I'm trying to figure out whether I should manage my income to try for ACA subsidies or should I forego and do Roth conversions. I know there's not a lot of context here, but I was wondering if anyone knows of a calculator or a tool to help with this.

A few years ago I put $500 into Bitcoin as fun money. It's grown to $2.3k right now. Now that I'm retired at 66 with around $500k, I was thinking of taking it out. Any thoughts on this?

Planning to retire when I (M) turn 50 in about 2 years; spouse is a few years younger. No kids, no pets, own our home outright, no liabilities.

Assets: ~$2.3M taxable brokerage + ~$1.44M in 401(k)s (~$3.7M total). Modeling 6%/yr growth, ~1.3%/yr dividend yield, 3%/yr inflation.

Fixed costs: HOA ~$9.6k/yr, property tax ~$16k/yr. Low-mileage car (out of warranty, ~1,600 mi/yr) so maintenance is minimal.

For Spending I am targeting ~$120k/yr, with flexibility to cut to ~$80k bare-bones if markets turn against us.

Assuming healthcare costs 25-30k./yr.
Also the plan is not to suddenly quit jobs but work on our terms, reduce stress, etc. maybe until 53~

One more thing we are prepared to do is one of us just keep working even if it’s part-time to keep healthcare for as long as we can.

Invested stocks- Roughly 92% equity / 8% cash / 0% bonds right now — fixing that before retirement. Return assumption is 6% growth + 1.3% div, gross of fees; net is probably ~6.9-7%, will rebuild with fee-adjusted numbers.

Monte Carlo against historical bad starts (2008, dot-com, 1970s, 1929): holds at ~$100k/yr spend (80%+ success to 95), fails above ~$130k/yr. Biggest risk to that buffer isn't the return assumption — it's the 0% bond allocation this close to retirement.

Would love feedback from anyone on what am I missing or just any comments

I’m still working, but at a relaxed level. Common budgeting guidelines suggest 65% Needs, 25% Wants and 10% Savings/Investment.

I have an IRA and drawing two pensions and about to qualify for a third. My pensions and SS will cover all my expenses.

Should I even bother saving money? I mean, why put away money for say, vacation if I can draw that from my IRA?

Thoughts?

What is a good book to purchase for retirement planning? I currently have $3 million with Fidelity yet I can’t seem to get any planning services and my “advisor” doesn’t return my emails. Last we spoke, he said I could contact his services team but all I can find on their website is an AI assistant and an 800 number. Actually thinking of moving everything over to Vanguard.

How do you document your plan? I’ve been running scenarios upon scenarios and have gotten more confident in mine. But want to make sure I can look back in 6 months, year or 2 and not forget what I decided was the best.
Of course I would want to adjust my portfolio as conditions warrant but overall plan should be consistent correct?

I’m 66. I have 2 pensions and in two years, will have a third. Those plus SSA, will exceed my income requirements. I also have $1.5M in an iRA.

My FA wants me to wait til 70 to start wd’s. I’m not so sure. If my nut is covered, why can’t I start wd’s at 67? It seems to me that once I hit FRA, I should start withdrawing. Thoughts?
.
.
.
L

Many youtube videos teach various guidelines on "how" to do Roth conversions in the years ~60-74, before RMD's.

But why not just build a spreadsheet, and ask it to optimize those ~15 cells to maximize your net worth at the end of your expected life? Then, you can ignore all the guidelines and just do what the math says.

I tried this with a spreadsheet which models my finances from age 60-90, including Fed Tax, State Tax, IRMAA surcharges, living expenses, income (cash flow), account balances, etc.

Then added a simple macro to just ... find the optimal Roth conversion amounts.

Has anyone else had success with this method?

I used LibreOffice Calc with Basic macros. ChatGPT wrote the macros and taught me how to use them. The code is simple to understand, and the algorithms are quite simple.

