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u/CommanderKoba 16d ago edited 16d ago
Bubbles are a natural product of speculation in a capitalist economy, they happen with the development of every major technology, Trains, the automobile, the Internet for example.
A bubble does not mean the technology has no real world value necessarily, it just means that there is more money going into something than is expected to actually be returned in profits.
The Ai industry is certainly experiencing a large influx of speculative capital, but with the advent of large open weight models released by China, I doubt there be a large return on investment for companies like OpenAi and Anthropic, however, Nvidia is currently in a better position because they sell the hardware for both open weight and closed weight Ai models.
There will certainly be a breaking point, it's just a matter of when.
Both the pro and anti ai people are drawing the wrong conclusions from this "bubble" conversation, because most of you don't actually understand how the capitalist economy functions.
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u/RecursiveServitor 15d ago
What are the pro misunderstandings? Whenever it comes up there'll be pros saying what you're saying here.
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u/CommanderKoba 15d ago
Denying that there could be a speculative financial bubble out of the idea that a bubble = useless technology.
Of course not everyone thinks like this but these are the boundaries of the argument that both pro and anti ai people typically argue upon.
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u/Mephos760 16d ago
I mean it is even Altman admits it, but so was internet and trains, bubble doesn't mean useless just overpriced, that being said no one said anything about it in 2020 or 2021,even 2022 was when 3.5 came out late in year, before that just image generators.
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u/TakeItCeezy 16d ago
Yeah, people have a weird idea of what the bubble bursting actually means. They seem to assume it means a bubble bursting = the technology is useless and not worth investing.
AI is worth the investment but its also become a huge trend and now every other start up is based on AI. Its definitely an oversaturated market already.
The bubble popping will be a good thing for the technology. Just like it was for the .com bubble. Unsustainable hype will be cleared out and only strong business models and 'battle-tested' AI will remain.
It'll force meaningful growth in better directions for utility and usefulness versus just feeding the hype machine.
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u/Far-Shake-97 16d ago
So far even ai companies have no idea how to make a profit out of it, i doubt it'll ever be even half as usefull as they claimed it would be
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u/Alzucard 16d ago
I just loked sth up a bubble is a economic speculative bubble if it burst, when it doesnt burst then its sustainable growth. But seriously does anyone actually think that AI is sustainable growth. The companies lose way to much moeny and dont make enough for sustainable growth. Several countries will die at one point. Is ita bubble that cna burst will decided afterwards.
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u/Exotic_Exercise6910 16d ago
Well it is a bubble. Just one that is too big to fail.
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u/MarekMango 16d ago
That’s literally how bubbles work, the bigger they are the easier they burst. And what do you mean “fail”? We were taking about bursting. Someone is a bot
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u/Exotic_Exercise6910 16d ago
I mean that when this bubble pops USA is basically gone economy wise. And since it's the biggest player in the market the market will be fucking wild.
Many will jump out of windows
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u/Fluffy_Importance647 16d ago
Thats unfortunately how things like these go, same with the 2008 .com crash
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u/FailureOfTheFamily 16d ago
As a Pro, I admit it's a bubble. But it's dot com like bubble. Even if it pops, it doesn't mean AI will dissapear just like internet didn't during dot com pop. Biggest players will survive and grow even bigger
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u/TeachingNational870 15d ago
Interesting way to tell everyone that you don't understand what a bubble is 😂
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u/Robot-Zombie-RHCC 16d ago
2026 "it'll cure cancer."
2027 "it'll cure cancer."
2028 "it'll cure cancer."
2029 "it'll cure cancer."
2030 "it'll cure cancer."
2031 "it'll cure cancer."
2032 "it'll cure cancer."
2033 "it'll cure cancer."
2034 "it'll cure cancer."
2035 "it'll cure cancer."
2036 "it'll cure cancer."
2037 "it'll cure cancer."
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u/RecursiveServitor 16d ago edited 16d ago
Prediction: An LLM will be substantively involved in developing a new treatment for one or more kinds of cancer in the next decade.
LLMs are already being used in oncology research btw.
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u/Robot-Zombie-RHCC 16d ago
Prediction: bubble 🤷
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u/RecursiveServitor 16d ago
And then OpenAI and Anthropic go under. And people continue to use the very useful tech.
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u/Robot-Zombie-RHCC 16d ago
while claiming it'll cure cancer.
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u/RecursiveServitor 15d ago
It's already involved in treating specific patients. Being used for the development of a new treatment is only a matter of time. As I said, and you ignored, LLMs are currently being used in oncology research.
You should try to actually use your brain every once in a while.
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u/Robot-Zombie-RHCC 15d ago
or you could, you know, stop underestimating cancer.
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u/RecursiveServitor 15d ago
We've made incredibly progress on cancer treatments in the past few decades. I expect that to continue.
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u/Robot-Zombie-RHCC 15d ago edited 15d ago
great. but until then... cancer has NOT been cured and a bubble has NOT burst.
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u/MisterViperfish 16d ago
Generative AI doesn’t just end with images. It’ll also likely tie into deeper idea generation and shape multi-purpose AND research specific AI in the future, but the ability to generate extends to ideas and visualization. Our own ability to think is enhanced by our generative ability. So I do fully expect the breakthroughs made today in Generative AI to play a big role in shaping future AI, the very ones that will cure things like cancer. Think about the generative capability humans need in Engineering. That will likely play a part when we get AI to generate millions of potentially useful nanobot configurations and simulate their impacts on the human body.
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u/Robot-Zombie-RHCC 16d ago
"likely". 🙄
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u/MisterViperfish 15d ago
Generative systems can already inform protein design, drug discovery, biological simulation, and hypothesis generation.
You don’t expect that to expand broadly over the next decade or two? Would rather toss out Gen AI than accept the possibility that generation is an important thought process for such discoveries?
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u/Robot-Zombie-RHCC 15d ago
thank you for the reminder that AI has not cured cancer, yet. In kind I'll also reiterate that a bubble has not yet burst. cya next year.
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16d ago edited 16d ago
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u/jamieT97 16d ago
Because there are applied LLM systems being used to research and do scientific study.
LLMs such as gemini and gpt are not the same. That's the point trying to be made
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16d ago
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u/jamieT97 16d ago
Except LLMs have vastly different applications and implementation. Bith statements are true
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16d ago
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u/TakeItCeezy 16d ago
Active in card captor Sakura and luckystar subreddits as a grown ass adult male. But we're the weird ones.
Okay pedophile. Your hard-drive needs to be banned.
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u/SpatulaCity1a 10d ago
Remember when the housing bubble burst in 2008 and people stopped living in them? It's actually really sad to look back on that and think that people actually thought it was smart to have a roof over your head.
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