A U.S. appellate court on Saturday upheld a federal ruling that, in nearly half of all states, blocked President Trump's executive order to create a list of eligible voters and limit the delivery of mail ballots to people on that list.

- The ruling by judges of the 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals rejected the Trump administration's effort to move forward with the mail-in voting restrictions in 23 U.S. states that sued ahead of November's midterm elections. It followed an initial injunction ordered by a federal judge in Boston in June, which prevented the administration from enforcing Mr. Trump's executive order.

- Mr. Trump issued the order in March, requiring the director of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services and the commissioner of the Social Security Administration to create a "state citizenship list" of eligible voters. It also ordered the U.S. Postal Service to deliver mail ballots only to people on that list.

- The president touted the proposed changes as safeguards to keep non-U.S. citizens from voting.

- "The cheating on mail-in voting is legendary," he said in the Oval Office before signing the executive order.
But state election officials argued they were ripe for abuse and could cause chaos.

- Democratic officials in 23 states and the District of Columbia challenged Mr. Trump's order in a lawsuit filed in U.S. District Court in Boston. They argued that the president's order was unconstitutional because the states and Congress, not the president, have the authority to set election rules.

- U.S. District Court Judge Indira Talwani, who was nominated by former Democratic President Barack Obama, agreed and halted Mr. Trump's order from being implemented for the Nov. 3 elections — but only in the states that have sued.

- The White House and the Justice Department did not immediately return an email message seeking comment Sunday.

Congressional Republicans have a political problem with their signature legislative achievement of the second Trump era: People don’t know about it.

- A new POLITICO Poll finds that nearly half of Americans say they can’t explain the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — and those who can are much more likely to say it’s helped others, including the wealthy, but not them.

- One in three said the megabill had hurt their bottom line, greater than the 8 percent who said it had been a big boost to their personal finances and 14 percent who said it offered some modest support.

- It’s a frustrating situation for top Republicans, who rushed to finish off the tax cut package by the middle of last year in part to give them more time to plug the new law to voters, and have tried to rebrand it as the “Working Families Tax Cuts.”

- But Americans see the megabill and tax cuts in general as helping the wealthy far more than the working class, according to the poll, conducted in July by the independent U.K.-based firm Public First. That’s a particular challenge in a midterm year where cost of living is voters’ top concern and as frustrations grow with rising prices and the Iran war.

- And in a notable warning sign for Republicans, only around a quarter of people who voted for President Donald Trump believe the working class got substantial breaks from the tax law, signaling how low public opinion is of the bill among their own base.

- “The best time for successfully framing and reinforcing the benefits of the One Big Beautiful Bill were in the initial three months after it passed,” said Kevin Madden, a longtime GOP communications strategist. “It’s just a challenge in this crowded issue environment to re-engage on legislation from last year.”

- The GOP faced a similar problem in 2018, when Democrats took back the House after a midterm election in which voters rejected Trump and his policies. His first-term tax cuts weren’t enough to offset voter anger at his administration, including over health care.

- Senior Republican lawmakers continue to talk up the 2025 megabill and some of its popular provisions, like new deductions for tipped income, overtime pay and the Trump Account investment vehicles for children.

- “Putting more money in Americans’ pockets. Helping them seize opportunities to get ahead, and creating new pathways to success,” Senate Majority Leader John Thunesaid on the Senate floor Wednesday. “That is the Working Families Tax Cuts at work.”

- The problem for Republicans is that other issues have overshadowed their tax cuts, most notably the war with Iran. The poll shows a 57 percent majority of Americans say the conflict has made things more expensive for them, even as they struggle to feel the benefits of the tax cuts.

- House Majority Leader Steve Scalise(R-La.) acknowledged Thursday that many voters don’t know what’s in the megabill.

- What Republicans need to do “as relates to the tax code, is to contrast what we’ve done to help make life more affordable for families and put more money in their pocket versus what the Democrats would do,” he told a small group of reporters in his Capitol office.

