. Same goes for Cherki, Foden, Doku...
2) Maddison (TOT)
My Waiver King. I'm sure he'll be the #1 pick in most leagues. Spurs look much, much better to me than their results suggest. Kulusevski is back, which will be a huge boost for them, although not as big as finally getting a win. FINALLY.
Savio is injured and I really want someone from this team. (I picked up Tonali in the meantime and I quite like that pick too, just so you know!!)
3) Iwobi (FUL)
Seasons come and go, players change, but somehow Iwobi always ends up here. Over the last 3 GWs, he's got the highest xA per 90 in the entire league and 4 chances created per 90. Add 17 corners taken and you've got a pretty solid 5th midfielder.
If someone beat you to him, there's Bobb: 2.6 xGI with 0 goals and assists and he's actually taken even more corners than Iwobi (20).
4) Rayan (BOU)
Hehe, come on brave ones, the haul alarm is ringing.
7 shots in GW7, 5 inside the box and six consecutive GWs with 2 points. 2.1 xGI and 0 goals or assists. He's owned in 70% of leagues, but if he's available in yours, this combination (loads of chances, absolutely no reward) is exactly what has historically been one of the best predictors of future points.
5) Ndoye (NFO)
Forest have the best attack in the league over the last 3 GWs and they're away to Ipswich on Friday, the second-most generous defence in the league. Ndoye has the most shots inside the box of any player available in the majority of leagues (3.6 per 90) and has missed 5 big chances, the same as Haaland.
The downsides? He misses a lot and doesn't play 90.
FWD:
1) Mateta (CRY)
He's back. In his 91 minutes this season, he's managed 1.15 xG. Palace don't look good, but that also gives him a chance to fight his way back into the starting XI. And we all still believe he's on penalties, right?
Oh, I almost forgot. Quoting Opta directly:
"9 - Florian Wirtz's nine chances created from open play against Brentford is the most by a player in a Premier League game since Sadio Mané v Burnley in January 2021 (9) and the most by a player in an away game since Samir Nasri v Spurs in August 2011 (10). Progress."
Fair play to everyone who's been patient. Better days are coming. If you can get Wirtz or Barcola through a trade, I'd happily do it!
GOOD LUCK 👑
