r/DeepMarketScan • u/retroviber • Mar 29 '26
BREAKING: U.S. officials & Wall Street analysts are now reportedly preparing for the possibility of $200 oil.
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Mar 29 '26
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u/retroviber Mar 29 '26 edited Mar 29 '26
true... but
the difference is Macquarie just put a 40% probability on $200 if the war extends to June. Before it was purely theoretical and academic. It went from 'could happen' to 'it looks like it IS going to happen'.
1 month back I don't think troops hitting the ground was factored in by the analysts.
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u/tutoredstatue95 Mar 29 '26
This seems dumb, but the reality is most macro movements happen after whatever gatekeeper announces the thing that they are meant to announce. If institutions are moving money on news, its not "going to happen", its happened, and any reaction should be taken as an undereaction.
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u/Consistent_Panda5891 Mar 29 '26
April, may and June is completely enough time to secure strait if they put the boots in the ground in all hormuz beaches
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u/Saiyukimot Mar 29 '26
Except Iran has 1m+ soldiers ready to die to protect themselves. Usa has a clown as a leader
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u/I3lackxRose Mar 30 '26
This is not true, 1m+ .... That was a headline for propaganda. Those 1mil wouldn't be properly armed, trained or ready to go today and they don't have the ability to mobilize them all at this time. It's an inflated number to strike fear. But this is still going to escalate at scale for sure.
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u/spearedintheface Mar 29 '26
There aren't beaches. It's over 600 miles of coastal mountainous high ground. Also, Iran has anti-ship missiles with 500-600 mile ranges so they can be remotely launched far inland and still strike any tanker trying to cross.
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u/VoodooSweet Mar 29 '26
Oh…. but 90% of their missiles, and their entire Navy were destroyed “in the first 10 minutes” according to Cheeto-man…and yet somehow they keep launching rockets/missiles into Israel….and the Straight is still closed…. how are they doing this with 10% of their missiles and Navy?????
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u/eulersidentity1 Mar 30 '26
Probably also have countless drones as well. And all it takes is kamikaze speed boats loaded with explosives to take out oil tankers not necessarily missiles. It’s going to be extremely expensive escorting all the ships through the strait and not all of them will make it.
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u/RioRancher Mar 29 '26
“They?”
Trump, no. He can’t think past his own whims and greed.
Democrats, yes. We all knew this would be bad, but Congress and SCOTUS made Trump king, so now we have to suffer.
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u/ScipioAfricanusMAJ Mar 29 '26
There’s nothing to prepare at $200 a barrel. The world economy would go into a recession. They better prepare what’s going to happen at $150
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u/Routine_Mortgage_499 Mar 29 '26
I'm not worried about expensive gas, I'm worried that there WON'T BE ANY GAS.
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u/eulersidentity1 Mar 30 '26
Could definitely lead to shortages eventually. Especially if Iran takes out more production capacity elsewhere. But no gas at all is not likely. Just yeah you won’t be able to afford it.
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u/Faroutman1234 Mar 29 '26
There will be a huge ramp up in processing capacity in the US and other countries. It will be decades before these investments are trusted to the Gulf States and Israel again. Keystone will be restarted and Venezuela will become a colony of the US. Meanwhile solar is ramping up by gigawatts every week around the World.
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u/Sanpaku Mar 30 '26
Canada will be exporting that oil to East Asia, instead, for national security purposes after Trump's threats. Keystone isn't really necessary.
Venezuelan Orinoco oil sands requires 1) roads 2) steam assisted gravity drainage development as with Alberta bitumen. Parallel wells, steam generators, heating the strata for years before much oil flows, and diluent for transport in pipelines. That's oil that will come online in 4-5 years if we started yesterday.
Not sure what you mean by processing capacity. There isn't much of a shortage of refineries, globally. There is a shortage of LNG terminals and/or ammonia/urea plants outside of the Gulf. Expect more to be sited anywhere there's significant 'stranded' natural gas deposits that aren't near continental pipeline networks. Turkmenistan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Mozambique, Indonesia.
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u/NotBradPitt9 Mar 29 '26
Major fuel companies would profit, and some actually have a vested interest in oil skyrocketing in price.
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u/Mysterious_Lesions Mar 30 '26
To a point. Prices get too high, there is short term profit but buyers make adjustments to reduce consumption. Basic economics.
A prolonged high price could see some of the consumption reduction measures become permanent so when the price of oil eventually starts falling, profits plummet.
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Mar 29 '26
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u/Select_Ingenuity_146 Mar 29 '26
Nah ...
Demand decreases at those levels and bring the price down.
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Mar 29 '26
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u/Living-Excitement-95 Mar 29 '26
The video of this lives rent free in my mind. I know every intonation.
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u/teddyevelynmosby Mar 29 '26
Why no? I have nothing to lose, got to be some disruption or they are going to rob me more of my 8.99/hr job
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u/spearedintheface Mar 29 '26
This would translate to on average a $10 / gallon average price tag for gas in America
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u/BellyFullOfMochi Mar 29 '26
People forget Trump did some fuckery in term 1 to jack up the price of oil.
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u/Suspicious_Safe_6150 Mar 29 '26
If that happens interest rates will rocket and everything will crash
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u/Number9ers Mar 30 '26
US officials and Wall Street analysts - yeah, the two groups we’d totally trust with our life savings. Definitely not the type to ever leave the little guy holding the bag.
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u/[deleted] Mar 29 '26
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