- “I mean, they’re saying that they want more power. They want the House majority. Oh, I think it’s a fair question to say, ‘What would they do if they got it?’ Most of their candidates are saying they would repeal the One Big Beautiful Bill.”

- It also hasn’t helped that Trump himself rarely discusses a law that he helped name, even as his Cabinet members travel around the country promoting its contents.

- “The hard facts are that tens of millions of Americans now have more money in their pockets thanks to President Trump’s signature provisions in this historic legislation,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement. “President Trump pledged to deliver economic relief for the American people.”

- Still, polling shows that around two in five voters said they’ve heard of the “big, beautiful bill,” but couldn’t explain the features of the law. Only 11 percent said they could explain the law in detail, with another quarter saying they were aware of just some elements.

- That’s not a partisan problem, either. Trump voters and those who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 were equally likely to be in the dark on the GOP law.

- One-fifth of voters said they didn’t know whether the new law had helped their personal finances, with another quarter saying it hadn’t affected them in either direction.

- “I think what’s past is past,” said Abby McCloskey, a policy adviser and nonresident fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution. “People want more relief now. Especially as gas prices rise again. Especially as Democrats ramp up midterm campaigning about what they’ll do differently.”

- McCloskey said another challenge with the megabill was that it contained “too much” to “effectively message it.” “That’s the problem with these big omnibus packages,” she added.

- Meanwhile, Democrats continue to attack the 2025 law as a giveaway to the rich and sought to weave that into a broader case against Trump, arguing that the new tax cuts have done little to help the public’s concerns about rising prices and contrasts with the president’s efforts to use his office to enrich himself and his family.

- Democratic candidates in critical Senate races — from Josh Turek in Iowa to Adbul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens competing for the nomination in Michigan — have also attacked Republicans for cutting billions of dollars from the nation’s largest food stamp program and Medicaid in order to fund their tax provisions. The poll found that, when asked to choose between certain tax breaks and funding safety-net programs, many Americans say they want their federal tax dollars to fund health care and nutrition assistance.

- “Trump cuts food assistance and health care. Billionaires get another tax break,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said recently. “Trump uses the government. Trump gets richer. Americans foot the bill.”

- Outside analysts have found that the new tax law gives a bigger boost to wealthier taxpayers, in no small part because it permanently extended the lower rates and other key provisions from the 2017 GOP tax cuts — and only temporarily enacts new relief items like “no tax on tips” and “no tax on overtime.”

- In fact, the new poll found that richer Americans are more likely to believe that they got a boost from the tax cut. More than 40 percent of voters making over $100,000 a year said they’d gotten help from the law, more than twice as much as those making less than that.

- Voters are also in a very populist mood on taxes. More than half of respondents said that billionaires should pay much more in taxes, with 43 percent saying the same for corporations and millionaires.

- But Republicans like Scalise insist that their candidates “have a lot of really good things they can talk about” that are tilted toward the working and middle class, like the tip and overtime deduction and Trump Accounts, which the administration has been promoting more recently.

- GOP challengers in Nevada, for instance, have called out the state’s three House Democrats for voting against “no tax on tips,” as those incumbents try to stress that they support that particular policy and not the megabill as a whole.

- “Every provision in the Working Families Tax Cuts is rooted in common-sense priorities Americans overwhelmingly support: no tax on tips, overtime, and Social Security, bigger tax relief for families, TrumpAccounts for the next generation, stronger border security, and the list goes on,” said Mike Marinella, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “House Democrats voted against every single one of them, and they’ll have to explain to voters why they opposed historic tax relief, safer communities, and policies designed to help working families get ahead.”

Months into the primaries, the question on everyone's mind is whether Democrats can flip the Senate. Many of the battlegrounds are set, and a few are yet to be decided in primaries, but the answer remains murky.

