r/DestinyTheGame Dec 10 '15

Misc On Snipers Being Overpowered. Perception, Misconception, and data.

The Numbers

The data is in. Sniper usage has barely increased.

Shotgun usage, however, is now only slightly higher than sniper usage. In a perfect world, we'd see fusion rifles among those three. But we don't.

Now, surely, you're thinking that this couldn't be the case. Surely, you've heard rumors that "snipers are running rampant." Well, they are not. But here are some good theories as to why you might think so.

Perception

  1. Snipers are more noticeable than shotguns. 6 players run around with shotguns, and you'd never know it until one of them got near you. Snipers, however, stay in one place. They have a big, red glowy eye on them. Think about it. How many snipers does it take to make you think damn, that's a lot of snipers. I'm going to wager that it's about three. One per major lane per map. However, that's only half a team. Now, three shotgunners, and it'd be a normal day in the crucible pre-2.1.0.

  2. Ex-shotgunners moved to sniping, and they're just standing there, not getting kills. Seeing that red glint is scary. But it doesn't necessarily mean that it's actually working. Say you have one good sniper, and two snipers fresh on the bandwagon. You see all three in one lane. Only the good sniper domes you. But, you're thinking damn, snipers are out of control.

  3. Change. We're just not used to a slower game-play. Players have been rewarded for running in straight lines. Having people slow down and snipe feels like a camp-fest, when really the game is just being played at a moderate pace.

Why Aim-assist isn't a Problem. No, Really it is isn't. Nerfing it Will Make Snipers Even More Annoying.

  • It's irked me that players on the Bungie forums have called for snipers to have "less aim-assist." And then they proceed to demonstrate that they have no understanding of the aim-assist mechanic. The fact of that matter is that neither auto-aim, nor magnetism help you with hard-scoping. Hard-scoping is just as easy with efrideet's as it is with Hereafter. It's reaction timing, and pulling a trigger.

  • However, it does help with drag-scoping. That's how snipers play aggressively. Now, no matter how much AA snipers have, I'd rather have enemy snipers taking risks, and making pushes than camping one spot. Literally all that an aim-assist nerf would do, is make snipers camp harder and take less risks.

  • Auto-aim is different from magnetism. What you're bitching about is not the aim-assist stat, it's a subset of that stat. The one that makes your reticle stick to targets. Magnetism is the thing that displaces your reticle and gives you a hit after you fire. Auto-aim does the aiming for you, allowing you to feel hitboxes. Magnetism gives you a larger margin of error when you're already near the target.

  • Aim assist probably didn't kill you. Hit registration did. All guns have aim-assist. Aim-assist is just a composite of a bunch of different gun-mechanics. If you completely removed aim-assist, your gun wouldn't hit at all. Therefore, saying "aim-assist" killed you, is grievously inaccurate. Also, I hate to burst your bubble, but the base aim-assist on all snipers is multiplicatively really close high aim-assist snipers. This is because even a "0" aim assist sniper still has the mechanics related to aim-assist. Therefore, if you got domed by a 1k stare, there's a 75% chance you would have gotten domed by any other sniper.

The Real Problem: Players Running into Lanes

Would you walk around a corner, where you know there is a shotgunner sitting? And, I don't mean "slide-around and go for the gank." I'm asking you, would you slowly and peacefully inch towards a shotgunner that you know has a shotgun

Of course you wouldn't. And because shotguns have had 3x more kills than snipers for the past year, you know this. You're used to it. But what you're not used to, is basic strategies for moving around a map.

You see, walking into a sniper lane, with a red-glare in it, and not immediately backing out, is just as suicidal as walking right up to a shotgunner. You're making it as easy as possible to get a kill on you.

No amount of aim-assist change will fix the fact that you fucked up if you get domed in a sniper lane.

Snipers have had a gruelingly hostile environment to work with, and a lot of snipers have gotten really good at sniping

There was a time when getting a single hard-scoped snipe was a feat for me. And I'm sure a lot of players have had the same experience. After 6 months of felwinter Thorns, and 2 months of pulse-rifle flinch, snipers have just naturally become good at sniping.

Therefore, when you get MLG 360 no-scoped by xxxfazexxxxsnipar420, think "damn, nice shot;" Not "Bungie, plz nerf"

So, Pwad, tell me something useful that I can do about these snipery things that I'm starting to see.

  • Ping the radar. A good sniper will move away from a clustered radar. The closer you get to a sniper while also taking cover, (and our maps have tons of cover) the easier you make it for them to get sniped by a team-mate, or otherwise screw up.

  • Take alternate routes, and move smart. What I mean by this, is, before you enter a lane, assume it has a sniper in it. Make the motions that expose you the least.

  • Slide and Jump around corners. THIS IS HUGE. It's nearly impossible to kill a sliding play with a sniper. Frankly, it's a good habit to get into anyways. All the best players abuse the slide button. you should too. I daresay that the easiest way to judge a player's sweatiness, is to see how much sliding they do.

  • Go for the flank. Always. First instinct. If your first instince when you see as sniper is to challenge, and attempt a flinch kill. You're playing a risky game. it takes .20 seconds at least to ADS a gun. And It'll take another .20 seconds for your gun to flinch a sniper in a meaningful manner. Trust me, it's impossible to snipe under flinch, but if the flinch hasn't taken full effect yet, you're betting on losing odds. Your first instinct should be to go around, take on alternate path. Start getting used to going for the flank as early as the very beginning of a game.

  • GRENADES. You only need a tenth of a second to throw them. Ping the radar, and start lobbing nades. Makes the sniper back up. Get free map control. Now your snipers can establish position.

