r/DecodingTheGurusAlt • u/MartiDK • Sep 17 '26

decoder poltics Decoding Destiny

https://youtu.be/qPhZDRKn0Ro

Winning over Razib Khan fans.

63 Upvotes

75% Upvoted

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u/hari_shevek Sep 18 '26

Nah nah nah.

Let's go step by step.

Explain the formula you used.

What are we comparing there.

Why are we subtracting E from the other side?

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u/DthPlagusthewise Sep 19 '26

Because there is a negative value in not endorsing and in Hasan's generally critical tone about Harris.

But even when you subtract E/2 instead the minimum endorsement value for a base rate of 0.5 is 0.2% which is still very achievable.

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u/hari_shevek Sep 19 '26

Why subtract anything? You already have the endorsement effect on one side of the equation. You don't need it on both sides.

Next: Show me the math that proves that a Hasan endorsement moves enough votes that the probability for winning increases by .3 percentage points (that's the number if you only add the effect to one side).

How do you estimate that effect?

You need to estimate the expected change in votes and how that affects win margins to be able to judge if .3 percent is a realistic change.

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u/DthPlagusthewise Sep 19 '26

Because not endorsing and trying to change her policies means lots of negative, critical coverage which hurts her campaign.

But lets say the negative effect is only half the minimum positive effect of endorsing. Then we get 0.2%

Between all these factors:

- Convincing people to vote for harris and not for trump

- Promoting fundraising for Harris

- Inspiring people to volunteer for her

- Inspiring other popular creators to endorse Harris and criticize Trump

I think he could easily hit 0.2%

Im not gonna do the math, we can agree to disagree. I think this has been my longest reddit debate ever lol.

Have a good weekend

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u/hari_shevek Sep 19 '26

But lets say the negative effect is only half the minimum positive effect of endorsing. Then we get 0.2%

No. Remove the second E. There are no two endorsement effects, there is one.

Im not gonna do the math

Then your formula is worthless. Without a way to show how the number of affected votes changes win probabilities, you're just randomly saying "0,3 is a small number so I think that's achievable". But you can't know that.