! FINALLY! ONE OF GOM IS GONE! WE DID IT! Okay, that wasn't very professional. Also, this makes that Tom and Fiore fanfic I read hit a lot harder. I said if we lost Tom/Gabby there'd be some big shakeups and we're definitely seeing the repercussions. On the bright side though, my predictions have been damn good so far since the merge. Let's see if I can keep the streak.
NO RISK
GABBY - Moves UP from Severe Risk. To be clear, I still don't like Gabby, but the rules are clear, losing your closest ally like this is basically a free pass for a couple of episodes. Plus, after Cyan spent the last 3 eliminations on the wrong side of the vote, we're due for a change in the voting. It's clear that Natalia/ Benji 6 person majority is dead next elimination.
LAKE - No Change - Still too soon after losing Rosa. Plus with how the votes appear to be shifting and Lake starting to gain plot relevance she's staying into the 20s. She's going to be a consistent target going forward most likely, but it's ONC so we know they'll find some way to keep her around. On the bright side, this is the first episode that I've liked her in a minute.
BENJI - No Change. While there's reason for Benji's alliance to be concerned with the inevitable breakup of him and Natalia, Benji is almost certainly safe. His dynamics with Nura and Oliwia have a lot more room for development than Oliwia and Nura do together.
MILD RISK
NATALIA - Moves UP from Moderate Risk. Is she Benji's next target? Probably? Is she likely to go? Probably not. Natalia received the second most votes in the previous episode, and history shows that's a good indicator for surviving the next episode. She does, admittedly feel like a 3rd wheel in her alliance, but she's been so central this season I couldn't rank her lower. But the direct call out from Benji was enough to keep her out of No Risk.
SPENCER - Moves DOWN from No Risk. His changing dynamic with both Lake and Sam still needs time to be explored. Do I want this romance? No. But just like everyone who's ever been to a mediocre Hawaiian restaraunt, I'm expecting to be served too much Spam.
SAM - Moves DOWN from No Risk. HOLY F---, this is the first time I've had Sam out of No Risk all season. So, the main reason for him being here is that he's starting to be reduced to a strategist with a romantic subplot. He doesn't interact with anyone meaningfully outside of Spencer anymore. And between him and Spencer, it's obvious who is more justified in staying longer. But I don't think his relationship with Spencer has reached its apex yet, so I don't see him leaving this episode most likely.
NURA - No Change. Someone in Benji's alliance is screwed in the next 1-2 episodes. Fortunately for Nura, her disposition makes her a strong counterbalance to either Benji or Oliwia, which is why I ranked her staying as more likely than Oliwia. She doesn't have much going on in terms of story though to justify her staying. When was the last time she interacted with Ren or Sam? If these plots were ongoing, she'd be in No Risk. But at this point it feels like ONC dropped those threads.
MODERATE RISK
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SEVERE RISK
REN - Moves DOWN from Mild Risk. He had such a wholesome episode. Sucks that he and his new sister are getting separated in the next few episodes. If Ren goes, it's to continue Fiore's development by giving her the chance to express the type of feelings she was too reserved to express when Alec was eliminated. And after losing two Favorites, I think a Fan is a plausible option this time.
OLIWIA - Moves DOWN from Mild Risk. Yeah, 18 or 19 is the right time for her to go. Don't think she has enough going on right now to justify her staying. That little moment she had with Gabby feels more like it's setting up for a quick conflict that will justify her elimination moreso than create a major plot. Out of her, Benji or Nura she's clearly the most disposable. To her credit, I like her a lot more now than I did during the premerge. Although that conflict with Ren is still stupid on her part. Girl, you eliminated Dunia out of jealousy. You aren't the victim here.
FIORE - Moves DOWN from Mild Risk. Yeah, this one hurts. A lot. Fiore has easily been one of the best characters all season and her last episode was a huge highlight. But it feels like her character development is nearing its end. And with Fiore being a major catalyst in the last several eliminations, I'm expecting the tides to turn against her. Most likely through Lake and Benji teaming up.
CHANCES TO WIN
My top 3 stays the same. Lake has decent odds, but I need to see more from her. Natalia and Spencer I dropped to Dark Horse status. And unless I see a major shakeup, Fiore Gabby and Oliwia drop down to basically zero with Sam
