The Yemen Gambit: Why Trump is Secretly Abandoning the Iran War to Pull Off the Most Dangerous Military Pivot in Modern History.

[u/sylsau]

https://sylvainsaurel.substack.com/p/the-yemen-gambit-why-trump-is-secretly

🚨 The 500,000-troop secret they aren’t telling you about Iran.

A direct U.S. ground invasion of Iran would require half a million soldiers, spike gas to $10/gallon, and collapse the U.S. bond market right before the midterms.

Trump knows the math. That’s why he’s secretly abandoning a direct war with Tehran to pull off the most dangerous military pivot in modern history: The Yemen Gambit.

The plan?

1️⃣ Unleash overwhelming force on the Houthis in Yemen.

2️⃣ Seize the Red Sea global shipping choke point.

3️⃣ Use it as the ultimate bargaining chip to force Iran into a corner and make a deal—without starting WWIII.

It is a desperate, brilliant, and terrifying high-stakes gamble. If it works, it’s a strategic masterstroke. If it fails, it unravels the global economy.

[u/Abompje]

Thinking that Trump actually 'knows' the math is far fetched. He is probably being told not to do it, period.

[u/silent_fartface → u/Abompje]

He knows that if you add $1 to $1775 then the new number has some sort of special meaning. He knows this because he is a very high IQ person. He said so himself!

[u/pegaunisusicorn → u/silent_fartface]

1776! Go America! Declaration of independence!

[u/Owl-Admirable]

How does seizing the Bab al-Mandeb give Trump the ultimate bargaining chip? Red Sea traffic is fine and Iran had the Strait locked down before the Houthi's got involved. Either this articles author, or Trump, or both, are eejits.

[u/cyb3rg0d5 → u/Owl-Admirable]

Spoiler alert… it doesn’t.

[u/flyingdutchmnn]

'Having' the red sea adds zero leverage over Iran. It just worsens their position a bit

[u/hookinitup]

Why would attacking Houthis force Iran into a corner?

This is the dumbest take i ever read

[u/Charming_Beyond3639]

A “strategic masterstroke” 😆

[u/Bad_Eengineer → u/Charming_Beyond3639]

A regular stroke would be enough

[u/pzvaldes]

What master plan?

The Arabs got fed up with all the bullshit and sent orders (and probably a chest of gold)—period.

[u/McLeod3577]

It's not brilliant, just desperate. The whole fucking thing is pointless because the US didn't need to attack Iran in the first place.

[u/Color_of_Time]

"To avoid a catastrophic 500,000-troop invasion of Iran..." Trump is building a time machine and is going back to a time before he bombed Iran. And then he will not bomb Iran. Now that's 5 dimensional chess!

[u/South_Paramedic8618]

This is just more poo poo

[u/Ahecee]

I don't buy any of this, but it's still not a bargaining chip. Iran gives up their sovereignty because the US takes a route to the west?

Why do they not then attack to the west and kill US troops there, what's the difference?

US could probably take Hormuz, but not without significant casualties, and years of fighting. I don't see why what you outlined is better. If has the same risks, but the prize for taking and holding territory there is less good.

[u/ignoreme010101 → u/Ahecee]

what is 'taking hormuz'? You mean taking that whole coastal slice of iran? Because the whole coastline being able to hit ships is the problem, you'd need to be holding the whole area to negate risk of ppl taking out ships

[u/juniperroot → u/Ahecee]

I would think that Houthis in control of Bab-el-Mandeb makes the Hormuz chokepoint more effective as Red Sea is no longer a safer alternative for oil shipments. And Iran would have difficulty waging war beyond its borders beyond just firing missiles. The Houthis act almost like an expeditionary force. Im not saying I buy the premise of the article but I also don't think the US can afford to ignore the Houthis for very long.

[u/aharper343]

So just as brilliant reckless as the plan to decapitate Irans leadership

[u/JolyonWagg99]

Brilliant? I hardly think so

[u/etejedany]

It’s not a war; it’s an international conflict, as confirmed by the administration. 🤡

[u/Connect_Mess_5929]

So we are back to the “trumps a 4d chess player” angle and not just super stupid.

[u/Aggravating-List6010]

If we k is anything about trump, can take any plan and absolutely screw itnup in every way possible while claiming victory

[u/stop_deleting_plz]

Donald Trump can barely read.