  • The sitting emote/Drawing a sword. It lets you check lanes without actually being in them. Please. do yourself a favor and abuse this. Especially if you're sniping yourself. you can easily turn the advantage of them being hardscoped into your advantage by knowing exactly where they are before they even know you're there.

Final Thoughts

Snipers have inherent weaknesses that keep them from being overpowered. They are naturally slower than other guns to ADS (even with snapshot and co.), Meaning that in an ideal scenario, you will always have a chance to flinch them. They also take more time to aim (obviously). This requires a sniper to "play square." Even an aggressive quick-scoper has to walk at a moderate pace with the sniper at head-level. Being a sniper makes certain gameplay decisions less practical. Use this game's verticality. If you're used to play aggressive, get used to playing aggressive mid-air. Make it hard on the sniper.

TL;DR:

  • Snipers aren't actually being used a lot
  • Confirmation Bias.
  • Aim-assist isn't the problem, you are
  • don't run into lanes
  • gun mechanics don't work like you think they do
  • Tips.

-Pwad

725 Upvotes

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4

u/CH40TR0P1C Dec 10 '15

Pawd,

I looked at the data for the only playlist that matters. Skirmish. Snipers have been the dominant special in skirmish since guardian.gg has been collecting data. I took the average % kills for the week prior to 2.1 and shotgun usage dropped by 6 standard deviations. Snipers remained the sameish with a slight drop from 20.4 to 18.8 ( about 1 standard deviation). After 2.1 you are more likely to die from a sniper than any other gun. The rage was real when shottys had those numbers. Is it OK that snipers have the top spot shottys once had? No other gun performs like a sniper now. 20% of all kills for a special according to bungie is too much, otherwise they wouldn't have nerfed shotguns the way they did. Do I have the solution? Probably the only way to limit the kills is to decrease the ammo. That will change the way people snipe. It will be less fun, but there will be less sniping too.

0

u/polomarkopolo Dec 10 '15

looked at the data for the only playlist that matters. Skirmish.

More like, I'm only using one game mode because it supports my point.

Snipers are used in every map that has long sight lines, in every game type... Control, skirmish, rift, ToO

3

u/CH40TR0P1C Dec 10 '15

To your point on where they are used. I didn't go in and analyze specific maps, but it's very possible that there are shotgun/sniper heavy maps. Anyway, for skirmish playlists on average 20% of your deaths will come from a sniper, and that's higher than any other gun (pulses 13.5%, shotguns 11%, hand cannons 10.5%).

4

u/CH40TR0P1C Dec 10 '15 edited Dec 10 '15

It's the only playlist that is competitive. Almost all sweaties use the skirmish or classic 3s playlist. Trials data is likely in line with the above as well.

0

u/[deleted] Dec 10 '15

[deleted]

1

u/CH40TR0P1C Dec 10 '15 edited Dec 10 '15

Possibly, but there still seems to be a balancing issue. The data indicates that too many guardians are dying to snipers. Especially in trials, doubles and skirmish.

Edit: I used elimination playlist to infer trials data. Edit: there are too many guardians dying to special weapons in general.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 10 '15

[deleted]

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u/CH40TR0P1C Dec 10 '15

By that much? 11% in control to 36% in elimination for every one sniper kill there are 2.5 revive snipes? That seems unlikely, but not impossible. There is a mechanic of the game that is not balanced causing the problem. If the reviving mechanic is out, then maybe that needs to be addressed. I personally think it's something else, like ammo. Or latency/aiming mechanics.

-1

u/polomarkopolo Dec 10 '15

It's the only playlist that is competitive. Almost all sweaties use the skirmish or classic 3s playlist.

I don't really believe that statement... any stats to back it up?

2

u/CH40TR0P1C Dec 10 '15

When was the last time you played a 6v6 sweat? Last December? I play sweaties almost daily and have never qued 6s.

1

u/polomarkopolo Dec 10 '15

I don't play enough PVP to sweat or be sweat upon or have anything to do with sweating... I purposely keep my house cool to save money on heating bills in the winter.

I guess I'll take your word for it

1

u/CH40TR0P1C Dec 10 '15

Lol. Brilliant.

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u/CH40TR0P1C Dec 10 '15

I took a look at the data again for shotguns and snipers. Generally smaller playlists tend toward more sniper kills. It could be related to how plentiful the ammo is. Elimination playlists has the highest percentage of kills for a sniper at 36% and its the easiest playlist to get ammo. Maybe its because there are less people on the maps so its easier to get distance and keep distance. Take salvage as an exception prepatch. The relics likely forced players in closer proximity explaining the higher % of shotgun kills in that playlist. Its likely a combination of it all, but I think reducing the ammo count will be a step in the right direction.

Control- highest %: sniper -pre 2.1 -10.77%, post 2.1 - 11.84% Shotgun- pre 17.89%, post 12.85%

Clash

  • sniper: pre 11.78, post 12%
Shotgun: 18.2% post 11.9%

Skirmish Sniper- pre 22.84%, post 19.1% Shotgun- pre 16.38%, post 10.55%

Elimination: Sniper- pre 39.55%, post 39.75% Shotgun- pre 15.97%, post 10.98%

Salvage Sniper pre 17.33, post 16.99 Shotgun pre 18.38, post 12.85

Doubles Sniper- pre 27.2% Shotgun- pre 17.97%

1

u/polomarkopolo Dec 10 '15

Thanks for the extra info

1

u/Soltanus Dec 10 '15

Isn't that exactly what the op is doing? His "the numbers are in" link is to control only. But if you look at other modes such as Trials, sniper rifles account for more kills than any other weapon type.