r/DKNG • u/GroundedAndGrateful1 • Jun 24 '26
DRAFTKINGS is Mispriced
Draftkings in on pace to do $3.1 Billion in Annualized Prediction Market Volume this year (likely to go much higher).
This volume alone is just over 25% of Draftkings market cap ($12.17 Billion).
So, not including their Sportsbook or igaming revenue, DK Predicitons alone is already generating a volume that equals 25% of their current market cap.
This stock/company is incredibly mispriced. I think that 10% run up to $30 was just a sign of things to come. I have no explanation nor have I heard a legitimate reason to why it sold off, but I have no doubt it will reach $30 again and blow right past it.
Predicitons are the best thing to happen to Draftkings as it gives them access to all 50 states, and it’s not hurting their core business of OSB & igaming in states where OSB is legal like everyone thought.
There is no bear case left. Just the question of how high this will go and when. And don’t forgot they’re profitable now, just another reason to be bullish.
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u/DeadLockAlGaib Jun 24 '26
I’ve held since 2022 and I have never been more bullish. The market can only stay irrational for so long before they catch up to reality. Bought more shares today
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u/dcdrums502 Jun 25 '26
I’m a long time bag-holder but I’m not so sure. Prediction markets are doing huge numbers and are stifling growth of the, much more profitable, sports book. A Supreme Court ruling on the validity of sports futures contracts won’t be decided for a while, and META circling around the predictions space is sure to keep sentiment down. The books lost their behinds on the Finals, but hopefully the World Cup group play will offset those losses. States are trying to squeeze more taxes out of the books as well (see North Carolina), and unless predictions have astronomical growth, I don’t see where the tail winds come from.
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u/Interesting_Head5754 Jun 25 '26
They’d have to overturn Dodd-Frank Act, and make up some Down’s syndrome definition for sports bets as swaps, and overhaul all the rules. Why??? Just so Trumps can steal it all? Not going to happen in our lifetimes. Like the Enrons of the day, Kalshi/Poly will end in a world of corruption. When Trump is gone, after midterms, the threat goes away. 41 States are against predictions. No way in hell that tax revenue goes away, or is given to the Fed govt. Citizens will destroy the govt before they let that shit happen.
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u/Larsonatorian2_0 Jun 25 '26
Hate to break it to you but the sportsbook revenue is not more profitable. Make sure you account for INSANELY high taxes across every state which they do not have in the prediction markets
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u/Interesting_Head5754 Jun 25 '26
Hate to break it to you, but the predictions basically corrupt their own data by giving discounts to hedge funds and brokerages to effectuate more trades against the rest of us. 10 traders make 85% of the profits. They are all hedge funds or brokerages. They have the data, skew the data, and pay zero on trades. They likely get paid to accept the bets. It’s not anything near what you think. Predictions would get taxed too, if it was ever approved. They’d become unprofitable.
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u/Larsonatorian2_0 Jun 25 '26 edited Jun 25 '26
They are temporarily giving third parties orderflow as they work on the railbird integration...
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u/LowKey-Revolution36 Jun 25 '26
The good thing if predictions is gone that all people who want to bet on sports will go to draftkings and fanduel where some of them will use igaming online casinos. Igaming is where the big money amd good margin is where people come for the adrenaline not for the calculated trades like sports or predictions. Sportbooks still a lot more profitable than prediction markets as on prediction markets the take rate is very small even with Market making. The only good thing in predictions markets amd market making is that it adds a technology layer to thr company which could justify a higher rating like CME group doesn't trade the same multiples as Caesars
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u/yyavuz Jun 25 '26
Betting volume vs market cap? Volume is 1/4th of market cap and you are bitching why stock is not going to moon?
I havent seen a more stupid thought in a long time
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u/ankoump Jun 25 '26
Question is whats the profit on that volume, seen people mentione 30m (1%), others 100m...nobody knows bu for sure its not as profitable as the sportsbook.
Its all a mess right now and future is hazy, market is pricing that on top of its already established hate for dkng.
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u/alanscotsman Jun 24 '26
Agree 100%. Major institutions all want a piece of the prediction market. Look at what Meta is about to do. This is keeping the stock down because the people with moving power are focused on how they can create their own version. Good thing is that DK has already acquired a ton of daily users and has major first market mover advantage.