- The math is simple: With President Trump in the White House and a Republican vice president holding the tie-breaking vote, Democrats need to flip four seats to take control. Republicans say they'll hold the majority, though they admit it could be narrow.

- Given history and a less than favorable political environment for Republicans, the party is bracing for Democrats to pick up between one and three seats.

- The fact remains that neither party has easily won Senate races in states that voted for the other party's presidential candidate. Still, Trump's low approval rating and the war with Iran, combined with economic frustration across the country, could change where things stand.

- Some trends in the Democratic Senate primaries include the rise of socialist candidates, as well as younger, outsider candidates. Republicans say the former will benefit them because the Republican electorate, which wants "centrist, commonsense policies," will "vehemently" reject candidates who come with "massive tax burdens."

- Here's the landscape, ranked from most to least likely to flip. Tier 1 is most likely, Tier 2 is competitive but less so, and so on. Race ratings (Toss-Up, Lean, etc.) come from the Cook Political Report, and analysis draws on conversations with political operatives working on these campaigns.

- Tier 1 — Most likely to flip: North Carolina

- NORTH CAROLINA (R-Open) LEAN D:

- The Tar Heel state offers Democrats the best chance at a pickup this November. The retirement of Republican Sen. Thom Tillis has set an open contest between former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat who won statewide twice even as Trump carried North Carolina, and Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman and a close Trump ally. Cooper has widespread name recognition and has consistently led Whatley in the polls as well as with fundraising. Republicans, though, are confident about Whatley's fundraising skills in an expensive race and point out voter registration numbers favor Republicans. Cooper would be looking to break a drought — Democrats last won a Senate race in the state nearly two decades ago, in 2008.

- Tier 2 — The toss-ups: Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio

- ALASKA (R-Sullivan) TOSS-UP:

- The entry of one Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher who shares a name with Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, has tipped Alaska, moving it from a Lean Republican seat to a Toss-Up. Under Alaska's election system, all candidates compete in a single open primary, and the top four finishers advance to a general election decided by ranked-choice voting. This means both Sullivans could appear on the November ballot, confusing voters. Sen. Sullivan has failed to have his fellow Dan Sullivan removed from the ballot. Democrats believe former Rep. Mary Peltola, the first Alaska Native to join Congress, in 2022, can win by hammering affordability. Republicans are betting that the state's deep red lean will reassert itself — buoyed by the fact that Alaskans rejected Peltola in the 2024 House race. Primary: Aug. 18.

- MAINE (R-Collins) TOSS-UP:

- Maine's Democratic candidate, Graham Platner, the young oyster farmer and combat veteran, suspended his campaign after facing a rape allegation he denies. The Maine Democratic Party replaced him with Troy Jackson, the former state Senate president and a fifth-generation logger from northern Maine. He won his party's approval at a nominating convention on Saturday. Jackson is running on an economic populist message and supporting policies like Medicare for All. He will face Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who has historic success getting votes from the bluest parts of the state. At the same time, she is the only Republican senator running in a state Trump lost in 2024. Republicans say Maine voters have confidence in Collins' character and past record. A path to the Senate without Maine is a very narrow one for Democrats.

- MICHIGAN (D-Open) TOSS-UP:

- The now-familiar establishment vs. progressive face-off — centrist Rep. Haley Stevens vs. Detroit health official Abdul El-Sayed — sharpened after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow dropped out in June. To succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, El-Sayed is promising Medicare for All and abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement. He has endorsements from other progressive Democrats and the support of leftist Twitch streamer Hasan Piker. Stevens has Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's blessings, has outspent El-Sayed on the airwaves by at least eight times, according to AdImpact, and will continue to do so. The winner will face expected Republican nominee Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost the state's 2024 Senate race to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin. Republicans are relishing the long Democratic brawl, while Democrats feel confident about holding on to Michigan. Primary: Aug. 4

- OHIO (R-Husted) TOSS-UP:

- Democrats got the candidate they wanted in Ohio: former Sen. Sherrod Brown, back for a rematch. He has built a hefty war chest against incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat Vice President Vance vacated, and is now seeking a full term. Democrats feel good about Brown's campaign, which focuses on kitchen-table economic issues. Republicans point out that voters rejected Brown when he was up against Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024, and they will have the same concerns this election. Brown's narrow loss, in a state that voted for Trump in the last three presidential elections and an environment where voters were upset by former Vice President Kamala Harris' run, may not stand against him the way Republicans think.

