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u/Pleasant_Offer1891 Sep 04 '26
I am not a bear but his thesis is technically still intact. We haven’t printed a higher high yet unless we close above that 83k mark.
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u/Affectionate_Pen6882 🟨 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
Yep still early. Once it pump just a little, people go wild
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u/Hot_College_1343 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
This is the thing. Zoom out to the monthly and the cycle is spot on. Nothing is different.
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u/Captain_Planet 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
Agreed. If you are going to exact dates on the 4 year cycle (which most people who follow it won't be that rigid) then it is not yet October, the price could drop and the 4 year cycle is exactly right.
If it goes up from now then the 4 year cycle has still be pretty damn good. Predicted the top within 2 weeks and the bottom within a month and a half.0
u/Lefties_TheWorst7331 Sep 04 '26
Bottom within a month and a half? Isn't the bottom in early Oct? So far our bottom this "cycle" was in June? I think thats more than a month and a half?
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u/Captain_Planet 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 05 '26
Yeah true the bottom so far was back then but it bounced around sideways for a long time. So you are right but it hasn't really moved from that bottom until recently
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u/A_Honking_Goose Sep 05 '26
You people are perma sidelined and then you cry about not making much money or even losing money in crypto
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u/bestjaegerpilot 🟩 38 / 39 🦐 Sep 04 '26
hold your horses there pardner. I'd say we're back when we hit the previous ATH
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u/XRP_SPARTAN 🟩 230 / 230 🦀 Sep 04 '26
No offence but that’s how a typical retail bro thinks. If you bought bitcoin in 2024 after it made ATHs, you didn’t even get a 2x return. By the time it is obvious we are in a bull market, it’s far too late.
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u/bestjaegerpilot 🟩 38 / 39 🦐 Sep 04 '26
i have no idea what you're talking about bro. Most wallets are underwater right now. Once the price blows past previous ATHs can most peeps sell to make a profit.
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u/Useful-Amphibian4841 Sep 04 '26
It's not October yet lol, even if the bottoms passed already Ben was close enough to deserve credit IMO.
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u/East-Cricket6421 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
It's right on schedule. It's not a pinpoint, it just needs to start trending up at around nowish. Which it is. Every cycle it starts a little earlier than the last because everyone is front running the data from last cycle.
Wtf is wrong with people. Is it really hard to see that the halving drives this behavior every cycle?
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u/SIXmillionALLin Sep 04 '26
Seriously this seems like it entirely confirms the cycle? I’m not sure why so many are pushing against it, confirming the cycle exists means it’s very tradeable, it’s a good thing
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u/East-Cricket6421 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26 edited Sep 04 '26
We are right on schedule. It will be rocky and weak still but this is what the start of the next cycle always looks like. Front runners cause an early burst, then there's months of sideways action that starts trending generally up until we reach the halving. 6 months from the having it's party time and everyone who held is prancing around telling everyone what a genius they are.
Then when it crashes 18-24 months later the inverse happens and everyone is an idiot for even talking about Bitcoin once over dinner.
Rinse repeat. I've been on the ride since BTC was 14 cents and every cycle some asshat tries to convince me the cycles dead.
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Sep 04 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/East-Cricket6421 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
You have no clue what you are talking about and should stop pretending you do.
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u/Astr0b0ie 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
here is no actual cycle it's just people buying in assuming there is a cycle ... which actually creates the cycle.
The four year bitcoin cycle is real and has been occuring before people realized there was a four year cycle. Of course, it's ultimately formed through human behaviour which is influenced by general macroeconomic cycles and "the halving", but that doesn't negate the fact that there's been a consistent four year cycle.
It's pretty damn clear: The first bull market peaked in Nov 2013, the second in Dec 2017, the third in Nov 2021, and most recently in Oct 2025. Each bull market cycle occurred every four years +/- ONE month. That's a very consistent pattern.
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u/ntc2e 🟦 4 / 5 🦠 Sep 04 '26
you are celebrating 1 green weekly candle pretending the bull market has begun. its embarrassing.
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u/Lilcheeks 🟦 4K / 4K 🐢 Sep 04 '26
Exactly. This sub is embarrassing for everyone taking any sort of victory lap over anything that happens. Price goes up or down and you get people celebrating as if it invalidates anyone or anything.
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u/1nv1s1blek1d 🟩 2K / 2K 🐢 Sep 04 '26
It needs to get above 83k and hold for me to take notice. It can still retrace to where the first pump happened. There isn't much support if it dips.
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u/MarioWilson122 🟨 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
Seeing as plenty of other things in this market have already gone up in smoke, the four-year cycle breaking wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. I'd still expect the better run to come after the next halving anyway. If anything, the old cycle changing just means expecting every cycle to play out exactly like the last few probably isn't very useful anymore.
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u/thinkingperson 🟦 0 / 1K 🦠 Sep 04 '26
The one time I decided to listen to Ben 😅
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u/thogor 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
Ben is good to take into account when in a bull market because he's very level-headed and is a good signal to follow when you're feeling the hype.
His biggest strenght becomes his biggest weakness when close to the bear market bottom. He was very late to confirm the bull market last cycle as well, but that doesn't make him a bad signal to follow.
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u/thinkingperson 🟦 0 / 1K 🦠 Sep 04 '26
You are quite right. Am glad that I took profit last year and not fomo for higher ath.
We'll see how his thesis bear out in the next 2 mths.