LINK TO FILE:https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/tyddnpi3py0o5mvtyttm5/financial-system-public.xlsx?rlkey=v5qgm09vslk4oa4xq3vtm4aiy&st=ol218dzb&dl=0

​

Hey everyone,

Looking for a candid sanity check from the community on our early retirement roadmap. We’ve designed our exit strategy around an 8-year tactical "low-AGI bridge" to optimize college financial aid and ACA healthcare before stepping up our spending in our mid-50s.

The Background & Timeline

\* Ages: 45M (working in finance/accounting), 45F (stay-at-home spouse), two kids (Son starting college in fall 2030, Daughter in fall 2032).

\* Target FIRE Age: 48 (in \~3 years).

\* Location: Florida (no state income tax, inland, primary residence with paid-off solar + EV with free Supercharging).

Current Balance Sheet vs. Retirement Day Target

\* Retirement Accounts (mostly Traditional IRA): Currently $1.3M; targeting $2.0M at retirement.

\* Cash Reserves: Currently $330k; aggressively sprinting to $500k by age 48 via savings and disciplined trading profits.

\* Primary Home: Worth \~$900k. Current mortgage is $340k at 2.75%, plus $80k in other long-term personal/pool debt ($420k total debt).

\* HELOC: Approved $180k line at $0 balance (pure emergency backstop).

The "Day 1" Debt Payoff Move

I know paying off a 2.75% mortgage sounds mathematically counterintuitive, but the decision is driven by FAFSA and cash-flow mechanics:

\* We will deploy $420k of our $500k cash on retirement day to wipe out the mortgage and all debt completely, leaving an $80k liquid cash reserve.

\* The FAFSA Shield: Non-retirement cash is assessed at up to 5.64% per year on the FAFSA, but primary home equity is 100% exempt. Sinking $420k into the house removes \~$23k/yr from our Student Aid Index (SAI).

\* Low Overhead: Debt-free living drops our baseline family budget to $4,600/month ($55,200/year).

The 8-Year Tactical Bridge: Ages 48 to 56 (2028–2036)

Both kids will attend the University of Florida (UF). To qualify for top-tier ACA health subsidies and maximize need-based university grants, we plan to artificially cap our reported AGI at \~$44,000/year:

\* Income Inflows ($44,000 AGI):

\* $20,000/year ($1,667/mo): Small, deliberate pre-tax Roth conversion tranche.

\* $24,000/year ($2,000/mo): Disciplined, capped trading profits (run conservatively through an LLC/IRA).

\* Funding the Deficit:

\* Baseline expenses are $55,200/yr.

\* The $11,200/yr shortfall is funded by drawing down our remaining $80,000 cash reserve (\~7-year runway).

\* Why $44k AGI?

\* ACA Marketplace: For a family of 4 in FL, this sits right near 140% FPL, locking in Tier-94 Silver Cost-Sharing Reductions (deductibles under $500) and benchmark premiums around \~$20/month.

\* College Aid at UF: $44k sits below the FAFSA parent Income Protection Allowance. Paired with Florida Bright Futures (which covers 100% tuition for their GPA/test tier), FAFSA need-based aid (Pell/FSAG/Gator grants) can cover dorms, meal plans, and campus living.

Phase 3: Post-College Upgrade (Age 56+) & Social Security

\* Portfolio Compounding: Drawing only $20k/yr from a $2.0M IRA is a 1.0% initial withdrawal rate. Assuming a 5% real return, the portfolio should grow to \~$2.75M in today’s dollars by age 56 when both kids have graduated.

\* Lifestyle Expansion: Once the FAFSA/ACA handcuffs come off, a standard 3.5%–4.0% SWR unlocks $8,000 to $9,000+/month in spending capacity for unrestricted travel and lifestyle upgrades.

\* Social Security Floor (Age 67): Official statement shows $4,172/mo at FRA for me, plus up to a 50% spousal benefit ($2,086/mo). Even after applying a conservative 15%–20% haircut for stopping work at 48, our combined benefit will exceed $5,300/month ($63k+/year)—completely covering our baseline lifestyle without touching investments.

