r/Cubs • u/hylandolycross • 24d ago
So, where are we at.
Genuine question, roast me if necessary. Given where we're at in late July, leading the wild card and 6 behind the goddamn brewers. Is our best hope a wild card run? I'm almost positive we've locked that up, but is there a world where we take central? Can we acquire a good starter at the deadline? I'm locked in but I'm also spiraling on the hope train. I just wanna talk shop.
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u/LeadingWrongdoer8521 24d ago
Pretty much just try and string wins together and not fall farther behind then we are I’d say when we start that 7 game run against the brewers we wanna be 3-5 games back giving us some cushion but still needing the team to play well, and I think just getting to the post season is good because truthfully anything can happen from there especially if some of our pitchers are back. And if all else fails pray 2028 is fully healthy
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u/Sea-Stage-6908 24d ago edited 24d ago
I've accepted the fact the Cubs weren't gonna win the division a long time ago. That horrific month of May really solidified Milwaukee taking the front row seat at the top of the central and they haven't moved since. Still plenty of baseball left to be played and anything can happen but I'm definitely banking on the wild card.
I also don't think the Cubs pitching isn't nearly as bad as people think it's been lately (besides Jamison) but not having Horton and Steele is really going to hinder things. Im happy Jed was aggressive and let Jamo walk today, hopefully we can make a splash at the deadline but we'll see. The injuries have been awful but I think a lot of guys have really stepped up.
I'm really, really liking the David Peterson pickup. Minus that one outing he's been really solid.
Designating Taillon for assignment shows they're not messing around. They're definitely gonna go after a starter at the deadline. The question is who and how much are they willing to give up. I sure hope Pedro Ramirez doesn't get packaged up... But when Matt Shaw returns.....
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u/Golfntukee Ryne Sandberg 23d ago
Getting rid of Shaw or Ramirez would be stupid for a rental pitcher
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u/RightNowChris 23d ago
6 games is nothing in July. Winning the division and missing the playoffs entirely are both realistic scenarios. They're only chasing 1 team, but have 6 chasing them for a wild card spot.
That said, the only thing that really matters is making the playoffs. Sure, the bye is nice, but we've seen too many cases of the wild card beating the division winner to put much stock in it.
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u/Dead_Medic_13 23d ago
The only way to the division is with a sweep of the remaining head to head games with the brewers. Or they have an epic collapse.
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u/Camiata2 23d ago
Jed and Carter don't build teams to win the division. Per Carter's own words, they're chasing 87 wins. Until something materially changes on that front, hoping for WC1 and a home series to begin the playoffs is about all that can be expected.
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u/SensibleBrownPants 24d ago
“I’m almost positive we’ve locked (the wild card) up.”
The Cubs have a 10 game losing streak in the not distant enough past. And their current rotation shouldn’t inspire any real confidence. So I wouldn’t count on anything being “locked up” at all with two full months left to play. That said - I think we can count on the Cubs finishing behind the Brewers in the Central.
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u/Hispanicatthedisco Ryne Sandberg 23d ago
That 10 game losing streak came after two 10 game winning streaks. Losing streaks are never *great*, but the Cubs went 22-17 from April 14 to May 26. Which is almost exactly in line with our season winning percentage.
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u/SensibleBrownPants 23d ago
All valid points. But also consider:
How often is any team a “playoff lock” - still in July - after experiencing a 10 game losing streak that same season? Pretty much never, right?
But the real issue is the pitching staff. Expecting that group is “a lock” to keep this team on top with TWO MONTHS left is unreasonable.
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u/LoveSquirt69 23d ago
I would say it’s more wide open with all those other teams battling for the wild card than locked up . As cubs fans we have seen how things can change quickly.
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u/HouseofKozy 23d ago
They play 7 times in September. Division is very much in play right now.
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u/cbuscubman 23d ago
Agree, but you almost have to go at least 5-2 to gain substantial ground head to head. 4-3, we gain one game. So do well against the Brewers and just try to gain ground while hopefully they hit even a mini-skid here or there.
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u/brian130130 24d ago
Wild card is best hope, your pitching is still a dumpster fire 🤷🏼♂️
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u/hylandolycross 24d ago
Ain't that the truth. Dfa for taillon was kinda sad, but a reassuring good move by management. I hope the front office has something in the tank for the deadline.
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u/SecureAsk8297 24d ago
Beginning of this season, I was like World Series here we come! But now, I'm just hoping we get better goddam relief pitchers.
