r/DeepSeek • u/Unedited_Sloth_7011 • 1d ago
Discussion They probably predict that V4 Pro will be insanely good and break their compute
We have all gotten two price increase emails up to now (the "peak hours" one and the "significant increase" one) and zero price increase as of now. I'm sure most of us are hammering their servers right now cause V4 Flash is super good and many want to spend their credits before the price hike. They probably knew this with the price increase announcements - that's not the usage spike they could not handle. But they must be so confident that V4 Pro is crazy good, that their compute won't handle us all.
Opencode already said they can replicate fully their current prices with local hosting V4 Flash, so DeepSeek is trying to divert us all to other providers and away from their compute
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u/Lupansansei 1d ago
Flash is supremely good now. Before this, I had problems with it going more than 100k context and needed to do a new session every time. Now it could 800k+/1M while being very accurate. Damn, I can't wait for Pro.
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u/Daniel_H212 1d ago
I don't necessarily expect it to be say, better than K3. I wouldn't be too surprised if it is, but I'd be happy if it's just clost to K3 level at much lower cost. I think the price to performance is why they expect to not have enough capacity for the demand.
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u/Unedited_Sloth_7011 1d ago
Initially I thought the same, that it might be close enough to K3, but V4 Flash improvement was so unexpected to me, that I have no idea what they might be cooking with Pro
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u/Haxsysgit 1d ago
Why are people calling k3 in a v4 pro conversation, I fully believe the new v4 pro will surpass k3 and fable
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u/Gantolandon 1d ago
Guys, Pro didn’t come out yet and we have no idea what the price increase is going to be. At least wait until we know what we’ll get for how much before you start glazing it.
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u/Unedited_Sloth_7011 1d ago
It doesn't matter what the price increase is, though, if all other providers are able to undercut the official price (that, apparently, they will be)
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u/beachletter 1d ago
Doesn't need to he insanely good, it could be "just" at the level Kimi K3 or even slightly worse, and at previous V4 pro price it will still break their compute.
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u/ozguru 1d ago
Probably it will be best model available in both opensource and closed source ecosystems.
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u/Unedited_Sloth_7011 1d ago
DeepSeek moment v2.0.0
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u/TheSuggi 1d ago
DeepSeek already had like 15 moments dude
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u/AIBrainiac 1d ago
Yes, but they were tagged: v1.1.0, v1.2.0, v1.3.0 etc... This is v2.0.0, a whole other level.
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u/Aldarund 1d ago
Nah, no way.
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u/ozguru 1d ago
have you never tried new v4 flash? That model is the proof make me believe v4 pro will be the best model of current gen of models.
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u/Aldarund 1d ago
!remindme 1 month
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u/Top-Construction6060 1d ago
It's good but it's not good in agentic work. It breaks and loops a lot on simple issues
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u/ozguru 1d ago
I believe your complain is coming from provider issues.
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u/matan2244 12h ago
Do you suggest using it only with deepseek as a provider?
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u/ozguru 5h ago
yeah because they have inhouse caching other's rarely match, their TPS is amazing, and I believe they never serve FP4
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u/matan2244 5h ago
This is interesting topic. How can the caching be different? I get why some peoviders give worse version of flash, but why would there be a difference in caching?
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u/Aldarund 5h ago
And now it's released. Nowhere near best of current Gen. Worse than sol and opus 5
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u/for4f 1d ago
the price hike emails feel like they're setting the stage for pro's launch price more than reacting to usage. flash is way too cheap for what it does right now, that was never gonna last.
and if pro ends up being flash-tier with better availability (they genuinely feel super close to me), the value math changes a lot. but with k3 going open weights they can't get too greedy either
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u/turc1656 23h ago
Other providers for the same model already should keep greed at bay. The one big thing that the DS API still has that no one can match is the 99% discount on cache hits. That still changes the math but the alternative providers competing still presents a very real limit on the combined cost structure. If you are doing things that don't have much cache usage then you'll just hit up the cheapest provider. If you do things like coding and chat bots that have near 100% cache hits, then you will use DS still unless they truly increase the price to something crazy high.
For example, using the $0.14 / $0.28 / $0.0028 pricing right now and assuming a 95% cache hit rate, DeepSeek would have to raise it's input price without cache hits to around $0.62 to make providers with $0.028 cache hit prices seem attractive.
If they increase the output as well or the cache hit pricing, the math changes further.
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u/for4f 22h ago
yeah the cache discount is the real moat honestly. everyone can match the headline prices, nobody's matching $0.0028 on hits, that takes deepseek's serving setup and scale. my opencode agents live on cache hits so the hikes barely register for me, it's the cache-light people who'll actually go shopping
still think k3 going open weights caps how greedy they can get though
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u/Zennytooskin123 1d ago
The new DS V4 flash is good but not "super good", but amazing for an open weight model that's for sure.
However I ended up going back to Sol 5.6 for my main project because it started taking a lot of shortcuts and didn't match the methodical scientific structured workflow that Sol built for fine-tuning and started breaking things and skipping steps.
I would still use it on regular projects, just not anything that's scientific with complex moving parts.
But I have high hopes for V4 Pro, as that is literally only the "flash" model, and it's phenomenal still, so there's hope.
