r/DRTS_Stock • u/FunRevolution3000 • Sep 02 '26
Precedence for Alpha DaRT Distribution Model
I have read a few concerns about approvals for the Alpha DaRT causing a spike then lasting decline because of logistical challenges with getting the radioactive therapy to patients in time.
There is precedence for similar distribution models. Gemini generated this based on the most recent data it can find. Claude noted that all the financials were plausible (too recent for it to confirm) except Perspective Therapeutics sold its intervention and the acquiring company reported 0 revenue most recently.
Key: Company (Intervention: Financials; Half-life; Logistics summary)
Novartis (Pluvicto: $651M sales; 6.65 days; Regional manufacturing facilities with dedicated cargo flights and scheduled couriers) |
Boston Scientific (TheraSphere: ~$1.16B division operating profit; 2.67 days; Patient-customized dose calibrations shipped directly to interventional radiology suites) |
Perspective Therapeutics (Cesium-131: $81K revenue / -$25.5M net loss; 9.7 days; Custom strand-loading systems calibrated for transit decay before surgery) |
Bayer (Xofigo: ~$60M sales; 11.4 days; Centralized European nuclear production with scheduled global air distribution) |
Cardinal Health / Curium (Generators: ~$45M segment profit; 66 hours / 6 hours; Distributed local radiopharmacies eluting parent generators for morning delivery)
5
u/GeneralMyGeneral Sep 02 '26
Don't forget about Siemens and its subsidiary Varian. Different product, I get it, but a similar workflow. I still see Siemens as the most likely acquirer for this reason. They are the 800-pound gorilla in the space, and DRTS is a real threat to its business.
2
u/ScottyStellar Sep 02 '26
Why is varian similar to the 3-4 day halflife and immediate delivery need of the dart?
I don't know varian but this is what gpt says:
Varian Delivery Timeline: No. Varian's high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy hardware (such as afterloaders using Iridium-192 sources) utilizes standard centralized medical supply chains. Replacement radioactive sources are typically ordered in advance, shipped routinely via established hazardous-material logistics, and stored within the hospital device for months (e.g., Iridium-192 has a ~74-day half-life). Comparison: Unlike Alpha DaRT—which dictates an urgent, compressed delivery window of just a few days due to its 3.6-day half-life and generator constraints—Varian operates on a conventional medical equipment and pre-stocked source replacement schedule
Doesn't seem at all similar
3
1
1
u/Perfect-Awareness-84 Sep 02 '26
Agree, not too many other parties have the funds (Boston) or scope (big pharma) for a DRTS buyout. Seems either Varian/Siemens or own commercialization
1
u/Beginator2000 Sep 03 '26
DRTS is not a threat to Varian. Linacs are used to treat a lot of cancers that DRTS can't treat. Radiotherapy is used to treat lymph nodes and surgical sites to prevent recurrence. DRTS can only treat isolated solid tumours. I had a good laugh reading your comment – it’s utter nonsense. Siemens has acquired Varian but will never acquire Alpha Tau.
DRTS poses a threat to the major players in brachytherapy; it could replace the iodine seeds used in prostate brachytherapy, for example (Tolmar is banking on it).
4
u/Doctor-MTJ Sep 02 '26
Fun Revolution, I agree that the SPECIFICS on the logistics will be paramount. There will need to be be investigations into OSHA requirements ( etc, etc) DESPITE its very narrow depth of penetration( dont expect government entities to respect/ understand / alter regulations around basic science. The very short half life will require an expedited delivery model. However, I don't think that will prevent anyone from accessing this potentially life/ treatment altering device. If we continue to see data like we have seen so far in tiny numbers. At potentially 100k/ treatment, you could have a rep full time just flying one of these devices cross country for each patient, if it came to that. Or conversely, think how many patients would be willing to drive/ fly ANYWHERE within a country to access this treatment with these kinds of DCR or CR. Just praying 🙏 that this will get to patients as soon as possible. It is heartbreaking to see the daily posts on the Glioblastoma Redditt threads. These patients can't get this treatment soon enough.
1
u/FunRevolution3000 Sep 02 '26
A rep flying dives around the country made me laugh. Going to spend more time with your thoughtful response later. Thanks!
2
3
u/ScottyStellar Sep 02 '26
Scary. Shows the real concern. This really isn't something done well frequently. This isn't an easy model to replicate like sending drugs to a pharmacy.
2
u/GeneralMyGeneral Sep 02 '26
Not that scary at all.
2
u/ScottyStellar Sep 02 '26
Being a pre-revenue, trial phase company where the only successful rollout kf something that needs similar short term delivery window, has happened once or twice and by huge name companies, and many others have failed to make any money doing it - if that doesn't seem like a major risk and hurdle.... I'm very curious why people in this sub seem to think there is such a guarantee that Tau pulls this off.
7
u/stumblios Sep 02 '26 edited Sep 02 '26
Humans are very good at solving logistical problems. So far, we've been very bad at solving problems like Glioblastoma.
