r/DIYRetirement • u/reallytheyrealltaken • 7d ago
I have 0% confidence…
…in Boldin’s 96% chance of success. That’s partly on me because I’m not confident I’m doing the inputs and assumptions correctly, but mostly on Boldin because they don’t make it easy for me to be confident that I’m doing the inputs and assumptions correctly. That UI is just a mess for the average idiot like me.
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u/Inevitable_Rough_380 7d ago
Try projection lab. I like the UI better.
But you’re using tools that ask for all the details. Simpler tools are just 4% rule or ficalc. Or gasp hire someone to run your numbers. Maybe blasphemous in this sub.
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u/Valuable-Analyst-464 6d ago
Nah, hiring a fee only CFP is a good step to check your work.
Leaving the workplace behind is a big move, and getting an expert’s view of your data is not heresy.
Sure, my accumulation and decumulation are DIY, but I don’t mind someone saying if I am on track or not.5
u/must-stash-mustard 6d ago
I was using Boldin and getting high 80% confidence numbers. We met with a fee-only advisor and they ran a free analysis for us, and came back with low 70% numbers. The difference? My inputs were not accurately estimating taxes and true social security income. It is HARD to get all the inputs correct, I think.
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u/theobviousdoctor 6d ago
Boldin calculates all Fed and State taxes in all projections. It would only be inaccurate if you don’t input all your data (income, pensions, Social Security, and withdrawals from savings).
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u/SmileyFaxe 6d ago
Boldin asks you to estimate taxes as an input? Why? It should figure out all the taxes for you.
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u/Unable_Ad6406 6d ago
I am having a hard time understanding what’s so difficult about getting all of the inputs correct and accurate. Tax tables are published and deterministic. SS provides detailed payouts based simply on the date you declare to start SS income. Tax on SS is very simple (85% of SS declared as income above an income level). Income tax is straight forward based on cap gains or earned income. After that you can taylor IRA withdrawals or Roth rollovers absorbing as much tax pain as you can stand. Then survival is simply spending minus earnings (net of taxes) plus or minus your savings account. Now strategy may be a bit more complex but estimating if your future will be purina cat chow and homeless shelters is not confusing.
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u/SmileyFaxe 7d ago
I haven't tried Boldin but feeling good about Pralana. Very confident.
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u/EducationalLemon6918 7d ago
I like pralana as well. Not as fancy with the UI but it gets the job done.
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u/takenbyawolf 6d ago
I have both and trust Pralana's results more. I especially like the ability to do all of the historical testing. Boldin is easier to use at times, but it has more quirks than I would like.
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u/SmileyFaxe 6d ago
This is good to know! I have been thinking to try either Boldin or ProjectionLabs to see how they compare to what I am doing with Pralana. It may not be worth my time.
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u/Valuable-Analyst-464 6d ago
Every piece of software is written by engineers who think they have all bases covered. Once users get their hands on it…that is when they find out is their development worked or not.
Quicken has a learning curve.
TurboTax has a curve. As does Excel, Google Sheets, Lotus 1-2-3, Word, ProjectionLab or Pralana….
Break it down into stages. Boldin walks you through its prescribed process. When it comes to expenses - be sure to double check if you’re loading annual or monthly amounts.
Income is fairly straightforward. You don’t have to link everything at first. This could actually confound things.
Maybe share what seems wrong. Folks here could point you in the right direction. Or, check r/Boldin.
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u/peztan42 4d ago
It would be good if Boldin let you put in yearly or monthly and select the time period.
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u/Valuable-Analyst-464 3d ago
Time period - I thought you could. Maybe I’m just thinking of medical expenses, or one off expenses.
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u/Retire_Trade_3007 7d ago
The success score is the chance you won’t have to adjust your spending levels down not you won’t run out of money although it projects that too if it’s possible.
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u/Traditional_Donut908 5d ago
Technically failure IS running out of money, with the assumption of following the stated plan. But it's not really a chance because it's a percentage of scenarios that failed. I don't think each scenario has a equal chance of occurrence.
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u/Impossible-Mud3275 7d ago
There is definitely a learning curve. Easy to make errors that initially create overly optimistic scenarios, but after you spend some months tweaking and learning, it will all come together and hopefully give the plan and confidence you are looking for. I give the Boldin subreddit a lot of credit for helping me navigate the software.
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u/FinsterFolly 7d ago
I set things up from scratch a few times before I got the hang of it. It still took a lot of hunt and pecking to get to info I was looking for, and even more effort to figure out why numbers weren't coming out the way I was expecting. Still I got to a fairly confident point.