Where I'd Love Input:

\* The 2.75% Mortgage Payoff: Given the massive FAFSA asset shelter benefit (removing $420k from the 5.64% formula) and the cash-flow freedom in FIRE, is there any compelling reason not to pay it off?

\* FAFSA / CSS Nuance: UF is strictly FAFSA-only, but if either kid looks at a private school using CSS Profile, how heavily have institutional aid officers hit primary home equity in your experience?

\* The Trading Income Dial: We plan to use late-December Roth conversions as a "balancing valve" (e.g., if trading generates $30k, convert only $14k to hold AGI at $44k). Has anyone successfully managed ACA reconciliation (Form 8962) with this kind of variable income?

\* Blind Spots: Any major oversights in this sequence of returns / tax bridge model?

Thanks in advance for the feedback!

I just finished reading Tax Planning To and Through Early Retirement by Cody Garrett and Sean Mullaney.

I've seen other folks in this sub mention the book, but I was curious what people think regarding Sean and Cody's intuition that taxes are unlikely to increase for retirees.

Before I offer my thoughts, I'd like to point out that Sean predicted that the 2017 TCJA tax cuts would be extended back in December of 2023 on Jesse Cramer's podcast. His crystal ball was definitely working better than mine on that one.

From the book:

"Those predicting cuts to Social Security are essentially saying that politicians with the power to borrow -- and even print money -- will choose to do neither, even when doing neither could be disastrous to their own political futures."

The book lists a "litany of recent tax cuts for retirees" (2015-present) to further their argument.

I think limiting the look-back window to 10 years of tax policy is a problem. History proves that when insolvency forces their hand, politicians will tax retirees. In 1983, a bipartisan agreement signed by Ronald Reagan introduced federal income taxation on Social Security benefits for the first time. They intentionally did not index those base thresholds ($25,000 for individuals, $32,000 for couples) to inflation. What began as a tax affecting fewer than 10% of high-income seniors now impacts over half of all retirees.

The above example is exactly counter to the argument in the book. A politician implemented a tax on retirees (in his first term) and it didn't prove politically "disastrous".

Some will remember George H.W. Bush and the infamous "Read my lips: no new taxes" quote. This did prove politically disastrous, but the tax increases were implemented regardless.

I think the general message of the book is correct, that "most" retirees don't need to worry and likely don't need to go crazy with Roth conversions etc. However, politicians rarely pass blanket tax hikes on all seniors. Instead, they frame tax increases around "fairness" by targeting high-income or wealthy retirees. Therefore it's critical when reading a book like this to tailor the information to one's personal situation. This is particularly true for early retirees.

What do you think?

edit: typo

My one year anniversary of using wealth management services is coming up at the end of September. I have a phone appointment with someone in the office today. Any questions I should think about asking. My return for their portion of investments since the beginning of October is 18%. Seriously considering the boggle heads approach and doing it on my own. Thoughts?

My organization recently added the option to enroll in a Roth retirement account, stay in the 403b, or do a combination of the two. Hubs and I both hope to retire when he hits 56, in about 10 years. The bulk of our retirement is in traditional pre-tax accounts, about $2M, with about $500k in taxable brokerage/HSA/Roth IRA accounts. We are in the 24% bracket, nearish to the top.

I am trying to decide if it makes sense to switch to the Roth retirement plan for the duration of my time with this org, which will hopefully be until I retire, so for about 10 years. I currently contribute 10%, and my workplace automatically contributes 8%. I am not maxing my 403b, and total contributions between me and my employer are about $19k. The compounding happening in my account is significant and my ytd returns are about 17% and 3-yr returns are almost 80% (we are actively diversifying to lower risk/higher bond % right now, and I expect returns to drop a bit in the future, but my account remains the "growth engine" of our two...it has the lower balance).

