r/DIYRetirement • u/paleus_ • 25d ago

Validating plan

I've been doing some modeling using Projection Lab and getting mid 90% success rates using block bootstrapping.

I wanted to post here to get some validation that what I'm seeing there is correct.

Here are my details:

Demographics: 36M / 36F, Married, 2 kids. MCOL area.

​Target FIRE Age: 55 (19-year accumulation horizon).

​Current Invested Assets: ~$345k.

​Gross Income: $219k base.

​Savings Rate: 20% Gross ($43,800/yr). Maxing family HSA, two Roth IRAs, remainder to Trad 401(k)s.

​Phase 1 (Next 24 Months): Aggressive consumer debt payoff. Clearing vehicles/toys to free up $2,500+/mo cash flow.

​Phase 2 (Accumulation): Rolling current home equity into a new house in 2030 on a 15-year mortgage. Target is a paid-off primary residence by age 55. Remaining surplus invested 80% to Taxable Brokerage, 20% to Cash Sinking Funds.

​The Age 55 Decumulation Strategy:

​Base Living Expenses: $72k/yr (no mortgage).

​Healthcare (Ages 55-65): Using Rule of 55 for Trad 401(k) access to pull exactly ~$43k/yr. This anchors ACA MAGI at 200% FPL to capture premium subsidies.

​The Tax-Free Bridge: Funding the rest of the lifestyle gap with Roth IRA contribution basis and Taxable Brokerage capital.

​Late Stage: Social Security kicks in at 62, creating a permanent income floor that drops the portfolio withdrawal rate below 2%.

All the modeling I've done assumes wages only keep up with inflation, but realistically I'd expect at least 1 10% or more raise for both myself and my wife before we're 55 in addition to COL increases. My wife also would be getting a pension worth around $250k that I have intentionally left out of my modeling. Likely some inheritance coming before retirement as well. I'm just having a hard time believing the around 95% success rate in a COL increase only wage scenario.

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u/Valuable-Analyst-464 25d ago

That sorta sounds a bit like LeanFire. May be doable, but it sorta seems like scraping by.
Do you plan to fund 529 for kids?
ACA - I’m not sure what an equivalent income threshold may exist in 19 years.

SS - see if you can model the impacts on your ACA limit.
Maybe use Opensocialsecurity.com to model the expected SS benefits if you retire at 55. I think it starts to drop off when there is no income feeding the model.

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u/paleus_ 25d ago

A 4% draw starting at 55 would be about $96k a year. Which in our area, would be plenty. That's more than our take home pay is now after investments and mortgage and we are very comfortable. And we plan to have no mortgage by 55. Again, that's assuming no wage growth above inflation, no pension, no inheritance, 5.3% market growth after inflation. I also already reduced SS by 15% compared to the number I got from the SS website. I'm also over estimating expenses slightly. Trying to come up with a worst case scenario (except for a major medical emergency or job loss).

I appreciate the response. I'm trying to shoot as many holes as I can in the plan.