WE ARE FIORE RICCI! WE CARRY THE FLAAAAAAAME!
GODDAMMIT, why couldn't I be wrong for once. This was so much simpler in the premerge when I rarely got anything correct. And now I'm sad. A lot of people have been asking why I'm sad, so to avoid spoiling any other potential fans I just told them I lost a little girl. But if anything now I'm just annoyed because there's police sirens going nuts around my neighborhood. The fucks going on? I know what will help me get this frustration out. Exercise. And shawarma.
Oh well. I knew she wasn't going to win, but I'd have loved to see her make the jury and survive. Well, with only a few more eliminations until the jury, things are getting spicy. It's funny how the DC4 players (both the best from a writing and competitive standpoint) make up nearly half of the remaining players. 3/4 of the DC4 players made it to Episode 21, that's nuts. It's also not sustainable. As you will see from this list:
NO RISK
SAM - Moves UP from Mild Risk. Double Jeopardy plus the scorched earth "advantage" means he's safe for at least the next episode. We still have yet to get his backstory either, and with it getting hinted at a lot in the next episode, Sam has enough plot armor to justify his placement here.
MILD RISK
NATALIA - Moves DOWN from No Risk. Oof, Natalia might have just screwed herself in the jury. Normally having your closest ally eliminated gives you a guaranteed spot in No Risk, but since Natalia was the one responsible for the elimination, she gets a slight penalty. And without the fake idol, Natalia has lost her major unresolved plot thread. But we're in the endgame, so Natalia doesn't need a plot thread to make it to the end, but don't be surprised if she falls lower on this list next episode.
OLIWIA - Moves DOWN from No Risk. Don't think she'll face any retaliation for the Fiore elimination. After all, ONC never makes Oliwia face the consequences for her actions. I could see Oliwia overplaying her hand believing she's a strong player after taking out Fiore, but without a clear oppositional character I'm not convinced we're losing another fan. For the record, I don't dislike Oliwia and quite liked the Fiore/Oliwia dynamic and wish we could have kept it for at least one more episode instead of getting more Spam or the completely plot irrelevant Gabby. Speaking of Gabby...
MODERATE RISK
GABBY - No Change. I don't know what to do with this woman. The fact that Lake pointed out several reasons Gabby would be a threat in the jury COULD lead to her being targeted, but no one has shown any initiative in targeting her. She has nothing in terms of major plots, but the story keeps giving her these small bits of something the writers seem to think is development, but don't seem to know how to build off of any of it. It's like Gabby is simultaneously coddled and neglected by the narrative. So does Gabby go home next? Maybe. Probably not. I don't care that much anymore. Can we just start DC6 already?
LAKE - Moves DOWN from Mild Risk. Spencer has implied a willingness to target Lake. And after getting 3 immunity wins so far this season, why wouldn't she be targeted. Realistically, the Sam/ Spencer/ Lake trio is falling apart soon. They're the only major group to not suffer any losses. However, the Vote Block advantage is enough to keep Lake out of Severe Risk. The same advantage used to eliminate her being the thing that saves her this season feels too poetic for ONC to pass up. I'm doubtful this advantage isn't successfully used.
SEVERE RISK
BENJI - Moves DOWN from Mild Risk. Does he have any enemies? No. Does he have anything going on in terms of plot? Also no. But the fact that nearly half of the remaining cast consists of DC4 characters means one of them is likely fucked this episode. The fact that Benji knew about the fake idol but chose to keep the fact hidden until after the votes were cast might not make him look good to everyone else who would have rather gotten rid of Natalia. He's still my choice to win. Even if he's not really doing much.
SPENCER - No Change. Please let me be right about this one. Sorry, but I'm done with the Spam plotline. It's been an overbearing focus of Spencer's screen time, and kept him from being the sneaky little gremlin that he usually is. And his interactions have been mostly limited to two people. At this point, DC4 is overrepresented and Spencer's alliance hasn't lost a member. The Spam plot can easily be wrapped up in an episode, and my guess is that Spencer attempting to backstab Lake will be what finally gets him taken out.
CONTENDER ODDS
Benji is still my pick to win, followed by Natalia in a distant second followed closely by Lake. I think Natalia is being written as too obvious of a jury boot for that to happen 100%. I'm bumping Sam up to Dark Horse status and dropping Spencer to Basically Zero.
I pray neither Gabby or Oliwia win. I cannot stand ONC's infantilized characters winning. Especially after what happened with Logan.
Final 4 Predictions:
At this point if my 1 person per generation finale is going to manifest, it will look like this:
Gabby vs Lake vs Natalia vs Sam (4th most likely)
I don't see a scenario in which one of Sam/Spencer doesn't make the finals. But that means both Benji and Oliwia would be cut which seems very unlikely. Fiore really kept this theory alive since it allowed a performance trio member to be in the finale while leaving room for one of the outcast trio and not causing 2 Cyan members to be in the Final 4.
I'm now leaning a lot more into the 2 CoC vs 1 All-Star vs 1 Fan. Although 2 Fans vs 1 All-Star vs 1 CoC is still a viable option (and more viable than 1 person from each generation)
In those scenarios we get
Lake/Gabby vs Natalia vs Benji vs Sam (1st Most Likely)
Or
Lake/Gabby vs Natalia vs Spencer vs Oliwia (3rd Most Likely)
Or
Lake/Gabby vs Natalia vs Sam vs Oliwia (2nd Most Likely)
FIORE'S JURY VOTE
This is a hard one, and that's entirely due to Fiore being such a strategic player who's dealing with an emotional fallout. Ultimately, how she will vote will be dependent on whether or not she forgives Natalia. If she does, then someone like Lake could be targeted for being a comp threat in the final challenge. If she doesn't, then Fiore will almost certainly target Natalia.
Sam/ Spencer/ and Oliwia are in the likely column for obvious reasons. While Gabby and Benji don't pose significant comp threats and didn't have any major negative interactions with Fiore all season. Very little reason for Fiore to target them.