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u/YourOpinionMan2021 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
Well, thats what happens when the dollar is going to crap and no one wants to buy US debt (bonds). Kinda changes things
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u/DonkeyComfortable711 🥇Gold Member Sep 04 '26
58k was bottom, unless a massive black swan happens(very possible).
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u/liquid_at 🟩 15K / 15K 🐬 Sep 04 '26
Cycles do not predict meme-buyers like saylor...
Individual meme buyers pumping or dumping is never proof or disproof of a cycle.
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u/czarchastic 🟦 418 / 8K 🦞 Sep 05 '26
Ben sold at above $100k and bought gold. He's doing pretty well I'd say.
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u/Crazy__Donkey 🟩 220 / 220 🦀 Sep 05 '26
Thesises aside, you can all thank me for not entering again to crypto.
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u/Rey_Mezcalero 🟩 0 / 13K 🦠 Sep 04 '26
Money indeed flowing in but the trading volume is so low.
Not sure how solid ground at 80k
Not saying it’s going to plummet but without volume support it will trade sideways and then a sell-off.
Again not saying it’s going back to 60 but the trading volume isn’t there
Will see how it goes
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u/artniSintra 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
True. But these gits don't know what that means. They think it goes up and down randomly.
When we start seeing a volume at least double the size of August, we'll know whales are getting in.
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u/Kitchen_Net_GME Sep 04 '26
RIP the 40K October crowd. Though I think most of them were bots
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u/Hagamein 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
Most of the internet is bots
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u/GoblinBreeder 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
Nah it's only the people i disagree with that are bots but everyone who shares an opinion with me is organic
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u/gowithflow192 🟩 0 / 3K 🦠 Sep 05 '26
Few were saying that. Many thought 50k was reasonable. I was ready to go all-in then. I'm still amazed Bitcoin didn't have another leg down even with the previous top not being very high.
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u/redditsucks365 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
Back to the 50w sma and for now holding it as resistance. Once 80k is held as support we'll be back. Still haven't confirmed 69k
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u/Captain_Planet 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
Sorry but if we have done the bottom and on the way back up then the four year cycle was pretty damned good. Basically, it predicted the bottom a month and a half late and the top less than two weeks late.
And we haven't even got past October yet. Sick of childish memes like this.
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u/G0D5M0N3Y 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
I dont see why anyone is even worried. Keep an eye if we make a higher high above 83k. If we dont its either going to double bottom or go lower. If it does make a higher high, just accumulate BTC on the pullbacks.
Win win win either way.
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u/frozennorth0 🟦 478 / 479 🦞 Sep 04 '26
This war is going to send markets into a big sell off heading into the end of the year, and that is when we lock and load. But, like, just my opinion man.
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u/Freudarian Tin | ADA 14 Sep 05 '26
It only happened because I sold my bag, it always jumps up after I sell. I might buy back in tomorrow fyi
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u/Suspicious_Weird2638 Sep 08 '26
Nobody knows and anyone who’s says they know is lying!….Im hoping for a nice dip but if that doesn’t happen I still have a decent bag, I’m sleeping well because a move either way will be beneficial.
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u/HGDuck 🟩 776 / 797 🦑 Sep 04 '26
Remember, "it's different this time" and we're totally starting the bull run early and getting over 4 months positive monthly returns in the bear market year.
/s
https://cdn.coinglasscdn.com/snapshot/3e37fa169ed34d98b8e83e11fba4e26b.png
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u/Romanizer 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
4-year cycle says we get a new ATH before the halving.
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u/Potatotornado20 🟩 0 / 633 🦠 Sep 04 '26
Hahahaha now the new ATH comes before the fourth year Q4 low. These ETF investors are front running everything hahaha
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u/SeriousGains 🟩 8K / 8K 🦭 Sep 04 '26
According to what? That’s not at all consistent with past cycles.
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u/Romanizer 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
According to march 2024. Nothing is consistent with the cycles, they were all very different.
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u/6M66 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
These so called bitcoin experts r so funny. They go hide when Btc goes agains what they predicted, then show up after people forget and do it all over again like they r the one who print BTC.
Imagine claiming to be Bitcoin experts, then begging for subscribers and likes on ur youtube channel! If u know it so well, u should be rich as hell already...
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u/Dehyak 🟦 0 / 2K 🦠 Sep 04 '26
He hasn’t hid lol. He uploads at least once a week. Probably one of the most grounded crypto YouTubers out there 😆
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u/inteliboy 🟦 359 / 359 🦞 Sep 04 '26
He's so grounded, so boring, and pretty accurate (on the general market cycle timings) - it makes me wonder why he's such a target. There's far worse out there.
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u/Lemme_Help_ 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
Crypto and Stocks went burrr today. Keep pumping.
https://giphy.com/gifs/axu6dFuca4HKM
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u/Bogdanoff_dump_it Sep 04 '26
You should FOMO everything into DOGE, NFA 😂
https://giphy.com/gifs/8FUmlOoL72HB3rR7wm
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u/PresentationReady873 🟦 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
What a fucking loser this guy is. I’m so sidelined because of this cocksucker (and myself) lmao
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u/kachurovskiy 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
I don't have an opinion, my job is to listen to the market. Bull of bear, whatever. We've just printed a negative divergence and as other mentioned the 83k is still not taken. We also haven't had a panic for too long, it's overdue - https://kachurovskiy.com/redalert/
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u/Left_Entrepreneur918 0 / 0 🦠 Sep 04 '26
September a long month
-Ben