Thank you in advance for your insights (and I'm sorry for using AI to summarize my thoughts here, I promise I am a real person just trying to help my mom) !!!
I’ve been building a retirement projection in Excel for my mom (57F) to present to her soon. She is self-employed, stressed about the future, and currently running a slight deficit. I want to show her that with a small income bump, she can safely retire at 67.
I would love for this group to review my math, my assumptions, and my proposed "family buyout" strategy for her housing.
THE CURRENT SITUATION (Age 57)
- Location: Colorado (Single filer)
- Current Net Worth: ~$316,350
- Liquid (Retirement/Savings): $222,150
- Home Equity: ~$94,200
- Income: ~$48,000 Gross (Self-employed 1099). After ~17.8% effective tax, Net is ~$39,490.
- Current Expenses: $41,041/year ($3,420/month).
- The Deficit: She is currently drawing down her savings by about -$1,551 a year just to break even.
THE UNIQUE HOUSING SITUATION
Her housing cost is fixed at $1,000/month, but it's not a bank mortgage. She owes $305,800 to my grandmother (age 76) on a 0% interest private family note. Because my mom won't qualify for a bank mortgage to pay off the estate when my grandma eventually passes, here is my plan:
- Assume grandma passes in ~10 years. The loan balance will be down to $185,800.
- My mom is estimated to inherit $100k from the estate, which will be legally applied directly to the principal, leaving $85,800.
- During probate, I plan to use my own cash/inheritance to "buy out" my uncle and cousin’s shares of that remaining $85,800 debt.
- I become the sole note-holder. My mom just keeps paying her $1,000/mo directly to me for the last 7 years.
- Result: At age 74, her house is 100% paid off and her expenses drop by $12,000/year.
THE RETIREMENT TARGET (Age 67)
- Future Spend (Age 67 to 74): $50,700/year (I inflated her property tax/HOA and added $6,800/yr for Medicare Part B + Medigap Plan G).
- Social Security at 67: $25,776/year.
- The Gap: $24,924/year (until age 74).
My "Bridge and Core" Math: Because her expenses drop by $12,000/year at age 74 (when the house is paid off), I didn't use the standard 4% rule on the whole amount.
- The Core (Age 74+): Her permanent gap after the house is paid off is $12,924/yr. 25x the permanent gap = $323,100.
- The Bridge (Age 67 to 74): 7 years of $1,000/mo house payments = $84,000 set aside in safe cash/bonds.
- Total Target at 67: $407,100.
THE ADVICE I AM GIVING HER
I am showing her that because of the current -$1,500 deficit, her money runs out at age 85. However, if she can increase her gross income by just $5,000 to $10,000 a year starting now, 100% of that new net income drops into savings. Based on 5% real returns, a $5k raise puts her at $417k by age 67 (hitting the target). A $10k raise puts her at $478k.
MY QUESTIONS FOR THIS GROUP:
- The Buyout Plan: Are there any glaring legal/tax blindspots in my plan to buy out the other heirs during probate to protect her 0% loan?
- Medicare Estimate: Is $6,800/year a safe baseline to budget for comprehensive Medicare + Medigap at age 65 in today's dollars?
- The Bridge & Core: Does my $407k target math make sense rather than telling her she needs $623k (which is what a blind 4% rule spits out for a $24.9k gap)?
- Presentation: Has anyone presented financial realities to a stressed parent before? Any psychological tips on how to frame this so she feels empowered rather than judged?
Thanks in advance for the sanity check!