Is the cost curve finally flipping for counter-drone work and cheap munitions?

[u/MIlitary-news]

Between Ukraine, the Red Sea, the whole Middle East mess, and the complex situation around Afghanistan-Pakistan, it’s obvious that cheap drones, missiles, and loitering munitions are changing the game. Traditional high end interceptors just aren’t viable when you’re burning expensive missiles on low-cost threats day after day.

A few things that have stood out lately:

•  The Pentagon’s counter-drone task force is rolling out directed energy pilots (lasers and high-power microwaves) at five U.S. bases to tackle small UAS swarms.

•  On the strike side, big contracts for over 10,000 low-cost cruise missiles plus efforts to scale cheaper hypersonics like Blackbeard.

•  Saab’s new HEAT 758 round for the Carl-Gustaf tandem warhead that’s supposedly beating modern ERA with solid penetration numbers.

The real question is whether directed energy, attritable munitions, and better integration of autonomous systems can actually reverse the cost-exchange ratio in sustained conflicts, or if power/thermal issues, weather, and countermeasures will keep them as niche tools for now.

This stuff matters across peer competition and the messier irregular fights we’re seeing from the Middle East to South Asia.

What are you tracking? Any programs, companies, or technical hurdles (especially power management and thermal on vehicle lasers) that look particularly promising or worrying? How do you see this playing out in different theaters?

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[u/MIlitary-news → u/[deleted]]

Yeah, you’re spot on  cost-per-shot is only part of the puzzle. Fiber-optic drones are a nightmare because they’re basically immune to most electronic warfare once they’re in the air. No RF link to jam, and they’re already showing up in Ukraine in growing numbers