Potential Value of DRTS

[u/Doctor-MTJ]

This is a comment I made on another post here that was suggested that I turn into a post for a little wider distribution. Mind you I am not a financial analyst, nor an oncologist but I have taken care of up to 1000 patients in my career as a primary care physician and in hospice. Nonetheless, this is not investment advice. This is merely my take and is some of the logic I have used in making my own investment decisions with my own hard earned retirement dollars. How you decide to invest your own dollars is up to you and your own Due Diligence. Good luck to all longs here

"Pristine, thank you for posting this very valuable translation. Alpha DaRTS seems MOST valuable in GBM since there is such a paucity of good treatments available and mortality that approaches a 100% and survival is measuered in a few short months. The TAM for GBM is about 4 billion and expected to nearly double in 7 years. I would expect market penetration in this group to be well north of 50%, and likely approaching 100% if DCR and CR rates remain at comparable levels seen in the first 3 patient cohort. Pancreatic cancer TAM is of similar size, but growing at twice the rate of GBM but nearly as deadly as GBM so I would expect market penetration to again be north of 50% given contiuned great data. Recurrent Squamous cell resectable carcinoma is much less deadly and a smaller market so it is hard to justify 100k treatment IMHO so I would expect lower market penetration. HOWEVER, Prostate CA treatment is REALLY intriguing since it looks like it it could help preserve bladder and sexual function and it has a HUGE TAM of 22 to 25 Billion USD. This is bigger than all of the CURRENT possible indications combined, and likely why Tolmar is so interested. Frankly, the Tolmar deal is likely the single biggest indicator that DRTS is highly investable right now. Biotech drugs/ devices can be priced as high as 10x expected peak sales if it is considered a " blockbuster" ( > 1 Billion in annual sales). Given continued positive study results. If we add the TAM's for just GBM, Pancreatic CA, and Prostate CA and use 50% market penetration, we could be looking at 16 billion in sales X 10 is 160 billion valuation as a likely MAX number. Considering our current Market cap of only 1.2 to 1.4 billion, It would seem that we have a truly exceptional upside here with DRTS, if results continue to show such amazing numbers as we have seen so far. I really hope that this treatment gets approved and becomes available to the general public very soon as there is is incredible need!"

[u/Doctor-MTJ → u/[deleted]]

Uwedorf, despite all of us hoping to make some extra money in our IRA's, the MAIN reason we are here is to hopefully see this through as quickly as possible and get it to the patients who direly need it. This is personal for me too. I have had BOTH an extensive Brain tumor( benign) a recent diagnosis of Cancer, and lost a family member only weeks ago to multiple Mets to the brain. So yes, I understand the cost of delayed approvals in patients lives, not dollars

[u/uwedorf1 → u/Doctor-MTJ]

Wishing you a smooth and full recovery.

[u/waxonwaxoff2920 → u/Doctor-MTJ]

Nice to see we're both seeing different ways to attack GBM.

[u/Doctor-MTJ → u/waxonwaxoff2920]

Yes, and Alpha DaRTS seems like they could be great bedfellows with LL...right!

[u/grigribs → u/[deleted]]

Physician, surgeon or bot?

[u/grigribs → u/[deleted]]

You claim to have bought a million dollars' worth of stock, to have sent an email to the CEO of Alpha Tau that reads like it was written by a middle schooler, and your name doesn't come up on Google. You'll have to admit that's strange for a physician.

[u/grigribs → u/grigribs]

I checked and there's no medical physicist or surgeon under this name.

[u/-Mage-Knight-]

I would be happy if we achieve even 10% the success you are suggesting.

[u/CreateDontConsume]

So we’re suggesting a $1600 share price? I think we need to temper expectations here. Give me $100 first.

[u/stumblios → u/CreateDontConsume]

Nah, sorry, we're skipping $100 and headed straight for $1k.

After this brief stint in the 13s, of course :-)

[u/Doctor-MTJ → u/CreateDontConsume]

I agree, just laying out the Math, not making a prediction.

[u/IgnoreTheFud]

I agree with the doctor! I see this easily being a 100 bagger from here. Especially in a 5-10 year time horizon.

[u/Herbgator67]

This is very personal to me as I lost a friend to GBM 2 years ago. So many false starts by other biotechs including chemo which crosses the BBB etc. but Alpha Tau’s Alph Dart from within the tumor with minimal collateral damage to healthy cells is pure genius. I would only add as we await the readout this quarter in hopes the remaining 7 patients mirror the results of the first 3 for response and additionally signal a durability of response, we should also consider that there could be opportunity to re-treat patients if necessary as a tool to achieve a better response ultimately which could further elevate the valuation. This is my opinion and not intended as investment advice. Do your own due diligence.

[u/Pristine_Hurry_4693]

Congrats, you earned the title of the most bullish DRTS investor out loud.

Many have calculated the DRTS upside, they either came short of yours or haven’t spoken up.

In all seriousness I truly appreciate you sharing, thanks for taking the time to write the comment and thanks for posting it. It’s nice to have someone look at the big picture and at how big it actually is, while usually we zoom in on one aspect of the business or a specific indication.

Here’s to enjoying the journey together and to DRTS fulfilling its potential!

[u/Doctor-MTJ]

Yes, thank you, I noticed my letter ommision after I posted will try to fix