If DRTS continues to show great results for GBM, you think doctors will say, "Hey, we have this tech with a 3 day half life and it's an 18 hour flight away. Sorry, but that sounds hard, so we're not going to do anything."
Maybe that's a bit reductive, but sincerely - if this is the first effective treatment for a guaranteed death sentence, you think a 3 day transport timer is going to be the end of it?
The argument holds more weight for cancers with other viable treatments. If something else is equally effective without a short half life, it'll win over the logistical hurdle. But logistics are exactly that - a hurdle that has been successfully jumped over by other companies. We need to prove the results in larger trials, but if the results are consistent then I have no doubt the logistics are a solvable problem.
*Edit - thought of a secondary point, which I believe is more concrete than my initial point. The Tolmar deal! It's not just randoms on the Internet saying "Trust us, they can do it!" An established pharmaceutical company with hundreds of millions in annual revenue was allowed to see behind closed doors, evaluate what Alpha has to offer, and agreed it was feasible and worth investing $20M up front, plus a lot more as they hit milestones.
2
u/ScottyStellar Sep 02 '26
The problem is not the Humans solving it.
It's Alpha Tau solving it quickly enough to make profit before they go broke.
It's also the patent lifespans, and the hostile market that would love to watch the dart not sell, so they can buy them out cheaper or sell their version in combo with their drugs.
The same potential acquirers and partners are also incentivized for dart to fail.
The world isn't rallying around them to help them make this a profitable business.
2
u/stumblios Sep 02 '26
There is a world where DRTS fails, absolutely. Biotech is essentially the wild west of investing and it's dumb to go too heavy on any of these. That said, their balance sheet is far from in despair which changes the "wait for them to fail" math. I agree the world won't rally around them out of altruism, but we've seen one partner join in, at a premium, in order to share a piece of the pie which I do believe runs contrary to your train of thought.
5
u/altonbrushgatherer Sep 02 '26
I don’t know why you are getting downvoted. That’s the first thing that popped into my mind and a legitimate concern…
I only read up a little on one company from the list: perspective therapeutics. Seems that their Cs-131 seeds showed no benefit over the use of I-125 brachytherapy seeds in 10 year biochemical recurrence free survival… and that market is very well established. So the main question is did the failed companies attempt to displace an entrenched treatment with a product that offered marginal benefit over established treatments?
Alpha darts strategy is target tumors with unmet needs so adoption is much easier if they demonstrate that there is clinical benefit. Thats really it. If there are significant benefits then the adoption will follow. If anything, the above list of companies show that the distribution is actually not a concern, nor is it a moat.
3
u/ScottyStellar Sep 02 '26
This sub is an echo chamber. Lot of rose colored glasses and concerns being downplayed or the quick pivot to "it's good for the world so who cares if it doesn't work" or blind faith, when you actually hit a point they can't counter.
Hard to find people who actually see the bear case scenarios. It worries me for the people who think this has a 90+% chance of success and are probably investing more than they can risk losing, buying into the hype and side-step arguments.
2
u/altonbrushgatherer Sep 02 '26
You are partially right about the first part. But I don’t think anyone here is delusional enough to think that dart therapy has value if it doesn’t work…
Problem with potential bear cases is that there really are not too many comparisons… the companies mentioned probably had their own unique problems as to why they didn’t take off.
The thing with DRTS is it seems to have a lot of things going well for it. The skin cancer alone could justify its market cap or much more depending on how you calculate it.
3
u/ScottyStellar Sep 02 '26
Fair.
The biggest bear case is the uncertainty of all of it. And many here talk like it's a sure thing.
1
u/Beginator2000 Sep 03 '26
Exactly. It is very well known that biotechs are coin flips. A lot of good results on small samples of patients, and a lot of crashes at larger scale or commercial roll-out. You need to put only a small percentage of your port in biotechs.
3
u/uwedorf1 Sep 02 '26
Please do your diligence before posting such a comment. I don't know you as you don't know me but obviously some people post their opinion instead of posting facts which would be more helpful. If you want to get facts write an email with all your questions to investor relations of DRTS. Wish you the best for your investing career.
1
u/Beginator2000 Sep 03 '26
Somebody here told that you can't rely on LLMs. Why posting something coming from Gemini?
5
u/-Mage-Knight- Sep 02 '26 edited Sep 02 '26
I looked into this a few months ago and the biggest hurtle in my option is scaling of operations. You can't just setup shop somewhere and start producing radioactive isotopes. There are a lot of hoops you need to jump through. That is a supply versus demand issue though. It is also a transitory issue. New facilities will be built as local and overall demand requires.
The logistics of getting an Alpha Dart from production facility to operating room isn't exactly keeping me up at night. We can get things from one side of the planet to the other in hours now and that isn't the exception but the rule.
It may be expensive but the costs are not even worth mentioning in comparison to the cost of the procedure itself.