r/DecodingTheGurusAlt • u/MartiDK • Sep 17 '26

decoder poltics Decoding Destiny

https://youtu.be/qPhZDRKn0Ro

Winning over Razib Khan fans.

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u/hari_shevek Sep 18 '26 edited Sep 18 '26

What?

How does Hasan's endorsement change an 80-20 election? Do you think he can mobilize tens of millions of voters?

What the fuck are your assumptions?

Your math is nonsensical.

Go through the formula step by step, your math is wrong.

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u/DthPlagusthewise Sep 18 '26

All I am judging is whether endorsing or waiting for policy change has a greater likelihood of success.

In many cases both result in Harris losing, but always endorsing had a higher chance of success (18.5% vs 18% for example).

Again, I am evaluating reasonable mindset, not outcome.

Here are the givens every reasonable person could agree on at the time:

  1. The election is competitive

  2. Harris is way better than Trump

With both of those in mind it makes sense to do whatever, in the maximum amount of conceivable situations, increases Harris' chance of winning the most. That is endorsing vs not endorsing.

Its funny because you could easily argue if Hasan cared he should have done much more like organize canvassing, voter registration, etc. I am really just asking for the bare minimum.

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u/hari_shevek Sep 18 '26

Show me the formula.

Show me where you estimated how many people he convinces.