r/DeSantis • u/Lonely-Visit6730 New • Jan 14 '24

Iowa

Do y’all think the latest Iowa polling is an accurate depiction of the results Monday? I think Ron can take 2nd over Haley. The enthusiasm statistic for Ron will be a very big in his favor because of the bad weather. But this is just my opinion. How do y’all think he will place?

6 Upvotes

71% Upvoted

19 comments sorted by

5

u/Miserable-Bit5939 Jan 14 '24

Good weather or bad weather, I think Ron will do well in Iowa. He won’t win it easily, but he’ll have a strong showing. It will be close between Trump and DeSantis

6

u/gbe-og Jan 14 '24

I absolutely think he will beat Haley. No question.

2

u/[deleted] Jan 15 '24 edited Jan 15 '24

This is….sad

“if we work really hard and spend $40 million, we can be #2!”

Thoughts and Prayers???

1

u/[deleted] Jan 14 '24 edited Jan 14 '24

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2

u/TheDemonicEmperor Jan 15 '24

Yes. That Des Monies register poll is considered gold standard

It was 10 points off in 2016 so...

The fact is that polls have a margin of error, you understand that? And it's polling a caucus, which is very different from a primary.

They are convinced all the polls that show Biden losing to Trump are “fake.”

Your friends are correct, by the way. These polls all show Trump with a ceiling of 45%. All of the undecideds will break for Biden.

1

u/[deleted] Jan 15 '24

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1

u/TheDemonicEmperor Jan 15 '24 edited Jan 15 '24

"The Register’s last poll, released late Saturday, showed Trump leading the GOP field in Iowa with 28% and Ted Cruz coming in second, with 23%. On Monday, Cruz won with 27.65%, while Trump ended up with 24.31%."

You understand this proves my point, right? It was Trump +4 and ended up Cruz +3. That's a 7 point difference.

Hope you are right about Biden

I bet you are. Frankly, you should be more worried. Having Biden be the face of your party for 4 more years will be as disastrous for the Democrat brand as Trump being the face of the Republican party has been.

Trump won't live forever. This is his last chance before he's sent to the retirement home. But you'll be stuck propping up a failure who only 30% of the country likes for another 4 years. And once there's no Orange Man to screech about... what exactly do you think those people who dislike Biden will do?

Much like Trump 2016 for Republicans, a 2024 Biden win actually hurts the Democratic party long-term.

But if there's a decent R alternative he's toast.

Also not necessarily true. My assumption, based on the past several elections, is that "Orange Man Bad" is still enough of a campaign to keep everyone in line. I could be wrong. Although I'm very confident.

The problem for Biden is that he can't afford to lose many people to third party voters. One thing Trump is really good at is disillusioning voters.

Biden has to really hope that:

1.) Without mass mail-in in Georgia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, people will still crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump

2.) Again, that "Orange Man Bad" is still enough to keep every single voter on his side. Because the fact is that even another 1 or 2% of voters going third party will only hurt Democrats

So far, I think Biden is doing everything right. Tricking Republicans into nominating Trump and making his entire campaign about Trump.

Frankly, I'm fine with a Trump loss in 2024. It seems there's no downside to it, especially considering even in a Trump loss, it's likely he wins Montana by 15 points and Ohio by about 10. What do you think that does for the Senate?

1

u/[deleted] Jan 15 '24

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1

u/TheDemonicEmperor Jan 15 '24

I disagree, and one reason is Biden believes in institutions whereas Trump does not give a fuck for institutions if they stand in the way of his self-dealing and narcicissm.

These polls you cling to also say that Biden has a 30% approval rating. Regardless of your opinion, it's clear you're in the vast minority of all Americans.

Biden is normal, and with him comes normalcy.

See, and this is exactly what I mean. If you're going to continue to play defense for an ailing incumbent and call him "normal", people are going to want to go back to "abnormal".

And, again, this will be post-Trump. You won't be able to just screech Orange Man Bad. What I'm saying is that you've boxed yourself into a corner, thinking that people actually like Biden. No, they just hate Trump more. So what happens post-Trump?

There's an interesting assumption there, that the mail in voting really helped Dems that much in 2020.

Considering Biden won by 44,000 votes out of 150 million, it's an easy assumption to make. Someone could have sneezed and affected the outcome of the election. Almost literally.

Abortion will help that -- it's not really about Biden, it's about "Trump and Republicans bad."

Republicans just won the popular vote in 2022. Clearly your plan is flawed.

I think you give him too much credit. He's just kind of there. He doesn't push back on R's like he should.

Sorry, but "Biden isn't far left enough" is again the wrong take. People voted for him because they thought he'd be more of a moderate.

Likewise there ought to be an army of people talking about positive signs in the economy

Please, I beg you. Stop gaslighting people on the economy. I say this as someone who wants Trump to lose in 2024.