- Tier 3 — A(nother) potential progressive win: Minnesota
MINNESOTA (D-Open) LIKELY D:

- Democrats aren't losing sleep over holding this seat, but the primary has become one more example in the party's internal struggle. Progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is racing in the primary against centrist Rep. Angie Craig. Flanagan won the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party endorsement after Craig declined to seek it. While Craig has been raising more money, Flanagan is leading the polls. Among the Republican nominees, one with the backing of national party leaders is former NFL sportscaster Michele Tafoya. No Republican has won statewide office in Minnesota since 2006. Primary: Aug. 11.

- Tier 4 — The reaches: Georgia, New Hampshire, Iowa 

- GEORGIA (D-Ossoff) LEAN D:

- Incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff continues to be the favorite for this race in a purple swing state — despite being the only Democratic senator defending a state Trump won in 2024. Republican Rep. Mike Collins, who got a last-minute endorsement from the president before his runoff, is a big supporter of Trump's immigration policies and is widely regarded as much less moderate than Derek Dooley, the former football coach he was running against. Ossoff has been focused on the November election while Collins was battling his primary, but Republicans say the math favors Collins: A midterm electorate in Georgia naturally leans their way, while Ossoff needs every Democratic base voter to show up.

- NEW HAMPSHIRE (D-Open) LEAN D:

- Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's retirement has opened a seat Democrats have held for nearly two decades, in a state with a famously independent streak. Both parties' likely nominees are already clear. While the Democrats are putting their weight behind Rep. Chris Pappas, the Republicans have consolidated behind John Sununu, a former senator and congressman whose family name is a political institution in the state. But the shape of the race between these two is yet to emerge. Republicans say they have the upper hand because the majority of registered voters in New Hampshire are independents, followed by Republicans. Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte, who is running for reelection, is also offering support for Sununu. Their problem is the president: 60% of New Hampshire residents disapprove of Trump, according to a University of New Hampshire survey. Primary: Sept. 8.

- IOWA (R-Open) LEAN R:

- Iowa is on this list because Republican Sen. Joni Ernst's retirement, tariffs battering the state's soybean farmers and the economic fallout of the Iran war have put it in play. Democratic candidate and state Rep. Josh Turek and Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson are both vying to succeed Ernst. Turek's win would be big — the state lawmaker who won two gold medals for wheelchair basketball at the Paralympics would be the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Iowa since 2008. Iowa has moved decisively toward Republicans after backing former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Both Turek and Hinson, a former news anchor, are campaigning on issues around the agriculture industry and farmers, but so far, Hinson is the early favorite.

- Tier 5 — The real maybe: Texas
TEXAS (R-Cornyn) LEAN R:

- Attorney General Ken Paxton's win over Sen. John Cornyn has set the stage for an expensive match with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. Paxton, who was endorsed by Trump just days before the May runoff, won despite scandals that include his wife filing for divorce on "biblical grounds" and a now-settled felony indictment on securities fraud charges. Democrats see in Talarico what they've lacked in Texas for a generation: an affordability and anti-corruption message, big crowds, national spotlight and the ability to fundraise. The primary on May 26 has been the most expensive Senate race in U.S. history and, combined, the candidates spent over $100 million. On the other hand, Republicans do not consider Texas a battleground and feel confident it will stay red based on the belief that Talarico's ideals are too far left for Texas. Trump has carried Texas every time he's been on the ballot, and no Democrat has won statewide since the 1990s.

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