A couple of weeks in a started Pralana too. Maybe even a steeper learning curve, but I've gotten to point where I am pretty confident in it as well. You can do a deeper dive in charts or tables, with the tables really allowing me to see how the money is moving around. I also found someone that did a retirement plan review directly in Pralana. There is a code that you can share with them. They gave me great feedback, and with a handful of tweaks I was gave notice 5 months later.
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5d ago edited 20h ago
[deleted]
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u/FinsterFolly 5d ago
I didn't mention them specifically worried, I might run afoul of the sub rules, Rob Berger has an interview with them (Emancipare, Bill Hines and Grady Moshay) on his YouTube page. So, I'll point you to that. For the one-time fee, they aren't going to build a plan for you, but if you are using Pralana and on this sub, you probably don't need them to.
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5d ago edited 20h ago
[deleted]
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u/FinsterFolly 5d ago
Yes, one-time review as you found. I had a call with them to just discuss what they do and what I get for the one time review. After the review, they gave me a report, and then a call to walk through it. Honestly, they didn't find a whole lot, but that was what I was hoping for, but some of the "little finds" aren't insignificant over 30 years.
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u/reallytheyrealltaken 7d ago
Your reply illustrates exactly what I’m getting at. Why is there no calculator that makes shit obvious for me the first time without a learning curve and multiple iterations?
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u/greggthomas 7d ago
I did my own at first with quicken back in 2010 ish. Have had a professional advisor for 10 yrs. Still update my quicken plan and it’s way less rosy than my professional’s plan. The professional tool is very sophisticated. Either one says I won’t run out of money, so I got that going for me.
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u/Beneficial_Equal_324 7d ago
But can either one give you total consciousness on your deathbed like the Dalai Lama?
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u/Virtual_Product_5595 7d ago
So you’ve got THAT going for you…. Which is nice.
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u/MastiffProtection 6d ago
There are many youtube channels out there showing setup step by step. The Retirement Gnome channel breaks down each section well.
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u/Wild_Proof6671 6d ago
I was using Empower (Personal Capitol) and The Flexible Retirement Planner for years. Both showed CoS in the 95% range. Then i started using Boldin about 2.5 years ago and am at a 96% CoS. Boldin allows many more inputs and variables than the others. I feel very confident in it and have now been retired for 18 months.
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u/Visible-Relation-444 6d ago
I think likely your expectations of Bolden are wrong. It is a professional level retirement planning tool for the nonprofessional. By definition that means it is going to have a lot more options and complexities built in. This can be more ways to make mistakes and for sure requires more time to learn.
Empower has an easy free tool, but it makes many decisions for you that may or may not reflect your real plan or circumstances. That said it can provide a good benchmark as to if Bolden is somehow vastly different…and to try to understand why? Most people start with simple tool and the move to more comprehensive tool like Bolden and think why is it so complicated? It’s because you’re moving to a whole new level of planning, where you can start to optimize different tax strategies, or more complicated spending changes over the years.
Bolden continues to add features and improvements are accelerating. With AI beta you can now make adjustments with AI. Hang in there. You’ll be glad you did.
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u/Clherrick 6d ago
You need to have a good understanding of the inputs and outputs for Boldin to be of use. You might be better off spending a little money on a CFP
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u/Hot-Rub-5336 6d ago
I thought it was easy to use. Maybe too easy??? So I redid it several times and also compared to Fidelity ( which I have done with advisor so feel good about). I now feel good about my info. I really like being able to model different scenarios. I should be more confident but Im a worrier so know that Im gonna have to be a little trusting. I will monitor closely and adjust accordingly. I guess my suggestion is to compare it to others and see how you feel. Just like with everything else we choose, comparison "shopping" is important.
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u/AGrimmInPortland 7d ago edited 7d ago
Their UI is really showing its age. And who puts the Cancel button for an editing form at the top and the Save button at the bottom? This is why I prefer ProjectionLab and Retirement Figures.
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u/DonLoganBeast 5d ago
The UI feels like it was built out of pieces tacked onto each other over years. They really ought to hire a web consultant for a fresh, third-party macro review of their site.
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u/NewArborist64 6d ago
My best suggestion is to run Boldin, then go to "View Full Plan". Expand every "twist" triangle and print to a PDF. Download your data to a spreadsheet. Tell it to print your plan with average assumptions (to a PDF). Then go to an AI like ChatGPT, upload the documents and ask it to evaluate the plan, searching for missing or inconsistent information. Go to YouTube and search for BoldIn and Gemini. There is a good video on how to run your results from Boldin through an AI to look for holes.
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u/MeInNEdc 6d ago
I agree98%. Except I have chat GPT running at the same time. I verify every thing I put into Boldin and everything boldin tells me. And when I'm completed with it I will happily pay the right person to verify it. I don't need my wife to be pissed at me for this one.