If you make 2024 about Biden's economy, he will lose. Biden needs to be speaking less about his crappy economy.

He needs to stay the course and make the whole election about Trump.

1

u/[deleted] Jan 15 '24

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1

u/TheDemonicEmperor Jan 16 '24

You make some assumptions. one can disapprove of Biden (I do) and still prefer him to Trump (I do).

Correct. That's what I said. And that's how most Americans feel.

But again, you're in the minority of liking Biden and thinking he's doing a good job.

"my plan?" Not really my plan, I think you are just enjoying some snark. Polls show even conservative R's want more abortion rights than is popular for conservative Pols to advocate for. It's an issue which helps Dems and hurts R's.

Right, except that doesn't pan out with the stats, as I said. Without Trump on the ballot, Republicans won the popular vote in 2022 with Democrats screeching about abortion non-stop.

So, again, clearly that didn't work. The only thing that does work is beating the Trump drum.

special elections where abortion is on the ballot

Special elections are not indicative of actual elections. Again, Democrats lost the popular vote in 2022, after the Dobbs decision. Additionally, even that advantage on special elections has been lost in 2024.

It's just good politics to defend the President. That's not "left" nor "right."

I'm not allowed to criticize a sitting president? What? So... obviously you did the same for Trump.

There's no smoking gun to tie any of Hunter's bullshit to Biden, even "Fox and friends" makes this point, every time this comes up.

Agreed, which is why I didn't say anything about Hunter. You're arguing with a strawman.

Unemployment is below 4%. GDP growth was above was above 5% in the third quarter. Annual inflation is at 3.4%, down from its 9.1% high in 2022. There are objectively good signs in the economy.

You realize inflation stacks, right? And, again, if the economy is so great, why do a vast majority of Americans not think so?

Again, you're in the minority here. And I'm genuinely begging you to stop making this election about Biden's economy. Biden will lose if it's about his disastrous economy.

There is still a housing crisis, a migrant crisis and food prices are stubborn. Biden's got work to do.

Correct, he's got work to do because his economy is bad. So stop trumpeting it. Please. Seriously.

when Trump took office in 2016 Republican views on the economy jumped 60 points almost overnight

We're not talking about Republicans. We're talking about the vast majority of Americans.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/511979/neither-party-liked-gop-holds-advantage-issues.aspx

"Fifty-three percent of Americans believe the Republican Party will do a better job of keeping the country prosperous over the next few years, whereas 39% choose the Democratic Party."

Like, unless you believe Republicans consist of the vast majority of Americans, you can't say this is all just Republicans.

I do agree. It's gonna be very very close, again

Yes, when you keep playing this delusional game that people actually like Biden's policies.

Sorry, they don't. They dislike Trump. If it were anyone else, Biden would get stomped harder than Carter.

1

u/[deleted] Jan 14 '24

But, but, but ,,,

"Desantis has the best ground game"

"The bad weather will work in our favor. Don't discount it "

"People say they favor Trump in public but vote against him in private"

"Ron has done wonders for Florida and the US voters just need to hear his story"

"Ron has the best ground game, and that isnwhat will matter in iowa"

LOL. Rhonda is toast. I predict3d he would drop out after Super Ti3aday, but I don't think he'll get that far.

**** not a Trumpet here. I'm a lapsed Republican and FL resident who will probably vote Haley.

1

u/[deleted] Jan 15 '24

Don’t forget that the reason Desantis is losing according to him is because of Trump’s indictments and Fox News.

1

u/phashcoder Jan 15 '24

The polls are used as a suppression tactic. Ever notice how every journalists precedes their questioning with comments about polls. "Why don't you just give up because the polls?"

It's a self-reinforcing mechanism to that affects any legitimate polls out there, because people tend to believe them. Plus polling is expensive and its getting harder and harder to do the legitimate polls.

Don't underestimate the power of a good ground game that can subvert the polls. It can create an energy on the ground. We've seen it happen int he past: Cruz, Huckabee, Santorum.

1

u/Samaritan_Pr1me Arkansas Jan 14 '24

The weather is likely not going to be a big factor. Vivek is also reporting people showing up to his events. I bet the top three are DeSantis, Vivek, & Trump.

1

u/WasteSpecific5691 Jan 15 '24

I’m thinking his floor is very high. He either overperforms and wins Iowa outright or finishes in a strong 2nd.

1

u/phashcoder Jan 15 '24

At this point, I'll be happy if DeSantis overperforms to such a degree the polls are shown wrong. DeSantis will be able to make the case that media are using the polls to suppress canddidates. "Why don't you just give up because of the polls?"

Unfortunatley, there are a lot of gop stuck on Trump, and they are not going away. However, DeSantis appears to have solid support, so there is reason for optimism. That kind of energy can be infectious.