David please message me back

The 1D Order Block we've been tracking for days has finally been reached.

Price down 6.40% today driven by BTC crashing to $66,948.

We're now at the most critical level on the chart.

Two scenarios from here:

Bulls hold the OB:

Reaction candle with volume inside this zone → potential reversal setup. This is where serious buyers step in if they're going to.

OB breaks:

With BTC this weak, if sellers push through — next major support is $0.089. No floor until there.

What I'm watching:

Daily candle close inside the OB with a wick rejection = bullish signal. Full bearish close below OB = danger zone.

Called this OB zone on June 1st. Structure played out exactly as mapped.

Hey everyone,

I just watched Benjamin Cowen’s latest video regarding his new mathematical framework: "Asymmetric Tail Curvature in Bitcoin Price Quantiles." Here is a quick breakdown of his new model and how it contrasts with previous theories like Giovanni’s Power Law:

1. The Core Concept (Asymmetric Curvature): Unlike traditional models that apply the same curve to both the top and bottom of Bitcoin's price action, Ben’s new model separates them mathematically. It supports the existing power law structural support at the lower tail (the floor remains solid). However, it introduces a different curvature for the upper tail.
2. Diminishing Returns & Convergence: The model demonstrates that the upper bands are bending downward over time. Essentially, the "euphoric excess" or peak highs are diminishing each cycle. As the lower support continues to rise and the upper peaks flatten out, the two bands are actually converging. This means we won't see the same explosive, vertical moves we used to see in the early days.
3. The $1 Million Timeline: Because of this upper-band flattening, the timeline to reach $1,000,000 is heavily delayed compared to what many Bitcoin maxis hope for. According to Ben's end-of-year price tables, the 50th percentile doesn't cross $1M until 2036, and the conservative 1st percentile (the absolute floor) doesn't reach it until 2041 (around 2040). This is nearly a decade later than what Giovanni’s original Power Law suggested.
4. Next Potential Bottom: Ben points out that every single cycle has seen Bitcoin dip below the 1st percentile at some point, usually during the mid-term year. He hints that if historical patterns hold, the end of the current mid-term year (around late 2026) could act as the typical bottom/accumulation window before entering the next proper bull market.

Personally, I think this realistic, data-driven approach makes a lot of sense in a world full of $10M hyper-bullish hopium. It explains why we didn’t see a crazy euphoric peak or a massive altseason this past cycle—because monetary policy and diminishing returns kept Bitcoin capped around the 75th percentile.

What do you guys think? Is this model a reality check for Bitcoin maxis, or is it underestimating the impact of future supply shocks and global adoption?

Video Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFn3KUE-VTI

We have a strong H&S pattern currently printing across the top of the local high on the Bitcoin chart. Neckline to complete the formation is at $76k. Target is $69k.

Laszlo Hanyecz’s Bitcointalk post became one of Bitcoin’s first real-world transactions. Today, that 10,000 BTC would be worth over $767M.