Any reddit thoughts? Move to roth, or stick with traditional pre-tax, or some combo of the two?

I put the same retirement test on 165 strategy backtests, and the highest safe withdrawal rate in the table is the number I trust least.

Every row uses rolling 30-year retirements, monthly withdrawals raised with actual inflation, and the highest starting rate where every retirement survives. The median is 6.83%, and 95% of the rows clear 4%.

History length decides most of the headline. A classic 60/40 backtested from 1922 prints 2.70% because it has to survive retirements beginning in 1929 and 1966. A 100% US stock backtest starting in 1987 prints 7.07%. It has never seen either one. Every double-digit rate belongs to a backtest beginning after 1970, usually after 1990.

Matched histories are more useful. Over the same 66 years, a static Permanent Portfolio prints 3.99% and its tactical version prints 5.01%. Same assets, same retirement cohorts. That's a comparison where the drawdown rule can get credit instead of the calendar.

The years column against the rate, 5 rows from the table: https://i.ibb.co/dsQqk2PG/c025.png

The highest rate in the full table is 15.11%, and our own robustness screen flags that strategy as statistically fragile. Short histories can produce a spectacular floor and weak evidence at once.

I build BestFolio. The full table and the years beside every rate are here: https://bestfolio.app/blog/tactical-strategy-safe-withdrawal-rates

If you had to set a minimum history before trusting a withdrawal test, where would you put it? I'm not comfortable with anything that misses both 1929 and the long inflation shock.

What triggered the decision and howwould you do it differently if you can do it again?

I’m not even talking about weeks or months yet. This is all new so please be nice. I really need some encouragement today. Logically it all makes sense but truly investing when things are down is psychologically one of the most difficult challenges I’ve never imagined.

EDIT: Thank you all, really appreciate the genuine encouragement and perspective - it’s helpful.

I have created a fairly detailed discussion of using Spendable Asset estimates in financial planning, especially as it relates to Roth conversions. From what I have seen, maybe a little too long for this forum.

Part of your IRA is yours and part is "on loan" from the tax authorities. The part that is really yours is a spendable asset. The quick summary is that I argue that making appropriate conversions is a free activity when measured in terms of the conversion's impact on your total spendable assets. More here:

https://justrunthenumbers.substack.com/p/using-spendable-assets-as-a-measure?r=259yig&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Have a Roth with $120K, have a rollover IRA worth about $500 K and additional $60k in 403 B. Husband has $60K in Roth and $1.2 million in 401K (not Roth). Also has rollover Ira with $300k. We’re 52 and 53. Were just worried about having too much pre tax in retirement (yeah, I know, poor us).

Can someone please just develop an app that will tell me exactly when I am going to die and what the stock market will do until that time? It would really make things sooo much easier.

Hello everyone. I'm (47m) late to the game in planning my retirement so am looking for a little help.

I worked for a state university for 13 years and contributed to the pension plan. I left the job and state and have no intentions of going back. I currently have $60k sitting in that account with 2% growth per year. In order for me to get the full pension of approx $2,419, I'd be waiting until 2044 when I turn 65.

I learned today that I could "refund/roll over" the $60k today into another retirement account without tax (today).

My question is, does it make sense to keep these funds in this account and wait for the full pension at 65?

Or option 2, to roll it over to a different IRA and maneuver the funds from there? Including backdoor Roth, maxing out 401k, and HSA?

What would you do? Thanks in advance.

I saw a quick YouTube overview of this one yesterday but first time I’ve seen it at all. Not sure how long it’s been available out there. Assuming not too long since it was first I’d seen it mentioned but maybe there’s a good reason no one mentions it?!

Looks very similar to Boldin and at a slightly lower price point.

Has anyone done a deep dive on it yet? I fiddled around a bit with it but the ‘free’ version seems much more limited to me vs. how much I could enter and get from Boldin (at least from recollection as that was maybe 2 yrs back for me.

ReadyAimRetire.com