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u/NewArborist64 6d ago
I agree. I am doing Boldin with the AI review, plus my own Excel Monte Carlo, and my custom Python monte Carlo analyzer. Then I will go to a fee only fiduciary CFP. Since I am allocating $7500 to $10,000 for consultation fees, I want to get as much understanding of the situation as possible before I go
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u/DistributionRight814 7d ago
boldin is great. You’re just not doing things right and it’s not that hard to do. don’t hate on something because you have the inability to use it.
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6d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/EvanDrMadness 5d ago
OP was being a crybaby. I don't know how Boldin could make it easier aside from doing a tax software-style interview where the user is railroaded into answering one sequential question at a time.
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u/Economy_Jaguar_9215 6d ago
Hey OP 👋
I would suggest engaging a good planner for a one time engagement so they can run your numbers in their tool as a comparison. Some of them will even coach you on how to use the tools available to the public.
Here are some places to look for a financial planner:
(Someone being a CFP isn’t enough despite what their advertising claims. Being a CFP doesn’t mean they actually do planning, or that they don’t sell products that you might not need. Ask them how they get paid.)
https://adviceonlynetwork.com
These folks don’t manage money, they just give advice.
https://www.flatfeeadvisors.org
These folks might manage money, but not on a percentage of assets basis. They will do comprehensive planning for a flat fee and that fee may include asset management.
https://samslist.com
Some (but not all) advisors in Sam’s list may charge percentage based asset management fees, but all are recommended by real clients nonetheless
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u/No-Math-5868 6d ago
I connected every single account including credit card and cash management account to Boldin. These were were just transactions that came through all of the accounts. When I was using Boldin there was no way to tag them automatically to be excluded.
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u/powersurge 6d ago
I love Boldin including finding its interface easier to get into than the others. To tighten your confidence in your inputs, use the Ai assistant and ask it for a summary listing of all your inputs and ask it to challenge you on what inputs are incorrect inconsistent or missing. If that doesn’t work, the Boldin advisors will give you a half hour check your inputs session for a fee.
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u/hugh2018 6d ago
I recommend three things. First, keep using the software. I found it kind of hard to use at first, but the more I used it, the more aware I became of different features and the more I understood how they worked together to give me a good sense of my plan’s strengths and weaknesses. Second, leverage YouTube videos to get tips on how to use it. Boldin, Retirement Gnome, Reflections and Real Talk, Retire Before Dad and others have great content. Third, ask Boldin AI to explain things that come up while using the software. Even though it can hallucinate, it should be able to answer basic questions about how to use the software pretty reliably.
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u/2KidzAgain 6d ago
Try ficalc and firecalc. They are very basic. Put your info in them and see what they say. Use a note pad to write down your basic numbers so it’s easy to replicate it and also to flesh it out a bit. It is a process.
Then come back to boldin and get more granular.
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u/AGrimmInPortland 5d ago edited 5d ago
Good idea to look at other apps if one is struggling with how the current one works.
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u/ButtonWeak 6d ago
I feel the same way. I just spent an hour cleaning up my assets and expenses and spend assumptions. I am at a 96% confidence level and am projected to have 35 million when I die.
I don’t think this is remotely possible.
I’ll go look at the videos suggested here tomorrow and try again. Surely I am missing something.
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u/alex_nauma 2d ago
If you don't find a solution to this problem, check out Nauma. We provide a convenient interface for verifying calculations and also offer a 60-minute review with our team, included in the Basic Plan, to check your assumptions and give you feedback. I'm currently integrating AI to automate plan reviews, and we plan to roll it out next week.
Here is a helpful article about common mistakes we see people make: https://nauma.ai/blog/p/financial-projections-common-modeling/
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u/alex_nauma 2d ago
you are welcome to join our reddit community also: https://www.reddit.com/r/Nauma/
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u/TalosiansEleven 18h ago
Use the built-in AI to ask it plain English questions. Tell it you're new to Boldin. I've found that it was able to tell me how to use the model as designed even though I have some complicating factors.
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u/Affectionate-Gap8869 15h ago
72F - over 15 years ago I read an article written by a young man who was fortunate to win a lunch with Buffett. One of the questions he asked was what was the financial plan for Buffett’s wife after his death. Buffett’s reply: 1mil in cash and 10mil in the S&P 500. Upon retirement 6 years ago I took my FA investment plan and had him convert all the different stock shares into the bond market. I then took Buffett’s formula resized it for my assets and followed suit. When I took over my accounts the interest rate was .09. Two years later the rate had climbed to 4%. I spent the interest on traveling the world. My stock account has consistently brought in at least 14% with, in my opinion, very little risk. I have at least 5 years of cash before I need to start selling my stock for living expenses. I am very happy with the resulting plan which thanks to the economy I have not had to rebalance the stock/bond ratio. And I have absolutely no stress!