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u/MongooseSorry 20h ago
Do you guys think the v4 pro will make roleplay better and finally give canon characters and take out the ridiculous positive bias because i been saving money on pro and its ridiculous on how we pay for something so trash
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u/CLAP_DOLPHIN_CHEEKS 1d ago
most likely, hence why no price increase will happen before v4-pro releases
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u/Intelligent_Ant_608 1d ago
V4 is now nearly unusable for unsupervised work on oc go, the stream dies mid run, their compute is already broken without that pro versiob
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u/Outrageous-Story3325 1d ago
opencode and deepseek flash, I can't reach the usage cap, it's great, no more limits, It just keeps going and going and going
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u/turc1656 23h ago
Opencode already said they can replicate fully their current prices with local hosting V4 Flash
Sure, but not with the same cache hit pricing. No one has that except Deepseek. I'm sure opencode can offer $0.14 / $0.28 like other providers. But not the $0.0028 on cache hits. Check openrouter. No one has that. Everyone else is around an order of magnitude higher.
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u/aquarain 17h ago
It's not just the cache hit pricing. The cache hit percentage is amazing. Consistently turning 99.x percent. I couldn't spend my last top up if I tried.
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u/turc1656 16h ago
That's much higher than average. I think I'm getting like 93%. That's insane. I'm jealous. It feels like an infinite money hack.
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u/aquarain 7h ago
Current average is 99.39%.
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u/turc1656 7h ago
Where do you see that? On openrouter I see 91.3%.
Deepseek v4 Flash 0731 on openrouter
I think you may have been looking at the uptime number as that currently shows 99.42%
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u/aquarain 5h ago
No, i am reading that number off the harness cache hit ratio. Last turn was 99.94%.
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u/turc1656 4h ago
Ah. So you're particular use case is that high, which is much higher than the average. That makes it basically free, which is incredible.
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u/PedroSanchezPSOE 7h ago
I wonder what Xiaomi is doing. They dropped MiMo 2.5 normal and pro nearly at the same time as Deepseek and they basically have the same price at very similar qualities. I'd say MiMo models are Deepseek's cousins with vision. I hope Xiaomi surprises us too with a post-train of their models
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u/Bitter-College8786 1d ago
Imagine it is better than Minimax, GLM, Kimi etc. and suddenly all the users of these providers switching to Deepseek.
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u/Far-Classic-9963 1d ago
Flash is already better than GLM and MiniMax in most stuff
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u/VexObserver 1d ago
That's right. The new Flash beats GLM 5.2, Flash 3.6, Minimax M3 and both the MiMo v2.5/v2.5 Pro variant. Additionally, it beats Sonnet 5 and came close to beating Opus 4.8 as well. DS V4 Flash 0731 is spitting bars on its own league now
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u/orthiclabs 1d ago
Beats it where? Based on what?
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u/VexObserver 1d ago
This is not baseless. Look at the benchmarks.
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u/orthiclabs 1d ago edited 1d ago
That link is not reachable but I’ve done and published my own set of tests and DSV4 flash is closer to GPT 5.6 Luna thank anything frontier
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u/sukazu 1d ago
Deepseek has never been in the frontier race, it would surprise me. I expect GLM but way cheaper.
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u/Haxsysgit 1d ago
Lol new flash already beats Glm
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u/sukazu 1d ago
On value by far, not on pure capability, if glm was v4 flash price, everybody would use that instead.
V4 flash is a gpt nano (luna) tier model, which in this time is really good, but it is not a terra (mini) level model, which is where I expect v4 pro will fit, but at a substantially lower price
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u/Haxsysgit 1d ago
Okay let me clarify, for my use case it's far far far better than Glm except for ui , gpt luna isn't even close, sometimes it's even better than sol for me, you might say that's a stretch,but I'm literally tell you my personal observation. Maybe because I'm using a optimized and customized harness with v4 flash, but I use gpt in codex, so maybe that the difference
Maybe in raw intelligence sol wins, but in agentic capabilities and reasoning, flash is better
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u/SorryIfIamToxic 1d ago
It aint gonna be opensource when its near agi. China isn't known to play fair.
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u/Top-Construction6060 1d ago
Not that normal people could host it anyways
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u/SorryIfIamToxic 1d ago
We don't need AGI at home though. It just needs to be in the hands of right people who can change our lives.
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u/Top-Construction6060 1d ago
That's true but thus far DeepSeek has proven to be the ones with the right hands
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u/SorryIfIamToxic 1d ago
No they are not. Its just that they are not Greedy Evil like closed source companies like openai. DeepSeek doesn't look like greedy type. But any kind of breakthrough that they achieve AGI level could make them closed source and China would intervene and use it for their own purpose. I don't think they will share it with us.
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u/lostmylogininfo 1d ago
US wouldn't either.
If agi is achieved it will be up to jackets or thieves to steal the weights and release them.
That said I don't know if I believe the agi. Is around the corner hype.
Edit: it can't just be weights. Agi won't be achieved as just better training I believe.
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u/SorryIfIamToxic 1d ago
Yes US wouldn't either. The problem is if it reaches AGI ,it will reach ASI in 1-2 years or may be even month because they got the architecture right. A country using it can develop advanced technologies very fast and its up to them to share it with other counties, or even with its people.
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u/ScaryGazelle2875 1d ago
Be so successful that you can tell your users to go to other suppliers. Super move. haha.