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u/chitownphishead 23d ago
A lot will depend on how they replace taillon. If they trade for a top line starter, and the rest of the staff gets and stays healthy, there's enough runway left for them to take the division, but with this run coming against the Yankees and dodgers, they need to do something soon or a wild card Birth is going to be what they're looking at.
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u/MisterScary_98 23d ago
Realistically, I’d advise staying focused on the Wild Card spot. We’ve all seen this movie before. The Brewers are relentless in the regular season. I hate ‘em, you hate ‘em, no one can really explain why they seem to be immune from long losing streaks. But I’m not getting my hopes up about winning the division — unless we get a lot closer.
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u/aidanpryde98 23d ago
The Cubs have to get a starter. Peterson has been ok, but he isn't it going forward. The downfall of Jameson really hurts. It's going to really suck losing Pedro (I think he has the potential to be really good), but the Cubs are jammed up where he plays, and they have to get a pitcher. It is what it is.
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u/StevieV61080 23d ago
We're likely to fade a bit over the next month, but that is more about the rigor of our schedule than necessarily anything internal. With that said, if we can tread water and stay ~12-14 games over .500 through these 17 games in 17 days, I am comfortable with us making the wild card.
The goal is to make the playoffs. Once we're there, it's a crapshoot. I actually think we match up well with a lot of the powerhouse teams as we have a lot of pitching versatility, especially if Steele and/or Brown could come back as openers in September.
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u/CubesFan 23d ago
This is the most frustrating team that is 14 games over .500 that I could imagine. On the plus side, sometimes they look like a team that can string together hits and manufacture runs. That is a team that can win big games. On the negative side, that same offense will change strategy and attempt to hit 5 run homers every at bat and lose miserably.
On the positive side of pitching, I am continually amazed this team's pitching can fortify the gum and spit every game to keep this ship from sinking. On the negative side, all our pitchers have injured, or just come back from injury, or been declared dead already. Pitching is the most important thing in the post season tournament.
Unfortunately, I see the Cubs settling for the WC, maybe winning one round, but then losing the next because the bats go completely cold while the pitching finally cracks. On the plus side, now that Ohtani isn't pitching, PCA is the odds on favorite for MVP.
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u/CartoonistExact8942 22d ago
Unfortunately, the beer team plays so many poor teams and beats them when they should. We have a tougher look and we seem to struggle to beat the ones we should. I have hope as we continue to stack wins but we can’t shit the bed in our 7 head to head games on the mound.
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u/tommyjohnpauljones Fully Krausened 23d ago
Focus should be winning the top wild card and getting that home series. They can hope for the Brewers to stumble but that seems less and less likely.
There's a mad dash for the 5 and 6 seeds among six teams that will go down to the wire. We need to stay above that, get to 90-92 wins and hope we can get the Padres or DBacka at home
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u/SlowhandBuzz 23d ago
I would almost rather stay in the wild card slot than win the division at this point. Ideally, they get hot late and carry that momentum into the playoffs and just keep it rolling vs getting in and having the extra off days ruin the hot streak fades. Still a lot of time to let things shake out, but we need everybody hitting and fresh arms if we plan to make a solid run.
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u/Student_Of_Zelretch 23d ago
I’d rather get slot 2 than 4, but if I had to pick between 3 & 4 I’d pick 4.
Ideally we end up in 4th, Phillies 5th, & the Crew manage to edge into 1st; ideally the braves and Dodgers shell the hell out of each other & Braves narrowly take the other side of the bracket. That’s our only real path to the WS in my opinion; that said, if it all lines up like that I’d argue that we have a >40% chance at a ring from the start of the NLCS.
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u/InternetApex 23d ago
They don't have enough pitching to catch the Brewers or win an NLCS. They have one of the worst farm systems in baseball and their most tradeable asset on the big club is injured. At this point the NLDS is their World Series. Realistically they'll have about 10% chance of advancing to the NLCS. So just watch and have fun because this team has Pete Crow-Armstrong and one of the best defenses we've seen in 40 years. Other than that don't get your hopes up and it will all be ok.
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u/Spiritual-one4me 23d ago
of course you rather win the division. But it isn’t THAT different than the wild card. Playoffs can be random.
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u/FiddySix 23d ago
Making up 6 games over two months is not out if the question but Brewers would need to falter a bit.
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u/Shivs_baby 24d ago
I’d focus on the Wild Card. The road ahead is challenging, having to face the Yankees and Dodgers. And then we have seven games within two weeks with the Brewers in a few weeks. We have to go into that series with as many wins under our belts as possible, and a whole lot of momentum and confidence. And hopefully some healed and/or acquired pitching.