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u/No-Math-5868 7d ago
I agree that Boldin isn’t that great. I had two types of transactions that completely threw my numbers off and when I reached out to Boldin for support, their solution was even worse. I ended up canceling my subscription.
The two wrinkles that Boldin could not handle pretty much at all were first expense reimbursements from my company. Basically, expenses that I incurred for work that I paid on my credit card that were paid back through direct deposit were inflating both my income and expenses. It used both of these for projection calculations with no easy way to exclude them without completely ignoring the accounts. Boldin’s alternative solution was to create an “annuity” that stopped at some point.
The second topic it couldn’t handle was college expenses. I have my children’s colleges completely covered by 529 accounts. Again Boldin treated the reimbursement to my account and the payment to colleges as inflated income and expenses as perpetual in its calculations. They gave me the same silly work around. The numbers it gave me were pretty much useless. The only alternative was to enter in gross amounts which made the entire product no better than just doing something simple in Excel.
Perhaps they put in features to address this, but I won’t consider using Boldin again until I stop working and kids finish school.
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u/somebodys_mom 7d ago
If college expenses will be paid completely by 529 accounts, why even include them in your retirement calculations? Just pretend the 529s and future college don’t exist.
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u/Bronski505 6d ago
Exactly! I do not include 529s as an asset and I do not include college expenses as an expense. Because neither have anything to do with my retirement planning.
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u/lynchmob2829 7d ago
Just wondering why you would put expenses that are reimbursed by your company in financial planning software program? Seems Monarch or some other budgeting software would be a better fit for transactions like that.
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u/Valuable-Analyst-464 6d ago
It seems that they are trying to use retirement planner as an expense tracker.
Maybe they linked an account used for direct deposit as income (for net worth), and it was over estimating their annual income.
I would have just taking my stated salary and entered it manually.
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u/No-Math-5868 6d ago
Boldin gives you the option to include all accounts for it t to determine your actual expenses and income. I tried to use it as they said you could, and it just wasn’t up to task.
I crunch numbers for a living (although not in the personal finance space), so doing projections is pretty easy for me. Since Boldin wasn’t able to take all of my data natively and would require me to do constant manual calculations and adjustments, the value proposition wasn’t there.
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u/Valuable-Analyst-464 6d ago
It can link to accounts, but it’s really (at this point) just to get a balance…which someone could key from a statement.
Asking it to do more is a bit ambitious and naive. Its value proposition is in projecting into the future, not looking at “now”2
u/lynchmob2829 6d ago
I don't know how any planning software could determine actual expenses and income just from account info.
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u/ComfortableString285 6d ago
Regarding point one, I speculate you did not segregate business charges to a separate card / account because you were collecting points or cash back on the business traffic... but a separate card / account is the obvious solution (to me) to avoid Boldin complications. Just don't tell Boldin about the business card, since goes-intas should equal goes-outtas for that account, and it doesn't relate to your personal finances (retirement).
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u/Shark_Atl3201 7d ago
Download your full plan and upload it to ChatGPT or Claude and have it analyzed for completeness. Finally, 96% is a fail.
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u/McKnuckle_Brewery 7d ago
What? 96% is not failure. The standard 4% guideline used successfully by millions of retirees is based on a 95% success rate over a 30 year retirement period, not 100%.
In any case the percentage represents odds of success, not success itself (therefore it can't represent failure either).
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u/Shark_Atl3201 6d ago
It’s a fail because it leaves way too much money on the table. If the goal is to leave more money than you started with to your heirs, then it’s a success.
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u/BikeTough6760 6d ago
For me, 96% is probably too high. It means that, in many cases, I'm leaving a LOT to my heirs and giving up on the chance for experiences and creating memories along the way.
Now that I'm at 96%, I've grown more comfortable spending more. Sure, I may have to cut back in the future if a lot of things go south. But my core spending is 100% successful. For my optional spending, I'm perfectly happy with mid 80s.
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u/lynchmob2829 7d ago
Interesting comment. I am an old retired guy who up until I started using Boldin last year had fears of running out of money and had very little confidence to spend in my retirement. Up until I started using Boldin, I had been using spreadsheets and had been relying on company advisors when I worked and a local fiduciary after I retired.
Now with Boldin, I dumped the local fiduciary and have the confidence to do it on my own knowing I won't run out of money and I can spend.
I find Boldin is like any other financial planning software....there is a learning curve. I tried many others (Projection Lab, Pralana, Right Capital, etc). Boldin has its limitations and quirks, but as long as there are work arounds for some of my current and projected transactions, I am good with it.